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#1
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One way is to look at reverse form. The form shows that the horse #1 had placed 6 in a field of 14 and beaten by 2 lenghts LTO. This 6/14 becomes 0.428. 2LS was 3rd in a field of 10 beaten by a lenght. this becomes 3/10 or 0.3. 3lS was 8th in a field of 8 beaten by 6 lenghts. This becomes 8/8 or 1 a total of 1.728. Then factor in beaten lenghts. Last start and second last start were less than three lenghts so leave the result. The third last start was beaten by 6 lenghts, understandable at last place leave the result. Had this been only three lenghts I would reduce the the result of 1 or in the case of greater than 6 lenghts I would increase the result of 1. Similarily if beaten by less than a lenght I would reduce the result. Also factor in coming back from spell. 1st up multiply by 1.6, 2nd up by 1.3, 3rd up by 1.1.
Then factor in class. Going up multiply by 1.1, going down multiply by 0.9. do this for all horses and the lowest is top rated. And this is only the start of your final selection. You have then got weight, jockey, barrier, whether it's in the top five in price etc and if all else fails don't forget the dartboard. Regards Beton |
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#2
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Malcolm Knowles (www.inracing.com.au) Has an excellent series of articles using weight /time /class/ field strength ratings based on the WIZARD ratings .
Its called PICKING WIZARD WINNERS - THE MANUSCRIPT. I personally use it myself so I can vouch for its excellence. Good Luck darky. |
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