Should be grateful for small mercies

Bit snowed under this week so will put this on the back burner till I get a chance to think it through a bit more.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

NCLE01-08 Queen Nadima
E_FM01-08 Gonzalo

More to follow.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Remember to be sensible about the prices you take with these. These are raw selections based on a single factor so you'd be wise to employ some filters of your own.

CRAN08-05 Archachon

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Morphetville race 2 should be

MORP02-02 Exalted Time

NOT

MORP02-03 Jeune's Reign

Sorry

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

TWBA03-06 Creswina
TWBA03-07 Ultra Modern
TWBA04-06 Rockababe
TWBA04-07 Catch The Cougar
TWBA05-08 Regal Charmer

CRAN08-07 Mr Wang

ASCT05-01 Is Amazing
ASCT08-03 Boy Canny Go

That's it. I promise

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

That went pretty well really.

Sorry to have posted the selections in such a disjointed fashion, but I was running badly behind today. Will have another go on Anzac Day and will get them all up before the first ... I hope.

As mentioned earlier in this thread it was my intention that you'd apply your own filters to these selections. The most obvious one would be price, and as you can see from the price figures after the selections name, quite a few of these were uncomfortably long. A maximum lay price of 11.00 seems to be the cutoff for many lay methods I've seen and interestingly that's not too different from the 11.25 median of the prices below. I'll use 11.00 as the maximum when posting results. I won't apply any other filters, but if you have any you like please feel free. Prices are from B.A.T.

Laying all these selections would have lost you 7.4 units (-24.67% ROI), but by laying all selections starting at or below 11.00 you'd have won 4.60 units (+30.67% ROI)

ASCT05-01 Is Amazing 4.00 ... WON -3.00
ASCT08-03 Boy Canny Go 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
CRAN08-05 Archachon 14.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
CRAN08-07 Mr Wang 12.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
E_FM01-08 Gonzalo 19.50 ... LOST TOO LONG
E_FM02-07 Leica Launch 15.50 ... LOST TOO LONG
E_FM06-01 Magically 6.40 ... WON -5.40
E_FM06-02 Love And Money 7.40 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM06-09 No Mistake 46.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
GCST05-04 The Chanster 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
GCST08-05 Tag 15.50 ... LOST TOO LONG
HAWK03-01 Hadaaf 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
HAWK03-06 Count Milano 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
HAWK04-10 Hesiod 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP01-02 Dandy Jester 27.00 ... WON TOO LONG
MORP01-03 Foolish Lad 15.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
MORP02-02 Exalted Time 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
MORP04-04 Isanami 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP04-07 Maloose 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
MORP07-03 Reshuffles 21.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
NCLE01-08 Queen Nadima 6.00 ... LOST +1.00
SANL05-06 No Trouble 19.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
SANL06-10 Satin Robes 11.50 ... LOST TOO LONG
SANL07-01 Sarrera 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
SANL08-07 Rulan Ruby 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA03-06 Creswina 12.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
TWBA03-07 Ultra Modern 44.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
TWBA04-06 Rockababe 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA04-07 Catch The Cougar 16.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
TWBA05-08 Regal Charmer 85.00 ... LOST TOO LONG

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

We'll just stick with meetings on Saturday and the occasional public holiday.

It's early days so these figures will vary alot. With a bit more data we should be able to fiddle around and find the sweet spot.

===
RESULTS: April 21st

All
===
Number of Selections: 30
Observed Successes: 27
Expected Successes: 26.89
Advantage: 0.41%
Success due to luck: 94.75%
Units Profit: -7.4
ROI: -24.67%

11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 15
Observed Successes: 13
Expected Successes: 12.72
Advantage: 2.20%
Success due to luck: 84.02%
Units Profit: 4.60
ROI: +30.67%

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash