St George have a poor record against the Storm, so I wouldn't say they are any certainties. Melbourne haven't played well away from home this year however.

Saints are unpredictable, but should lift against the better sides at home nearing the semis, the roosters were flat against the eels and souths [in wet] but lifted for the saints and storm, their not one of my sides but i'm going to bck them tomorrow if their still around $1.60-$1.55, but i wont take under that. If i followed my price ratings last week i would have had 7/7 but left manly out, this week i think there are 5 favs under the odds, 1 even and 1 over the odds[knights the best value H2H]so i will betting exotics mostly.

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-05 19:29 ]

PLAYERS OUT OF TEAMS LISTED

STORM -S.HILL

BRONCOS -S.MINTO
-S.WEBKE

SHARKS -B.KIMMORELY [very unlikely]

Well I went against the world and bet on Melbourne +6.5. IMO most other people have made bets based on injury and no other data.

Good Bet Mr J. St.George are as reliable as throwing a stick to a blind dog,he might hear it and run its general direction or he might ignore it altogether,having said that,both teams when their on, play quite well ,its not a game for the faint hearted so i havent gone near it
cheers

Well there were reasons why I might've just stayed away:

1. Business end of season, Dragons should perform for this one.

2. Injury, my model doesn't factor in injuries so how much of a difference has it made?

3. Heavy action, coming in on the Dragons. Was it sharp (pro bettor) money or just public?

4. Melbourne have only won 2/8 away from home.

Reasons for betting:

1. Business end of season, Melbourne will play up.

2. Injury. When this info comes out, people often over value the importance. Melbourne are a good club so should have enough depth to allow the injury not to have a huge impact.

3. Heavy action. Other lines don't move nearly so heavily, unless there is an injury. In fact the only one I can clearly remember is Easts vs Knights when knights had countless players out. The advantage off one single injury can not warrant such a large bet as % of BR. My conclusion is that it's not sharp money.

4. Dragons have won just 4/8 at home, and just 1/4 vs a more important factor I'd prefer not to state.

Melbourne also fits a very important trend.

I agree that on their day both teams are capable of walking over pretty much any other team.

I weighed up the pros and cons and Melbourne came out on top.

My system picked melbourne, I just wanted to to more work on this one and make sure I was comfortable with it.

Hi there Mr.J
U seem to have a system that goes against public opinion most times and that no doubt impresses me. How long have u been sports betting mate? What is your thoughts on the three sunday games? I have all favourites winning...Bulldogs, Roosters and West Sydney and no doubt that kind of scares me some.

I'm actually more confident going against public opinion than agreeing with it. Bookies will always shade public opinion, so naturally value is more likely to be on the other side :wink:

Haven't done saturday/sunday games yet.

Been sportsbetting around a year now, but only started handicapping (making my own picks) a few months ago in Super 12s.

MR J, normally i would have stayed out of fridays game,[cant trust stgeorge]but this year melb have been dreadful on the road, only playing a couple of good halfs and their defence has been fragile for a while and while i agree most of the time 1 injury wouldnt move that much money, it depends if its a key player or not, there has been a few games this year when theres been a few out injured and teams backed heavily, penrith v melb,penrith v bulldogs plus others ,the smarties would have backed the dragons early before he was officially ruled out and the start [+3.5]is only 1 try any,thats nothing, i know after that every body jumps on the bandwagon and what started out value wouldnt end up being value,i missed the early price so instead of taking unders i went a saints try, first scoring play @ $2.15, even better value.

cheers

Knights by 7
Broncos by 6
Panthers by 12
Tigers by 2
Bulldogs by 20
Roosters by 24

Chuck