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  #11  
Old 21st August 2004, 10:22 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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And that's the thing about mechanical systems.How complicated would the program be.
All the data is in our heads,(not yours Mr J,not being an AFL follower for long),from watching many many games and rational thinking lets you come up with a bonus or penalty.
Tell you what Mr J.Here's my advantages for Round 22.Use them as you wish.
Collingwood 4
Richmond 10
West Coast 8
Brisbane 14
St.Kilda 14
Adelaide 6
Essendon 4
Geelong 8
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  #12  
Old 21st August 2004, 04:03 PM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Quote:
On 2004-08-21 00:42, sportznut wrote:
Carlton used to have a good home ground advantage at Optus Oval, but they are now going to give that up also.


Today's game is a good example. At a more neutral venue, you'd have to tip Melbourne but at Optus Oval, Carlton are playing out of their skins. Why on earth do they want to give up that advantage???
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  #13  
Old 21st August 2004, 07:10 PM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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I'm just make all games between 2 melbourne teams neutral.
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  #14  
Old 21st August 2004, 07:17 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Mr J.I'm sure you know very well if you are trying to frame a market,then an innaccurate market is worse than no market at all.
If you can't decide on how much to give a team,then give them a couple of points at least for the crowd support.
Could make the difference between winning and losing.
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  #15  
Old 22nd August 2004, 05:39 AM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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It's not that I don't know how much to give each team. What I'm looking for is which melbourne teams have a genuine home advantage vs other melbourne teams. To do this I just need to look at how teams perform specifically at that ground.

E.g, if Team A is strong at TD but Team B isn't, then Team A should get the home advantage. If Team B was just as strong at the same ground, it should be classed a neutral venue.

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  #16  
Old 22nd August 2004, 07:39 AM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Mr J, if you take a look at the results of the last few years, you may get an idea of which teams have done better at which venue, but here are just a few observations:

St Kilda are BRILLIANT at Telstra Dome. 20 from 23 in the last two years, including the last 15 in a row!!! Up until this year, Essendon were also terrific there. Not so good this year, but two of their losses were to the Saints. As I said, Carlton are the only Melbourne team with a genuine 'home' ground these days, and I think they are definitely much harder to beat at Optus Oval. Don't know why they want to give that up. Melbourne are usually harder to beat at the MCG than at the Dome.

By the way, Geelong play some of their games in Melbourne and some at their real home ground Skilled Stadium in Geelong. They're certainly tougher at Geelong.
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  #17  
Old 22nd August 2004, 08:22 AM
mug punta mug punta is offline
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The Blues have to move sportznut, because the pricks at the AFL are giving them 4 million to move to the telstra dome.
They are currently, financially well in the red.
It's a crying shame but the AFL is a big business these days and as a proud Melbournian it's sad to see the loss of our final suburban ground.
A lot of my best memories as a kid were going to Windy Hill to watch the Bombers or Moorabin with the old man to watch Plugger and Winmar destroy the opposition, but, unfortunately standing on the terraces sinking a cold one is a thing of the past.
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  #18  
Old 22nd August 2004, 08:35 AM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Really think the AFL should have spent some money helping the clubs upgrade all those suburban grounds, so that at least a few games each year could be played there.
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  #19  
Old 22nd August 2004, 08:39 AM
mug punta mug punta is offline
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No arguments from me.
I still stand when I watch the Dons at the telstra dome, but it's just not the same!
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  #20  
Old 22nd August 2004, 09:29 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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Well Telstra Dome is a very good example.
St.Kilda and Essendon both play well there.
But for me,if they played against each other there I would still give the home team a 3 or 4 point bonus for crowd support.
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