
19th February 2005, 07:19 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 956
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Spark of Life apparently worked well at the Valley during the week. As you say, he will dictate, or at least he won't be pressured. He's the deserved top pick, b/c they WILL have to run him down, and they'll have to go to their best to do it. I think his TRUE (100%) odds are about $2.20, so if I were a bookie I'd have him at $2.00 at the longest. Ed while the $2.60 IS overs, I do agree with you there, I still think you'll get $2.60 today.
Bomber is evergreen, he doesn't know he's a 9yo. Super Elegant is flying, but as I said, he'll need to do his best to win. On my figs, if Spark does what he did beating Yell last prep, and Super goes like he did at the Valley 3 weeks ago, Super won't run him down. Again, if Spark goes like he did beating Yell and Bomber goes like he did at the Valley in October winning, he won't run Spark down either. Same thing for Cape of Good Hope. As an aside, I began rating Hong Kong late last year, and on my figures Cape of Good Hope returned the same last start as he did in his runs behind Silent Witness, which for me proves that I'm on the right track with the Hong Kong ratings scale. In that respect, Cape rated 1.5 lengths inferior last start to what Spark rated winning in October.
The others can only win if ALL of those four horses go below their best.
That being said, the race is up to Spark of Life. If it goes to it's best, it wins.
Have a good day all.
Duritz.
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