Thanks again for replying.

1. On short price - my cutoff is 1.10 on tennis.

2. My stats are based on Profit on turnover. This is an interesting discussion. Obviously your experience is different from mine. This is good.

Sure there are peaks and dips, but you can't predict when they will happen. That is my point. If you have a 60% capper and he goes 75-25, that doesn't mean he's 'due' for a bad run to knock him back to 60%. The most likely result is that he will hit 60% going forward, so by lowering your bet size or not betting at all, you are missing out on profits


I see your point, it just doesn't fit my experience. My experience is that the capper hits 40-45% to bring his overall seasonal average back to the 56% POT after the seasonal average gets above 70% POT. I agree, on short term fluctionations, you never know.

3. I noticed that you bet on hockey. I am Canadian and have never been successful on hockey, but still love the game. I realize this season was wiped out. How did your hockey capper go in 2003?


4. Sounds like the packages offered here are good. Any recommendations.

I am trying to make a living out of sports betting, so I value your opinion even if we disagree.

karla

"My experience is that the capper hits 40-45% to bring his overall seasonal average back to the 56% POT after the seasonal average gets above 70% POT"

I understand your logic. Often a capper will experience a 'correction', but this is random and not maths trying to bring the figures back to hit longterm strikerate.

"3. I noticed that you bet on hockey. I am Canadian and have never been successful on hockey, but still love the game. I realize this season was wiped out. How did your hockey capper go in 2003?"

Used to. Had this capper recommended to me who profited 175 units over the 2 previous seasons, something like 57.5%. I jumped on the bandwagon and watched him drop 20 units like *that*. I cut my losses and stopped betting the picks which continued to drop another 25 units.

"Sounds like the packages offered here are good. Any recommendations."

Yep. I'm a member of the tennis and mlb and they're great. Tennis is 13% over a few thousand bets, and mlb is 5-6% over 2800 bets. Haven't tried any of the others.

"I am trying to make a living out of sports betting, so I value your opinion even if we disagree."

Discussion is a great way to learn/develop sportsbetting skills. Keep it up.

Karla, you obviously know what your doing, however it seems by cutting back your bets when you hit 12% or so you are are minimising your return. If your selection process is providing good profit why reduce the bet size? It is as if you are betting more when your selections are losing then if they are winning. POT doesn't have to be described on a per annum basis, every year is just an extension on the previous. If your selections have a + edge of say 5% POT, your years will still greatly vary but over time should even themselves out and the longer you go the closer you should become to this 5% edge you have, in real terms. By lowering your bet when up a certain % you will alter and ultimately reduce this 5% egde you have. And just curious, do you spend the same amount of time and study on selections when only betting .5% as opposed to 2%? i think subconciously you couldn't, and you would make more (riskier) investments when only betting .5% and this could be a factor in the evening out process you are talking about.

Thanks Mr ed and Mr J for your replies.


I think I see the picture now. You guys think that all your betting is one long continous endeavour so predicting good and bad runs is counter productive to producing profit. You must be racing guys. I now see your point. Thank you.

I do look on it as a sesonal thing. In NFL, I try and get my 5% objective for the season and treat the next season as a completely new endeavour. Thus I am willing to sacrifice profit for the overall 5% and maybe missing out on greater return.

Ok, I will monitor this further.

By the way, if I would have quit for the year in NFL after the 3rd week when I hit 70%, I would have been further in front than I would if I bet the same for the whole year.

Karla

"You must be racing guys"

Nope. Tennis, aussie football codes and some US sports.