The problem, of course, is that eventually you reach your run of outs at which point you have to stop, and this gives back all your profits, plus more. The only way a staking plan that chases losses can work is if you NEVER stop betting, and the only way THAT can happen is if you have a virtually limitless bank, and can get set for whatever amount with a bookie, because betting into the totes of course is self defeating.


It looks to me that in your example, your bet size after a loser goes up by 50%. Using that rule, I worked out what kind of money we are talking about if you wanted to bet up to 50 losers. Although that is, of course, very unlikely to come in, it still just might, and you still might lose. In order to last 50 losers, though, your 51st bet would be $1,034,394,551. That's a 1 billion dollar bet, to recoup your initial $1. In order to cover all the losses to that point, as well as place the 1 billion dollar bet, you'd need a bank of 3.1 billion.

So, if you have 3.1 billion dollars spare, and you want to win around $100 a week by chasing your losses, you can risk your 3.1 billion dollars on a loss chasing progressive staking method. Make sure you find a bookie who lets you on, though, for that 1 billion dollar bet.

Oh yeah, and what if that 51st horse lost?

In my sample, the longest run of outs was 18. In that case, your 19th bet would be $2,397, and in order to cover that plus the losses you'd need a bank of $7,180.

The plan is still going very well , it has managed to double the bank in the last 14 days, betting every day.
I have experienced only one lot of 9 outs in a row & this was easily recovered.

It`s not much point betting these as lay bets because the lay odds will be very short , one has to keep in mind that the shorter the win price the greater the lay price .
E.g. if one wanted to lay a 10/1 horse to loose the lay price would be terrible, because its chance of not winning is very high as opposed to 6/4 chance where its chance of not winning is lower therefore its lay price will be higher.

I hope this answers your question?

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan
Thanks for your insight. I have been having a deco at this. I have gone back to 20 dec and it shows about 60% place winners at about level stakes. With an aggressive staking plan this can get about 15% POT. This maybe a safer option.

Can anyone give me some stats from data base based on favourite $2.8+ at jump more than 7 runners place only and expected run of outs?

Thanks in advance and i hope everyone has a wealthy and healthy New Year.
Regards Beton

The answer to your question

If chasing for the place ,it`s best to keep one`s bets to races with
8-12 runners only.
Test run over 10,000 races
Plc SR 60%
-4% LOT
longest run of outs =8

In races with 8-20
Plc SR 56%
-9% LOT
longest run of outs =9

Cheers

__________________
Cheers.

I forgot to add that the median figure is 5 outs in a row.
That run of 8 outs, only appeared once in every 1000 bets.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan
thanks
I have been analysing this longhand to find a pattern. I have looked at 400 races. There seems to be approx 40% losers 13% consist of one loss followed by a win 11% consist of two losses followed by a win 9% three losses followed by a win. 33%of winners (placegetters) get up next. I am sure these figures would prove to be consistent. My first sample was really good then my second random sample brought in reality. All in all a good pattern is emerging.

I am working to eliminate the bulk of the losers from the betting as chasing them only produces a loss. recovery from the single losses seems crucial. I welcome any advice

regards
Beton

Beton, Your info is interesting! In your post you say "33%of winners (placegetters) get up next". I am presuming that this means consecutive winners (or in this case placegetters) - am I right?
This is the kind of info I was looking for in my post in winning % of favs.

Place Staking Plan
CRUSHER STAKING PLAN

Increase the Placegetter bet by one unit after each bet that gets up for us , keep doing this until you have broken even or in front.

E.G.
10,10,10,10Place,20,20P,30P ext.

Trying to pick a fixed pattern is like anylising shifting sand.
I feel it`s probable best to except it`s foybles & maybe have a stratergy to deal with it,

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Just did a quick check on yesterdays results using this system
outly $35
profit $16
ROI 46%
longest run of outs was 5
because of the dau night meetings i went race to race link this
ROCKHAMPTON (QR)
MUSWELLBROOK (NR)
COLAC (VR)

untill they were finished then went
CANTERBURY (SR)
MOONEE VALLEY (MR)

you are always going to get variations in this system depending on how people test and at what prices they test with....but as a spot type of play it is very interesting....but would be time consuming watching all the races all day

Interesting figures, Shaun.

Don't like the idea of sitting watching a computer screen all day --- have got other things to do! But, I guess, the figures would hold true anyway even if you were only able to watch, say, 7 instead of 35 races??? In the long run the figures should even out to the same result. Any comment anyone?

After all on a given day there might be only 21 races, whereas on a Saturday there could be 50 or 60 races.