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  #1  
Old 20th June 2005, 10:57 PM
angel417 angel417 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Red face

I cannot understand why anyone would waste their money on an exacta.It is hard enough to pick the winner without having to pick 1st & 2nd in the correct order!!And can anyone tell me if you are so sure of 1st & 2nd why you would not hit the trifecta??AB/AB/field??The quinella is much better value,and they can finish in any order.However,to be successful in quinella betting you must bet to prices,not blindly follow the herd.If there is any show of interest I will start a thread devoted to quinella betting only.
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  #2  
Old 20th June 2005, 11:11 PM
good 4th good 4th is offline
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What about dutch betting Quinellas.
Maybe pick a couple of numbers, combos.
Dutch to win a set amount $100 or spread across the odds to spend $100

If the odds are good, win more than you loose.
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  #3  
Old 21st June 2005, 09:47 AM
Stix Stix is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
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Wink Betting strategy...

Angel,

I understand what you are saying.

The way I bet is that I usually:
  • only bet on a limited number of races where I think (in my mind) there is a horse that should win (say 1-2 per meeting)
  • have an exacta x 5 (with 3 for second, or some times 4 or 5 for second)
  • have flexi tri for 33%
I don't calclulate to win a certain amount, I just bet to win more than I out lay and then stop.

I have made a lot of money doing it this way, however I don't like to bet significant amounts of money (which is all relative to the punter in question...) on any particular race or "load up" (I'm a bit like a4brianp - steady as she goes). Granted, I may have won more than I have, but if the dog didn't stop to have sh*t, it would have caught the hare......!!

It's worked for me, so I'm happy.

Just a question - If you like quinellas so much, do you dabble in duets/any 2's ??

Yours In Punting

stix
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  #4  
Old 22nd June 2005, 07:00 AM
dimboola dimboola is offline
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I think SuperTab is bringing in Flexi betting in 2006 as well as first 4 over the line.
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  #5  
Old 22nd June 2005, 10:46 AM
angel417 angel417 is offline
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Posts: 43
Talking

Merriguy,
welcome back,I've been away a long time also.
Luv2bet,as far as I know,at least with unitab,a quinella & exacta both cost the same,$1,unless you take multiple quinellas,then you can use 50c units.I don't know if the exacta is the same as I have never taken one.
Theoretically I imagine the exacta would,or should pay more as not as many punters would get it right without the quinella option of your banker being able to run 2nd and you stillcollect if you have the winner.My point being that more people would collect from the quinella pool making the divvies smaller.
Kenny,I am bemused by your words.If you are sure of 1st & 2nd you would rather an exacta that will win than a trifecta that will probably lose??If you are sure of 1st & 2nd,and assuming right in your judgement,why not take an ab/ab/field trifecta?If you are right with 1 & 2,then you MUST get the trifecta,it can't lose.
Merriguy,
I don't have any rules of thumb as such.I look at the4 mainland states and concentrate on any race with the pp fav in the odds range 6/4-2/1.Then I run each one thru my selection criteria to determine whether it is a false fav or not.If it passes,I then run the next runners in the pp market,with a cutoff point of 10/1,thru another set of rules.
Things can vary(according selection criteria)some days being no bet in certain states,some races being only 1 or 2 quinellas,some races 5 qualify for 2nd place.
I work all my bets out on Friday night using the Wizard formguide.I do not have to watch the screen up to the last minute as I work on pp markets.
I use mathematically calculated expected odds quinella charts,so I know what my outlay is per race per state well in advance.
I know markets can and do change overnight,sometimes it goes against me,but on the larger scale I am well in front.
My s/r is a healthy 45%,am aiming to get it above 50% before years end.
cheers
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  #6  
Old 21st June 2005, 05:35 PM
KennyVictor KennyVictor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by luv2bet
1 unit on an exact costs double than a quinella so therefore has to pay double or better.


Have to say I disagree with you here Luv2bet. If you take an exacta on a short priced horse as first and longer priced horse as second you shouldn't expect to get as big a divvy as if you take the longer priced horse as first and the short priced horse as second. Obviously the chances of the shorter priced horse winning are better than the longer priced horse winning so the exacta divvy will be less.
Following on from this the quinella should be the average of the two possible exacta prices so if the shorter priced of the exacta's came up there is no reason why it should be double the price of the quinella.

I find if I bet on exactas using my best and second best rated horse in the right order I actually do better overall (only by about 5%) than if I put the same amount of money on quinellas using the same horses.

While I'm being disagreeable :-) I'll disagree with Angel as well. If I'm sure of first and second I'll take an exacta I think is going to win rather than a trifecta that, although it might be worth more, is probably going to loose.
My system comes up with 8.00% strike rate on exactas, and only 2.23% on Trifectas - 1 win in almost 50 is a long time between drinks.

KV
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  #7  
Old 21st June 2005, 11:39 PM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
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Thumbs up

Some interesting stuff here guys. Thanks. These forums are at their best when there are plenty of inputs and sharing. Have been a way for a while. Missed you all. Aw shucks!!

Angel, is there a 'rule of thumb' to give you an idea of what to invest for your $100, say, return --- or do you have to watch the prices to the last minute. You say you invest on all three TABs so I guess there must be some (relatively) easy way to guesstimate what the reurn will be?!?
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