Hey Every Topic,

You have to be careful about assumptions. Favourites do not come in more often than the rest of the field. And even that depends on the class, type, etc. of the race. It can vary from 14% to 51%! On average it's about 33% (http://www.adrianmassey.co.uk).

On the opposite end of that scale, 74% of horses at 1/2 or less come in. So how about a mathematical approach?

In races where the horse is not odds on (around evens or better) and the tipsters can't seem to agree on who is the best you have some tasty uncertainty. Dutch all but the favourite and the long shot with an expected return of 5% of your bank.

Either that or leave the racing form in front of you while drinking coffee. If there are any drips, take that horse. Someone else tried giving his 2-year-old a pen and leaving the paper in front of him. Week 1 = 27% return. Week 2 = 100% loss. Some variability in that approach that is hard to live with. :lol:

-Duck

The coffee method sounds promising. Would it work as well with decaffeinated?
Thgis is a bit like a system I meant to follow up several years ago but Sportsman and the Wizard couldn't supply the hard data required to research it comprehensively.
I revolved around backing the horses of certain strappers when they (the strappers) were first up from a spell (i.e. returning from their annual leave). Nowadays this could probably be refined and one could concentrate only on those strappers resuming from stress leave on heavy tracks.

Dear Mr Duck,

what I actually wrote was...
"Even the idea that the fav comes first the most often etc... should open the gate to logical conclusions that allow for profitable betting. I just have to get my head around it a little more"
(the etc in the above should not be glossed over)

this is not the same as your assertion that I said the fav comes in more often than the rest of the field.

I am not interested in the rest of the field.
I am interested in being correct more often than is necessary to make a profit.

At the time I wrote the original post I had played around with a few mathematical options - when I say mathematical I dont mean picking the field or many runners, but picking one runner in a race with no regard to form whatsoever - because in my ever so humble opinion I am now convinced that the mass of punting money is the truest indication of form, generally, and I see no point in arguing with it or fighting against it.

Finally after trying to come to grips with this in many ways I am now confident that I can do it. If you see me driving around in a new Porsche and living in a palace next Christmas you will know I succeeded :smile:

Last week someone posted their guarantee to winning every bet -interestingly my method is similar to that, but more modified, and I was amazed at how many thought the post was a joke !

Sometimes it pays to have an open mind...

before someone jumps up and down and says " tell me about it!!!", allow me to reply by saying it took me a lot of ************ing around to figure this out. Anyone with an open mind and prepared to throw a few ideas around will also find mathematical non form based systems of their own.

A good starting point would be to read the thread of last week, and read it carefully and with an open mind. Dont copy it, look at it from all angles and apply logic to the suggestions made.
There is great profit in that post!

in fact, my version of it is running at a smidgen over 50% POT and most of the time I have made my dough on the first race.

If I never have to look another form guide in the face again I will be a happy man.

see ya
Every Topic

Ok - let me take an educated guess at your system:

1. Selection is tote favourite just before jump time.
2. Staking system is a loss chasing system aiming to recover any losses and make a profit with next selection.
3. Either stop after first win for the day or revert back to base bet and keep going (in this case carry forward any losses at end of day to first bet on next day).

There are probably a few additional rules to deal with equal favourites or if favourite is shorter than a cut-off price.

System will always give a profit unless bet size gets out of control before a favourite wins for the day.

If this is roughly correct then the thing you need to work out is how many losing bets can you have before the bet size exceeds your limit and how likely is this to occur. Using a loss-chasing progression on favourites can increase bet size VERY quickly, particularly if you include odds-on favourites (your bet size can more than double with each loser) - from a base bet of $10 you could easily be betting $1000 after a dozen losers. When I did some research on favourites last year I managed to find one day when no favourites won at the 3 TAB meetings run (24 races) - could you withstand a 24 race losing streak?

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Every Topic
I too use a mathematical non form based 'system', that has won every year since I first used it on 19/11/88, even though many have told me it's impossible & can't work!!
Go for it, think outside the punting square.

:smile:

thanks Mark, yes there is more than 1 way to slay the beast :smile:

Becareful...
not playing favourites although I suppose a few of them are the favourite.
And yes there are price cutoffs.
Of course if one is chasing the winner then it might involve longer losing streaks, but if one is chasing placegetters then the losing streaks become a lot shorter, dont they!

there is nothing wrong with loss chasing mechanisms if applied to the correct data and when also adding a stop.

of course, each to their own. One should use whatever suits their personality.

see ya
Every Topic

Hey, Every Topic, didn't mean to offend if it seemed that way. I'm all for any approach you suggest and willing to help any way I can. I was serious about the dutching thing. I really don't think I'm too far off with it. Ask around here and folks will tell you I'll put together spreadsheets, databases, calculations, whatever. I certainly do have an open mind, no worries there.

As for mathematical methods, that's what I'm looking for. Actually, I blame Mark for getting me started on this! I've been working with folks on the UK site. There's some great resources and databases for UK.

And if all this doesn't work I'll have to go begging back to Mark. :grin: I'll figure this out yet!

Duck, let me give you an example of what I refer to as mathematical systems...
I use one for thoroughbreds and trots and I'm sure you could also do it for greyhounds.

Last night using the trots method, 11 races 9 winning placegetters - minimum price $1.40, best price $2.50 and double on the two losing bets.

I'll take it , thanks. No form, no research - just logic.
Very simple, very effective.


non racing example - NBA
after the first month I look at the spread records of the top half a dozen teams. Any suspect teams I ditch and from then on I bet the spread for each of those teams every day they play.
I dont care who they play or where, I bet them. I dont care if they win or lose.

If they win, I bet the same unit the next time they play.
If they lose I triple the bet for the next game, this guarantess that I win every bet regardless of whether the team makes the spread or not.
Unlike dice throwing, spreads are manipulated to prevent streaks so it works in your favour.
Longest losing streak - 3.

this is not rocket science, but I suspect it offends some people who would like to see themselves as experts in selecting winners.
I , personally, just want to make the money :smile:

see ya
Every Topic

i will give you my old mums system but will make no comment on it as i reckon its b.s but she loved it as well as arguing the toss about it.bet the grey horse if its priced between 2/1 and 11/2.

Darkydog - I don't think my mother ever placed a bet except for the Melbourne Cup each year but she used the same system - bet on the grey one! :smile:

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson