Thanks for the link La Mer, I think I found the reason why I do better mid week and better in Qld than Vic.: Qld and mid week races have a narrower spread of weights than Vic and Saturday races. Also interesting that in Vic (don't know about other states) they allot the top weight first and work their way down and therefore (by their own admission) there will be a group of horses at the limit which will be disadvantaged by the weight scale. Perhaps this is why topweights do well i.e. they are carrying an appropiate weight while those on the limit should be carrying less a lot of the time.

Mr Ed, you raise a valid point but personally I've never been one to back a horse after an unlucky run because I figure maybe that was their big chance this preparation and they blew it. Being hard ridden out wide or whatever must take its toll as well. Do many out there do well out of their "black book"?
Just because the Jock stuffed up last time doesn't mean they'll get it right next time!

Dirk, no different to a horse who has been ridden out fully to win a race, but many people will back it next start even though it is either up in class or weight or both. I am a firm believer that horses are of the most part a consistent animal, i base my selections predicting either an improved showing due to fitness or an equal performance of their last start. I don't subscribe much to over the top or past its peak until i witness it in a race, i don't try predicting it. As for having a hard run, it is not always the case many horses finish full of running because they haven't been given the chance to fully extend, and alot of the time if a horse has had a tough trip and no chance the jockey nurses the horse to the line. Just because its losing margin may be increased a good form student should be able to identify where the horse could have or would have finshed with a decent run. Anyway enough of these coulda, shoulda, wouldas i'm off to bed.


Good night, Ed