I know what you mean Blocka, and of course you are right [as was Mark], but the idea is not to work at or arrive at a market price for the field or to create a book, but just to see the relationship of your selection[s] actual value as a bet.

If a selections SR is 30% we divide that into a 100 and we get $3.33. That figure represents it's overall true value. Common sense then works out a suitable price that would reflect overlay value. It could never be purely mechanical of course.

Hey Crash i like that...sounds good to me....and like you said it is a way to find overlays you could esily use it just on the one runner you select and on some races it just won't work...but we don't have to bet on all races

Gday All

I have had a look at what Crash is saying here and it works pretty well... As some have said earlier it doesnt work on all races... but with a bit of thought It does work and you can apply it to all races where there are horses with a win % (obvioulsy).. For someone who does ratings, I think this could be useful if you say took your top 4 as you rated them and then compared them to Crash's idea.. and bet the overlay accordingly.

Before I get accused of backfitting.. these are my actual ratings for last in Sydney today

4 $4.9 DESERT DANE
7 $4.9 COUNT LUSKIN
5 $6.5 HOT COFFEE
11 $8.7 PENNY OPERA


Using Crash's idea the prices you need to back any of these horses is as follows..

7 1318 Count Luskin (2) $2.00 BET
4 04x5 Desert Dane (16) $2.38 BET
5 116x Hot Coffee (18) $4.76 SCR
11 78x9 Penny Opera (NZ) (7) $6.67 BET

For the record Count Luskin won paying upwards of 9 bucks.. and in that race it was the horse with the best SR clearly...

There were other races thru the day where it seemed to work well

Crash, this idea is one I never even considered, but it shows promise I reckon if you can apply filters... I think the top 4 in your ratings (or you could go wider or narrower for that matter) is probably not a bad place to start..

Thanks for the food for thought

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

Interesting example XPT.

The SP prices reflect the 18 runner field size, so I wouild be looking at adding from 75% to 100% to the prices needed before calling any price an overlay and even if 100% was added there are still some among your runners there.

Working out a simple %+ guide for various common race sizes would be pretty simple. Even for a 6 horse race though, I would want some % over to represent profit on a runner's actual 'odds' shown after converting from SR.
At least we wouldn't be betting blind value using this method.