OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Big Value Favourites Betting System

#11

1st May 2016, 08:41 PM

Neil

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 804

Selections for 30th. April using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Caulfield:
9/1 Entre Nous 4th. $6.00

Doomben:
7/1 Too Good To Refuse $6.50, 2nd. by a half head.
7/5 Cylinder Beach 1st. $5.50 SP, TF $6.00 Also a nice quinella.

Morphettville:
7/10 Rationality Unpl. $4.20

#12

7th May 2016, 11:55 PM

Neil

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 804

Here are the selections for 7th. May using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Flemington:
9/2 Gabella $4.80 scratched

Rosehill:
9/3 Montauk $6.00, 4th. $4.40.
9/11 Moher $6.00, 1st. $5.40 tote, SP $4.80, TF $8.00!

Morphettville:
7/18 Don't Doubt Mamma $6.50, unpl. $7.50.

#13

13th May 2016, 11:52 PM

Neil

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 804

Selections for Saturday, 14th. May using the Winning Post for the odds.

Caulfield
9/1 Nevis

Doomben
6/8 Lordag

Morphettville
3/2 Edgewood
3/7 Victory Downs

#14

14th May 2016, 12:08 PM

Neil

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 804

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neil

Selections for Saturday, 14th. May using the Winning Post for the odds.

Caulfield
9/1 Nevis

Doomben
6/8 Lordag

Morphettville
3/2 Edgewood
3/7 Victory Downs

Using Saturday morning's Herald Sun odds.

Caulfield
5/12 Better Land

Doomben
6/3 Jumbo Prince

Morphettville
5/9 Award Of Merit
3/7 Victory Downs

#15

4th July 2016, 04:27 PM

Neil

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 804

A number of the systems have been doing vey well since I posted them, like this one which had 2 bets and picked up $10.00 SP winner Hursley at Caulfield on Saturday.

#16

1st August 2016, 04:59 PM

Neil

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 804

Still doing well when I check.

Using the odds from Saturday's Herald Sun winners on Saturday were:

Hursley $5.00 SP at Caulfield
Sagaronne $3.70 SP at Doomben

#17

10th December 2016, 04:44 AM

kiwiz

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Auckland

Posts: 21,349

Flemington R6 N10 Oak Door
Rosehill R8 N11 Hogmanay N13 Kadinsky
Morphettville R4 N10 Alaskan Jade R8 N6 Big Effort

#18

16th December 2016, 03:02 AM

kiwiz

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Auckland

Posts: 21,349

Moonee Valley R7 N3 Dane Thunder N7 Lunar Spin

#19

5th January 2017, 03:38 AM

kiwiz

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Auckland

Posts: 21,349

Canterbury R5 N5 Murraguldrie

#20

5th January 2017, 09:34 AM

demodocus

Member

Join Date: Apr 2010

Posts: 59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neil

The aim is to back winning favourites at odds higher than the long term winning percentage of favourites.

It operates on Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide Saturday metropolitan meetings.

Using a good form guide with reliable pre post betting odds, back the favourite that has the highest pre post betting odds. If there are 2 favourites selected by this rule, then back them both. With 3 or more give the meeting a miss.

What I have noticed is that actual betting odds can vary quite wildly from these pre post odds.

Neil, something to think about ........

There needs to be some incorporation of Field Size in your assessment.

EXAMPLE USING FAVOURITES:

Field.....WSR.......TAB
8..........35.33.....2.50
9..........32.95.....2.64
10........32.15.....2.83
11........29.00.....2.99
12........28.15.....3.03
13........27.21.....3.22
14........26.68.....3.27

Sample: 190,924 Saturday Metro races, all Going, All distances.

Other than that I reckon your approach is well founded.

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