No, what I mean is you probally should've bet less.

The amount you stake on each bet should be related to the odds of the payout, and the size of your edge.

Also, your've bet on alot of BIG faves, which are hardly ever good bets. The bookies will shade these guys (ie offer a lower price than they should) as the public will unload money on them (and the bookies will clean up if the big favourites lose).

Using sportstab prices, this is what edge you needed to justify those stakes:

"$1000 James Hird Top Score for Essendon"
- 12% edge.
Ie he'd have to win this at least 70% of the time for your bet to be mathematically justified.

"$1000 Rewoldt Top Score for Saints"
- 5.6%.
He'd have to win this 82.5% of the time.

"$500 Riccuto to finish Top 5"
- 25%.
He'd have to win nearly 36% of the time.

"$2500 Tredrea to finish Top 5"
- 12.5%
He'd have to win 90% of the time.

As to winning all, even if you did have an edge this large on all of your bets, the chances you'll win all 4 are just 18.7%. You'd have a 51% chance of winning all the shorter priced 3. This is only if you had these sized advantages. In reality, you probally have much less or no edge at all.

Your most likely result is 3/4, with the shorter priced 3 all winning and Riccuto losing. You'll profit not far off half the time, the rest of the time you'll lose quite a bit (more than you won).

Why'd you choose these bets anyway?

Really enjoy reading the way you go about it Mr.J. Im learning everyday about changing my approaches and though processess towards gambling. Thanks

Most of my players are going shocking so far.

Note to self: Never ever consider anyone other than a midfielder in future. Never ever pick a forward, no matter how dominant a year they seem to have had. :roll:

Wont say i told you so. GO JUDDY!!!

Yeah, I backed Judd too, but a couple of the guys I picked for most team votes aren't even going to go close!!!

Can the umpires actually see more than half a dozen players on the field???

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-20 22:27 ]

Nah mate. its been a joke for years. Like I said when I first started on this forum, how could Tredders win when W.Carey and G.Ablett the best two forwards of the modern era couldnt win it.
How are you getting the votes if its not on telly up there

Listening to SEN's simulcast coverage on the computer and the AFL also has a live count on it's website.

Geez, I reckon Judd could win 3 or 4 of these things. He's only 21 and it's obvious the way he plays is a real vote catcher. As for Ricciuto, he's done brilliantly in a side that didn't win a heap of games.

He is a champion, no doubt, cant wait till he comes home to VICTORIA. Hopefully, the mighty Bombers can snare him

mug punta. you got no hope lol. He won't be leaving the eagles for along time yet. Judd done it easy in the end :smile:.