beton, your response shows that I've not explained myself at all properly.

I'm looking for the horse that has an excuse that's gone UN-NOTICED ..... I can see how I didn't convey that message.

The "unlucky horse" is the one I would most avoid ..... all the lemmings are on it, it's like the black book system.

Hi Barny,

You could put Shenzhou Steeds in this basket.

Beaten easily (7.8 lens) as a very short priced favourite at Caulfield on 26th May.

Trainer (M.Moroney) takes horse to Ipswich for Ch7 Ipswich Cup, up 515m and wins at $8 SP. As you said trust the trainer!

Hi Barny,

Kinky thinking is good!! Keep it up.

An interesting runner at Mildura today was Master Houdini in race 7. It's last 3 starts read 707. This was deceptive as its last start 7th was by 1 3/4 lengths in a BM78. Today it had 54kg's in a BM68 with a 3 kilo apprentice riding. Throw in a Unitab rating of 100 and things are looking pretty rosy at $18. The rider J McNeil rode an absolute corker to top it off.

Sometimes solid bets are just staring you in the face, sometimes not.

'Wax on.........wax off........'

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Barny
You explained alright, maybe I should have explained an unlucky horse and one that has unluck. Beton

All of the examples given so far are "backfitted" which is a very simplistic way of "proving" a theory.

Agree Syllabus23,

Perhaps today Barny you could choose one or two horses in the $9-21 pre-post market that may have a chance of an upset, due to the curse of bad luck last start? There's no pressure, just have a crack. You'll probably learn a thing or ten along the way and maybe even a profitable place/exotics angle, who knows?

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Thr Schmile, you've missed the point completely .... Bad Luck in running, and Blackbooking a horse are "knowns" ..... We don't want "knowns", there's no edge there.

It's a simplistic way of explaining it ........ sigh

Ok.

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Frisky No More tomorrow at Sandown ---