I'm going to start with a clean slate in my punting ventures from today.
And this is my story.
I suppose the biggest question that needs to be answered is WHY GAMBLE?.
Seems a bit like "Why have sex when you don't wish to procreate?".
IT FEELS GOOD WHEN YOU'RE DOING IT.
Especially the bit at the end.
Unfortunately for me,the bit at the end comes in dribs and drabs rather than a full blown flood.Punting wise I mean!.Actually,come to think of it...?
So after 30 years or so of tackling punting,I'm going to try a new assault on the thoroughbreds.Punting wise I mean.
And I shall look at the bit at the end and attempt to increase the amount and frequency of the output.
How?.By going over my predictions and trying to modify my methods rather than the same old,same old.
First attempt will be by giving each horse in a race a percentage point relative to its perceived chances.Nothing new there.But where I hope to get productive is in the price I'm willing to accept.
It seems those professional raters back every horse at 20% more price available than their prediction.I am going to use a sliding scale.

I will take 87% on a perceived 100% chance.Or $1.15 is my lowest possibly acceptable price.
38% will do me on a 50% chance.Or 13-8 will do me on an assessed even money chance.
20% needs 11%.Or 8 to 1 about a 4 to 1 chance.
10% chance needs 4%.Or 25-1 about a 9-1 shot.
And $80 needed on a perceived $20 chance.
This will keep me away from the rougher selections which hardly ever win and keep more interest in the shorter ones only.Got to keep those satisfying end bits coming.

Anyway it all boils down to,"Hey dudes,look at me..".
Stay tuned.

Seems to me that it is not particularly difficult to come up with the winner as being top-rated.But to rate it at a price that is freely available is!
A lot of time can be wasted deciding whether a runner should 20-1 or 100-1.I have noticed now that that time is much better spent looking closer at the top 3 or 4 selections and getting them as accurate as possible.

Second thing I have noticed is that if a horse hasn't run for over 21 days,there must be a reason.It makes a big difference to success if that reason can be found.

So 2 new things for the newbie to allow for in his analysis and 2 reasons why I will only improve.

This is how my system is developing.

Starting from the bottom weight,put the runners in quickly considered finishing order,from first to last.
The last horse gets a rating of 1.
Then after looking closer at the form details,give each runner a rating compared to the runner below it,working your way up from the bottom of the list towards the top.Try to give ratings that convert to prices that look about right.
Once it looks like it can prove worthwhile ,I'll chuck it in a Excel attachment.

After 2 days of analysis,I realize I'm having problems knowing thr difference between a win in a Donald Maiden and a 5th beaten 2 lengths in a Symour Class 1.
And also whether a horse is a stayer or a sprinter.
Copping a bath at the moment,BUT,I'll be back!

Um, isn't a system supposed to be systematic?
Sounds like all you are trying to do is read the form.

Are you taking into account barrier trials and other such considerations because if you aren't I would think you are pushing ********e uphill with no shoes on....

Yes,I believe you need to read the form to find out the chances.
The system part is the amount,and whether,to bet.
More a staking system I suppose.