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#11
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Mistake?
I don't think so, I've seen this practice before. This guy has way more than $12,000 in his account believe me. Offering 1000/1 the field gives him a chance to have thousands and thousands of punters offer longer odds than they would normally on say a $2.50 shot. He can then lose up to $12,000, but incrementally match much larger wagers than the total cost of his lays. Laying the field at those odds disguises his intention to plonk on one or two particular horses with much larger sums. It pulls the price up by that many points it doesn't matter. I'll bet this was a hgh interest race with a lot of turnover generally.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg Last edited by Chrome Prince : 26th April 2005 at 10:51 PM. |
#12
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Chrome, there were basically only two chances in the race - number 1 which was the original favourite and number 2 which became the eventual favourite. Number 1 won.
Last edited by Sportz : 27th April 2005 at 06:18 AM. |
#13
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Quote:
I don't understand why thousands and thousands of punters would offer greater odds because somebody layed the field at 1000 to 1..? Are you suggesting that people would look at previous odds given and then think that all horses should be treated as 1000 to 1..? Wouldn't it be a better strategy to lay $4000 @$3 and try to get people to offer better odds than that so you can quickly grab them, knowing that it would start at $2.50? And he can't lose up to $12,000, he guaranteed losing $12,000 as all bets were immediately matched. This is alot of money to make up when less than $100,000 gets matched on the event.... |
#14
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Must be getting slow in my old age.
Assume the Crown & Chrome Prince....you've both lost me. |
#15
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Quote:
Phew, I'm glad you stated that Mark, I thought for a moment I might be suffering from Alzheimer’s or something, still not quite sure what point Chrome is attempting to make, but to my way of thinking, don't think that the liquidity is there in most of the Aussie markets on Betfair for such a strategy to work. |
#16
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Quote:
O.K. let me state it a bit better as I was rushed last night. I don't understand why thousands and thousands of punters would offer greater odds because somebody layed the field at 1000 to 1..? Are you suggesting that people would look at previous odds given and then think that all horses should be treated as 1000 to 1..? Not at all, the fact is that if someone else wants to lay any of the horses, their lay odds go into a queue, if they offer less than 1000/1, unless the 1000/1 is matched immediately. Therefore the higher the odds offered to lay the horse, the greater chance of it being the NEXT matched bet. I don't know all the details of when the 1000/1 was offered, or how quickly they got matched, but nobody is going to offer a lay price of $2.50 when 1000/1 is on offer, they have to make it attractive to the bettor. I'm not saying anyone's going to offer 1000/1 or even 10/1, but many would offer say 3/1 instead of 2/1 - or 6/1 instead of 4/1, therfore making his big plonk well worth it. And he can't lose up to $12,000, he guaranteed losing $12,000 as all bets were immediately matched. This is alot of money to make up when less than $100,000 gets matched on the event True he is guaranteed losing $12,000 in LAYS, but not in total wagers on the race. Yes, the liquidity would scare me, and I think it's a very dangerous practice, because there are too many unknowns, but all he has to do is wager $5,000 and get two points over what he would have gotten without the lay bets and he's well in front. I note Sportz's comment about the change in favorites and prices in the race. I'm sure the punter got a much better price than he otherwise would have secured. But I wouldn't do it. There are guys doing really weird and dumb things on BF frequently, such as offering 1000/1 in running (in the UK) before the horses even get to the home turn and 10/1 on an evens favourite, just because it's running 4th at the turn. This guy's method is not appealing to the savvy punters like Mark, but those who really don't know what's going on and follow the crowd.
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#17
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I still don't understand....
Personally if I wanted to lay the field, and somebody was offering 1000 to 1, I would first gobble up the odds the other guy was offering and then forget about the race and go and shout the pub a round...... |
#18
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Of course, but others don't think that way, and continued to lay the horses in the field at varied odds.
As I said, it's certainly something I wouldn't do, there are easier ways to make a dollar.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
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