I believe most of the winners were wearing snorkels it was that wet!

I reckon there's a couple of ways of tackling this:

1) Lay each selection for a fixed stake and ride the troughs and peaks. They post their results this way.




2) Use the reduction factor (or other PP market) as a guide to place each selection in one of the three "Maria" price bands and then vary the stake accordingly. I've been doing this but have been ignoring those that fall into the 3.50 or below band, and haven't worried if a selection moves into another band during betting. Hopefully the troughs won't be quite as big, and the peaks will stay the same.

NB: If using the reduction factor as a guide, be aware that it can change during the betting.

Either way, getting the lowest possible SP is key, this is where the "Auto-Betfair" tool comes in as it gives us the ability to place our lays at a particular time. I'm sure there's other (better) tools that do the same thing but this one came to hand easily.

From observation (not exhaustive) you get close to the best SP as follows. Anybody more familiar with the UK markets please chip in here.

1) If it looks like your selection will start favourite (generally the top listed runner) then place the lay just before the jump.




2) If not the favourite, place the lay 7-10 minutes before the jump.

I'll carry on using the selective approach for a while as see what happens. I'm only using "little" money at this stage.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Thanks, Pixie, for your thoughts. Being a bit slow on the uptake it will take me a while to get my head around what you have said.


It is worth looking at their results 'proofed' to 'Racing Index' --- a very common resource on the web which I am sure you would know; if not Google it.

I keep thinking of Maria's 'need' for results in the mid-80s% for success.

Cheers

Ok let's have another go. Looks like Betfair aren't fielding at Hereford so those Donkey tips are automatically out. Instead of quoting prices we'll have a go at quoting times when the lay should be placed. We'll tell "Auto-Betfair" to take any price up to $11 inclusive. We're ignoring any selection with a Reduction Factor greater than 28.5% as at 21:30 AEST.

Race Time - Name (Lay Time)
===========================
01:30 - Zelos (01:23)
01:30 - Miss Saafend Plaza (01:23)
01:50 - Strike Force (01:49)
02:00 - Blackmail (01:53)
02:30 - The Fisio (02:29)
03:20 - Ever Cheerful (03:19)
03:30 - Chimes At Midnight (03:23)
03:50 - Luxurix (03:43)

Have a good one

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Doh! I thought those Daily Donkeys were up a bit early. Just noticed a whole lot more including ones I've missed. This is going to end badly I can tell.

Anyway here's the remainder

Race Time - Name (Lay Time)
===========================
02:30 - Cosmic Destiny (02:23)
02:50 - Supercast (02:49)
03:00 - Danetime Lord (02:59)
03:20 - Devon Flame (03:13)
03:50 - Aquatic Gamble (03:49)
04:00 - Earl Kraul (03:53)
04:00 - Saucy (03:59)
04:20 - Ballyshane Spirit (04:13)

Cross your fingers

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I've just killed the Donkey. No more for me. Rest of the lays cancelled whilst I'm only a little bit down overall.

I'm sure there's a valuable lesson to be had here, it's just not springing to mind at present.

Your on your own Merriguy

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Valuable lesson 1: 95% of punters lose!

Or... always look a gift Donkey in the mouth.

The whole night turned into a shambles after I completely missed half the selections. At that point I knew I was going to be punished.

I've never been comfortable following somebody elses tips. You just can't have the same degree of confidence. Fortunately the whole episode has only cost many hours of sleep and $43.

Gave me some good ideas for the "bot" I hope to develop.

Word of caution. Anybody considering following the Donkey should be aware that their published SP's just don't exist in reality.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

12/16 of your lays would have been winners --- but, of course, that means 4/16 came in as winners (losers for the layer!). 25%.

Their picks also "won" 25% (7/28). Overall they won on the day using their system --- but the win was only $27. One can hardly expect a big win every day, and according to their figures they are still up $4670 this month (on $100 stakes). You said yourself (in Post #7):

"So the Donkey team are 4368 up after 3 days! Correction looming I think."

Can anything come from this?

Merri

I think if you followed all the selections long term you'd probably just break even. It's just not possible to get the prices they quote, so your starting from behind.

A secondary filter may be your friend. I've an idea and I'll post those tonight but will not be investing.

The UK markets intrigue me. Even though I'm a tiny $46 down on the Donkey lays, overall I'm up as I've been trading various horses between races.

Stay tuned

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

AP,

Have you considered this...

Just putting a price cutoff of $11.00 means you can be laying up to $11.00 on a $4.00 shot. You have to lose in that scenario.
What you need to achieve is unders, if not always, most of the time.

If I were to use the Daily Donkey, I would look up the Racing Post prepost and rule out anything over $11.00 prepost.

Then deduct 20% off the prepost price.

Don't worry about all the one's you miss out on or don't get matched on, the one's that do will more than compensate.

Having said that, I would concentrate on first or second favourites, because it's very hard to get matched under the odds on horses @ 10/1, but it does happen.

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