That theory of topweight in a Welter is another myth to be busted.

517 Topweights in Welters

Return $380.60

Loss 136.40 units or 26.38% LOT

There were only two in my database running over exactly 2400m and both lost.

The one's that started at greater than $6.00 on the tote were 278 for a return of $162.20 and loss of 115.80 or 41.65% LOT

NB: Flying Welters not included

MYTH BUSTED

I've long held the suspicion that bookmakers started these myths and sent them around the rings shouting "look there's another one that just won" to perpetuate it.

So far I've busted:

Topweight in a Welter
Horses For Courses
Avoid horses second up
Avoid wet tracks (did you know Fast is the very worst going to make a profit?)
The impact of weight
The impact of time
Track Record breakers
Odds On Look On

To name just a few.

Take all these myths and lay 'em like there's no tomorrow and win big.

The bookies version of the Da Vinci Code - BUSTED

__________________
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I bet you always wanted to be a policeman when you grew up Chrome.

JUST WANTED TO CLEAR UP THIS SAYING. WHEN I WAS 14 I WAS GOING TO THE RACES WITH MY DAD. WE USED TO GET STAND TICKETS AND I ACTUALLY HAD A FRIEND UP THERE CALLED IAN CRAIG THE RACE CALLER FOR 2KY. EVERY SAT AT WHEN THE RACES WERE ON AT RANDWICK ID ALWAYS HAVE A CHAT TO HIM. VERY FRIENDLY MAN WHO ALWAYS TOOK TIME OUT TO SPEAK TO ME. THE SAYING BACK TOP WEIGHTD IN WELTERS WHEN IN DOUBT MEANS EXACTLY THAT. I NEVER BET THE TOPWEIGHT IN WELTERS IN EVERY RACE EVER!!!! ITS ONLY WHEN I WAS DOING THE FORM AND SY I HAD 2 TO 5 HORSES MARKED OUT FOR A WELTER RACE AND I COULDNT MAKE UP MY MIND IF IT SO HAPPENED THAT ONE OF THOSE HORSES WAS A TOPWEIGHT WELL THEN I WOULD BACK THE TOPPY, AND THEN IN THAT CIRCUMSTANCE!!!

REMEMBER WHEN IN DOUBT BACK THE TOPWEIGHT DOES NOT MEAN BACK THE TOP WEIGHT IN EVERY WELTER!!!!

JUST WANTED TO CLEAR THAT UP

REGARDS BREADMAN

GOOD LUCK AND GOOD PUNTING

__________________
LOve all sports.

Hehe, I just love busting myths.

__________________
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Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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Breadman, I understand what you're saying and under those circumstances, perhaps it would work, but with such a poor loss on turnover, looking elsewhere might be better. Topweights win very few Welters.

The fact is, that no matter how I tweaked the rules Topweights came out worst of all. Even when favourite, they have a much worse strike rate than favourites overall which gives a big indication.

As for Ian Craig, he does know a bit about punting, in fact, one of his sayings actually works very well with filters.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

(1) MAIN GAME EW!

..narrow win but got there!

Like the toppy COPPER PENNY!

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Copper Penny finished 3rd (made profit on EW) also jagged nice tri with Cambric winning from Circus Maximus

Like the toppy BECKS!

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