Karla, you obviously know what your doing, however it seems by cutting back your bets when you hit 12% or so you are are minimising your return. If your selection process is providing good profit why reduce the bet size? It is as if you are betting more when your selections are losing then if they are winning. POT doesn't have to be described on a per annum basis, every year is just an extension on the previous. If your selections have a + edge of say 5% POT, your years will still greatly vary but over time should even themselves out and the longer you go the closer you should become to this 5% edge you have, in real terms. By lowering your bet when up a certain % you will alter and ultimately reduce this 5% egde you have. And just curious, do you spend the same amount of time and study on selections when only betting .5% as opposed to 2%? i think subconciously you couldn't, and you would make more (riskier) investments when only betting .5% and this could be a factor in the evening out process you are talking about.

Thanks Mr ed and Mr J for your replies.


I think I see the picture now. You guys think that all your betting is one long continous endeavour so predicting good and bad runs is counter productive to producing profit. You must be racing guys. I now see your point. Thank you.

I do look on it as a sesonal thing. In NFL, I try and get my 5% objective for the season and treat the next season as a completely new endeavour. Thus I am willing to sacrifice profit for the overall 5% and maybe missing out on greater return.

Ok, I will monitor this further.

By the way, if I would have quit for the year in NFL after the 3rd week when I hit 70%, I would have been further in front than I would if I bet the same for the whole year.

Karla