Yeh power ratings come from your own analysis. They're just something to start with, and you'll probally find most people have very similiar ratings. I think the most important part of using them is knowing how much to adjust them when needed, not the original rating.

Spotznut.The Champion ratings are mathematically calculated ratings players receive for their efforts depending on the disposals during the game.
What might seem insignificant is for example Buckley doesn't play.How do you know how much to deduct from the teams rating.
S'pose you can just guess,but that's why I will use the player ratings.
Not perfectly clear at the minute as to how,but as the greyhounds are eating me alive,I had better get my ******** into gear soon,before the fat lady starts singing.

Ask me next year Rabbitz!
And well done Sportsmad.
Can you keep posting please.Especially if that's the sort of material you are aware of!

I am looking at a tennis system using sort of the same principle. Taking the world ranking of a player and then dividing that number by the roung no. they went out in in their most recent tournament + the number of matches won against opponent. e.g Joe has a ranking of 60 went out in round three last tounament and has beaten Jim 3 out of 5 times his rating would be 60/3+3 = 10. Jim has a rating of 50 went out first round last tournament and has won 2/5 against joe his rating would be 50/ 1+2 =16.66 the player with the lowest rating would be the selection. Also room for adding extra points to the division side if one player is suited by the court, one player had a long tough match in the previuos round etc. Haven't bet yet but am starting to investigate previous results with positive signs. Any thoughts.

Ed, you'll have to convert the final ratings into percentages though. Ie, how much more likely is the 10 going to win than the 16.66'??

Rank might be judging skill, last round finished judging form and h2h might judge matchup. Problem with h2h is you have to know why one player has beaten the other. Was it experience vs inexperience? Surface? Style of play? Injury? Home crowd etc.

It might be possible to come up with tennis rankings using rank and recent form, and then make adjustments for h2h, matchup, surface etc. Think it's better just trying to create power ratings than using a simple formula. Try it anyway (on paper or something), see how it goes.

I'm working on an NBL system of power ratings.

Taking the ladder position last rnd and dividing by the wining margin and adding the no of games the team one agianst their opponant.

E.G. Syd Kings ladder position is 2 and the won their last game by 10 pts

Syd Kings 2/10+6 = a power rating of 6.2
Melb Tigers 10/15+4 = a power rating of 4.6

I'm still fiddling around with it.

Benny

The Tigers should have a negative rating-they are a disgrace!!!

For your information Spotznut,here were my ratings prior to the AFL Grand Final beside yours.

AFL
126 Port Adel 120
126 Brisbane 128
120 St Kilda 108
117 Geelong 106
111 Sydney 97
108 West Coast 99
105 Essendon 94
102 Melbourne 92
96 Fremantle 88
96 Kangaroos 86
93 Carlton 73
90 Collingwood 86
90 Adelaide 90
81 West B'dogs 66
81 Hawthorn 58
72 Richmond 55

You seem to be a lot more generous overall,but particularly to the lower ranked teams.
Do you think you can put the home dogs system to better use next year to maximise your profits.
Or are you still concerned that it will eventually fall apart?

Moeee,

I find if you have the top teams rated too far above the bottom teams, you won't come up with many upsets. You'll almost always end up with the favourites rated well on top. That's why I tend to rate them fairly conservatively. Usually I start the year with about 6 or 7 goals between top and bottom teams and by season's end that's normally about 9 or 10. I give bonuses of up to 3 goals for home ground advantage and up to 2 goals for head to head performance.

If the Homedog system carries on as it has done this year, it would be FANTASTIC, but chances are it could start to level out a bit. At the moment, I'm betting both the System selections and my selections equally but I might have to look at betting a bit more on the System selections in future.

Anyway Mo, here's how the system went on AFL this year:

34 bets, 24 wins
R1 Kangaroos (+6.5) vs Adelaide WON
R1 W.Bulldogs (+9.5) vs West Coast WON
R2 Adelaide (+11.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R3 Essendon (+7.5) vs West Coast WON
R4 Melbourne (+19.5) vs Port Adelaide WON
R4 West Coast (+5.5) vs Brisbane WON
R4 Adelaide (+5.5) vs St Kilda LOST
R5 Richmond (+10.5) vs Adelaide LOST
R5 Carlton (+12.5) vs West Coast WON
R6 St Kilda (+4.5) vs Brisbane WON
R6 Geelong (+4.5) vs Adelaide WON
R7 Kangaroos (+28.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R8 Hawthorn* (+8.5) vs Fremantle WON
R8 Geelong (+5.5) vs Melbourne WON
R8 Kangaroos (+15.5) vs Port Adelaide WON
R10 Carlton (+46.5) vs St Kilda LOST
R11 Sydney (+30.5) vs St Kilda WON
R12 Essendon (+8.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R13 Geelong (+19.5) vs Brisbane WON
R14 Carlton (+17.5) vs Sydney WON
R14 Adelaide (+7.5) vs Melbourne WON
R15 Hawthorn* (+7.5) vs West Coast WON
R16 Collingwood (+22.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R16 Hawthorn (+34.5) vs Port Adel LOST
R18 Adelaide (+8.5) vs Kangaroos WON
R18 Essendon (+11.5) vs Port Adel WON
R18 Sydney (+21.5) vs Brisbane WON
R19 Richmond (+33.5) vs Geelong WON
R20 Hawthorn (+41.5) vs Brisbane WON
R21 Collingwood (+15.5) vs Port Adel LOST
R21 Adelaide (+16.5) vs Geelong WON
R22 Richmond (+22.5) vs Sydney LOST
SF St Kilda (+7.5) vs Sydney WON
PF Geelong* (+30.5) vs Brisbane WON

By the way, the Homedog system has had 23 wins from 38 bets on the Rugby League, and as for Rugby Union, well how about 17 wins from 18 bets!!! If I thought for a minute that sort of strike rate would continue, I'd stop betting on anything else!!!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-11-14 09:40 ]

Make that 24 from 39 for Rugby League after this morning.