Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #11  
Old 4th January 2005, 02:59 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,020
Default

I think he means a 22% strike rate for each individual horse, so I guess that's 66% strike rate per race (give or take a bit for scratchings).
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 4th January 2005, 04:28 PM
La Mer La Mer is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 578
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
I think he means a 22% strike rate for each individual horse, so I guess that's 66% strike rate per race (give or take a bit for scratchings).


I doubt that there would be a 66% strike-rate - a strike-rate of that nature defies the maths and my experiecne of the tipsters poll would be that the top-selection would win more than the second, which in turn would win more than the third etc. My estimation would be that the strike-rate would be closer to 50% for the top-three.

Similar with Shaun's comments - with a 23% strike-rate the claim of 64% in the top-three does not hold-up unless there are a very small number of selections - simply in deference to the maths of it all.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 4th January 2005, 04:38 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,408
Default

WELL IN MY CASE IT IS ABOUT 20-25 RACES A WEEK IS WHAT I COVER
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 4th January 2005, 04:39 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,020
Default

The 22% Benny was referring to was an average of ALL selections, so undoubtedly the top selections' strike rate would be higher than that, probably around 27 or 28%. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a 60%+ strike rate for the top 3 picks, especially over a fairly short period of time.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 4th January 2005, 07:22 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,020
Default

Hmmm, just been looking back over some recent results and I have to admit that the 60%+ IS probably unrealistic. You're right, I reckon 50% is about all you could expect long term. Brisbane and Sydney both had a couple of good weeks but levelled off while Melbourne seemed to be difficult just about every week. Think Benny might have just been looking at 1 or 2 good weeks.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 7th January 2005, 08:53 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
Default

If one is looking at tipsters poll say the Australian.
All paper polls have the same SR as one another .

1st sel 30% =30%
2nd sel 15% =45%
3rd sel 10% =55%

This is based on 2 years results of all newspapers in Australia ,Individual Tipsters in those papers , Radio Tipsters , Jockey tips, Spotsman newspaper.ext.

I feel the best way to use these is to treat it like a 2 horse race & seperate the Top 2 selections (45%SR) , once you have worked out your selection , only bet it if it`s paying $2.80+ at jump time.
__________________
Cheers.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 09:37 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655