[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2002-12-04 18:20 ]

Hi Puntz
it took me 9 months of collecting every day , before I decided to let the TV test it and they proved that I am right and it works , it wasn't a fluke.
What makes it work is the combination of the selection method which does not take into account any dividends or prizemoney, thus giving it a FULL chance to become a decent price and then the combined Maths of the spreadsheet ensures that accurate calculations can be achieved , thus saving on expenses, before collectin on a winner.
I doubt if any Mathematician can test the two combinations and I can't see what that proves anyway, but I won't mind as the outcome of such a test makes no difference to what is happening in reality.
That would only show one way or the other and if the profit keeps coming in every day like it has so far, then I don't really care what the outcome is and it won't benefit anyone else either.

regards Bert

Agree puntz to a point.

Wright Bros etc were ridiculed and so were early explorers for saying that the world was round and not flat.

Centuries later we know that since Einstein, and many of the great mathematicians, despite huge technological advancements, the laws of probability, relativity and physics remain unchanged.

What is or is not possible mathematically is not governed by our imagination or past inventions or for that matter future ones, but rather basic mathematical probability. If as claimed, this system has had not one losing day, then surely the starting bank should have progressed to the point of being able to break every bookie in Australia.

That has yet to happen, basically because the odds made available are structured so that the bookie always wins a % on every race and the punter is at a disadvantage.

Even at 1% of the bank every day for 9 months this would accumulate to an enormous figure requiring neither subscribers, nor further advertising.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-11 01:08 ]

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2002-12-04 18:21 ]

Puntz,
I am not exactly a mathemetician but I have studied statistics at university level (ANU) and I am also somewhat of an expert with Excel (having worked for Microsoft in the past). Having tested Berts system yesterday and studied the underlying formulas, etc, in his spreadsheet I have the following opinion/conclusions/analysis (call it what you will).

The "target betting" is really no different to a loss-chasing staking plan. All Berts spreadsheet does is look at your daily expenses and losses so far and then sets the next bet amount to recover that amount plus your target ($5). eg. If you have $5 expenses and have bet $90 so far today then the next bet would try to win $100 (90+5+5) - so if dividend is $5 the bet would be $21. No great mathematical genius required for this - anybody could work it out with or without a spreadsheet.

The selection method - I have no real idea on how he came up with his selections but am sure it was through some formula (you couldn't do form analysis on that many races in the time available). Suffice it to say that based on the selections yesterday and some of his previous results there is no real magic here - the strike rate multiplied by average dividend is well under the value required to break even at level stakes.

So how has he won every day for 9 months?

Well the first point is that yesterdays results make this claim somewhat questionable - maybe he has but other people (ie. Me!) following HIS RULES EXACTLY with the information available made a loss yesterday. There are also other days in his results that show a loss following his rules (one day last month on dogs/trots and another day when there was a dead-heat).

In my opinion if he has won for 9 months straight (ignoring the losses listed on the website) this is nothing more than pure luck. The "secret" to his success is getting at least one $4 winner each day - if he does that he makes a small profit - if he has a day with no winner then he loses big time. In the long run can anyone guarantee at least one $4 or better winning selection? Of course not - sooner or later you are going to have days where you miss.

The simplist way to look at this statistically is to compare it to the old "doubling" scheme in roulette. Let's say I want to make $5 a day. Each day I go to the Casino and put $5 on red at roulette - if it wins I put the $5 profit in my pocket and walk away - if it loses I double it ($10) and keep doubling until I win and walk away with my $5 profit. My bet sequence is therefore 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640 - if the 640 bet loses then I blow my bank. The chance of this happening is roughly 0.5% each day - so 99.5% of the time I will win my $5, 0.5% of the time I will lose $1275. Now the chance of me being able to win every day for 9 months is around 26% (.995^270). Now the maths for Berts system will be a lot more complicated as it depends on his strike rate and the number of bets per day (ie. he will be more likely to survive a day with 50 bets than one with only 20 - but will lose a lot more if the 50 bet day fails) but the principle is exactly the same - if his selection system loses at even stakes (and he doesn't deny that it does) then in the LONG run (and 9 months is not really the long run) it will lose.

In summary if you want $5 a day then go to the casino and play roulette - if you're lucky it will work for a year and you will only waste 10 minutes of your time each day instead of many hours.

Hi you guys
Just a comment or two...

Listen to yourselves! I am surprised you guys do not want to have it tested first for two thousand years to see if it makes a profit! Come on!

It is NOT PURE CHANCE- so the roulette comparison is really TOTALLY irrelevant! Even if he picks barriers it is not pure chance... if he picks it on stats.

I am sure you guys each has a much better selection system and make zillions from the bookies- this is the true reason the bookies are folding and the TAB is taking over, right? LOL!

I think you guys just prefer that warm fuzzy feeling which "tells" you "Fast One" is the horse which is going to win... How many of you guys make a profit or punt professionally? And if you do, would your your selection method stand up to the kind of scrutiny you suddenly want to impose here?

If you do not find a method which works for such a long time- nobody else can, eh?

Jeeeeez- the guy is at least not charging you $10,000 like some **********; at worst it is like paying any tipster, and he seems to be willing and able to stand up and be questioned in public on his results. AND I am sure he has some customers who are too busy making money to hang around forums trying to improve their strike rate, and NO costomers smearing his name on the "********" sites. AND I am sure some of the characters hanging around my local TAB could do worse than pay to have ANY kind of assistance in turning a profit...

Bert, you keep up the good work mate. What these guys really want is somebody who could remove ALL "chance" altogether from racing... then they'd probably want a free year or two to try it out too. Or have a mathematician proof it does not work, and therefore refuse to apply it themselves... LOL! But they are basically a good lot of sceptics- I have learnt a lot from this forum and will continue to do so.

Supersoul,

Are you a mate of Bert's?

Anyone can pick 1 winner out of 38 races.
Anyone can employ a pyramid loss-chasing staking plan.

Why would they want to pay $33/week for the privilege?

You say users are too busy making money? They only make $5-20 per day gross??? and that takes several hours of looking at prices and spreadsheets.

Bert charges $33/week or $4.70 per day.

So people only make 30c to $15.30 per day for several hours work. Meanwhile they risk losing $1000 if they make a mistake like Becareful.

The sorts of figures this system produces is comparable with a sweat shop in Asia. The workers make $100/week while the boss gets 000's!

Well said supersoul.

If it doese`nt suit ones temprament, its best left alone.

If one struck 8 outs in a row it would be a strong idea to divide the outstanding target by 3 or more & spread the remaining 2/3 or more, over the next 2 or more, targets.

That way you protect the bank & in the long run, one should recover all losses + target . It just takes a little longer to recover. Thats OK , the end result is the same.

At the end of the day one still has to be able to pull a winner in the sequence regardless of the staking plan.
Use his staking plan on your selections & see how you fair .
I can only agree with the conservative target percentage because the average punter would freak out & panic if it were any higher.

One has to have a "what if" plan if one is keen on progression punting, so as to be able to handle the enevitable run of outs.

I personally would back any selection paying $3.50+ but still using a Min. divisor of 3.5 that way you minimise the damage & left to fight another day.

__________________
Cheers.

Supersoul,

A couple of FACTS for you:

FACT - There are no secrets to Berts staking plan - it is a simple loss chasing system.

FACT - Bert acknowledges that his selections MAKE A LOSS at level stakes.

FACT - It is easy to prove mathematically that any system which loses at level stakes will also lose in the long run regardless of staking plan. How long you can go without hitting that loss is basically determined by what the loss % at level stakes is and how big your bank is (or what the bet limit is). If you are betting on selections that lose money at level stakes then it is EXACTLY the same as playing roulette.

FACT - following his system yesterday I lost over $1000. Now whether I made a slight mistake or not it would take months to recover at $5-$10 per day. Do you want a system where you can lose 3-6 months worth of winnings because one selection was showing $3.70 on your screen instead of $4.00?

Now if you feel that his is a good system then go ahead and buy it. I just question why anyone would spend that money to get a very basic staking plan (I will happily give you the details for free) and a load of selections that make a loss at level stakes.

Hi Bert
Any chance of filling in the starting prices of all your selections on your (next)spreadsheets?

If your number of selections at $10 plus are reasonably low- ie your strike rate for the $10plus selections are OK, you might have a new customer- me! Or even say $8 plus...

I suppose I can go check myself, but not having access to a database means doing it manually ie hours of toil...

It's just that I am greedy, and want to make easy money fast - unlike normal punters... LOL!