In my humble opinion the jockey is the second most important thing to the horse. Some other factors - like barriers - I prefer to ignore. People so overrate barrier importance I sometimes find I might score a couple of extra winners factoring them in but actually loose out on financial return because the winners I get are overall shorter priced. The success of the outside barrier system that went around on this forum a while ago almost proves that point.

Kenny

The funny thing is year after year the system performs badly at some courses (Ascot for e.g, always -10%) and year after year it performs well at others (Belmont nearly always +10 to 15%). Not only that, some courses have pretty consistently good months and bad months. Pinjarra for example Nov +30%, Dec +40%, Jan +25% and the rest of the year crap.

Nice day at Pinjarra Kenny.They keep you coming back.

For pure racing spectacle the Spring and Autumn carnivals are a joy and privilege to witness.I love them.The best thoroughbreds in this part of the world with the best jockeys fighting for top honours.It's the way it should be.

Tough time for punters though.Even the good provincial horses are reserved for these seasons.Hidden away under shade trees from the heat of summer and kept away from the flint hard winter tracks.They emerge to tantalise us during the pleasant months.

I find that my most successful punting is done during the off seasons.Only a few good horses around,just a handful trying to win.Despite all of the dodgy manouvering by the shysters it still seems easier to make money on the punt.

I'm going up to Taree tomorrow,was at Muswellbrook yesterday and Gosford last Sunday.If you don't believe that the "locals" know what's going to win most of the races,try attending these kind of meetings.It's an education.

Do your results indicate better returns during the off seasons??? Perhaps not,it's a bit like sex (if I recall) we all come at the same thing from different angles.Anyway.I really enjoyed your post.Good luck with your methods.They are based on sound logic and reason and clearly work for you.

Mate, when you put it that poetically it's almost a pleasure to lose! :-)

I tend to do best in June and August and not so bad in July. I put that down to Belmont coming on line. I can't believe what a contrast there is between Ascot and Belmont as far as my fortunes go. Never been to the courses but I wonder if the preparation area at Ascot is too close to the drinking trough. :-)

Well I've been twisting the grey matter around this question, and I haven't really come up with anything that would hold water. Obviously some horses are suited to some tracks, going, etc, but this does not account for the figures in the way you've broken them down KV. Why do you think the results pan out this way?

Also would I be correct in assuming that "well-tweaked" margins refers to something other than the 'standard' measures most often used - ie 1.5 kgs to a length?

I'm OK with statistics and what not but I'm just a novice at this racing game. I was hoping for some more suggestions from the seasoned campaigners. As Syllabus suggests perhaps different quality of horses at different times of year. I don't know how many horses travel to WA for races at different times - I only have form on horses that have run in WA so horses from NSW, SA, etc get under my Radar. Perhaps as you say my system suits more open tracks, I've only got maps of three WA tracks so I can't check that. I just don't know if there are unknown (human interference) factors which vary from track to track. I'd like to think not.



Yes, I reckon a horse that just sprinted 1000 metres on a fast track on a balmy summers afternoon and won by a length might have been considered to have won comfortably. On the other hand if a couple of horses had just ploughed through 3200 metres of mud and slush in the teeth of a gale the winner by one length might consider he'd just had a close race.