Still losing this month but its on the mend.

The run of losses and profits since the start of the negative run is:

-3871.73
-5276.23
-1118.3
-3802.43
-3699.57
566.31
-4367.66
3434

Today is up 2846.43 and I am expecting it can hold and be another 3K profit day.

That still leaves me a long way in the red but there is still a long way to go in this month so I am due the run of good results eventually.

Hi mate, did things turn around for you?

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

Yeah it has.

Since the losing run started:

-3871.73
-5276.23
-1118.3
-3802.43
-3699.57
566.31
-4367.66
3434
1749.2
3464.54
3888.7
-727.9
1672.39
-4364.17
1670.25
2090.09
2108.46
-1105.13


For the month I am breakeven. Slight profit of $140.29.

Considering the losing run was over 21K and I am breakeven for the month I'll take that as a slight win Can't complain after making 30K last month and 15K in July and 9K in June.

4 months with 54K profit seems like a reasonable profit to me. I just keep that in perspective Long term I am a big winner, short term I can have a bad month (and yes I do consider break even a bad month)

Thought I should update this thread for how September actually turned out.

It was one of my worst months in a long time (not surprising with the large losing week) but I ended up with the following results for the month (this is from 1st September - 30th September:

1745.97
-35.86
-4496.06
2958.15
2254.68
3579.11
-2283.17
2832.19
1274.46
-3871.73
-5276.23
-1118.3
-3802.43
-3699.57
566.31
-4367.66
3434
1749.2
3464.54
3888.7
-727.9
1672.39
-4364.17
1670.25
2090.09
2108.46
-721.09
2884.41
1400.29
-1825.12


The end result so you don't need to add them up is a meager profit of $2983.91

I would have been happy if the last day had been a profit and pushed me above $5K but the loss to bring me down below 3K for the month was disappointing.

I'm so close to recovering the entire losses for that week in early September (over 21K and up at 24K during the worst point of the day) and I was exactly $93.79 behind hitting the bank high again at midnight last night. If I can push out a profit today I will be back at a bank high and doing well.

October has been winning every day and the 4 days have returned the results below:

1371.44
1785.39
1085.43
509.51

Enjoy the punting today, looks like some good racing.

Well the losing run has ended after I finished in profit last night.

I am back at a bank high.

The entire results from the first losing day were:

-3871.73
-5276.23
-1118.3
-3802.43
-3699.57
566.31
-4367.66
3434
1749.2
3464.54
3888.7
-727.9
1672.39
-4364.17
1670.25
2090.09
2108.46
-721.09
2884.41
1400.29
-1825.12
1371.44
1785.39
1085.43
509.51
2793.8

Even when you have an edge sometimes luck can go against you.

Recovering from losses like this make me more comfortable in the future. Each time it happens, and I don't panic during the losses, I reinforce the belief that these losses are temporary and I just need to ensure I ride them out with proper staking levels compared to my bank.

I'll post an update at the end of this month on how I have progressed but thought I would pop in and add some commentary about the last 2 days.

On Friday I was having a great day and everything was going well till I took a large loss that wiped most of the days gains. Before the loss I was at my highest ever one days earnings (previously was 4.2K ) as I was up over 5K for the day. I ended the day with only a profit of $450.07

It was a bit of a let down but sometimes things happen like that. You just have to swear at it and watch the next set of bets.

Then yesterday (Saturday) I had another great day, but this time instead of losing at the end of the day I pushed through to a personal best earnings for one day at $5,701.31.

Losses are inevitable, you have to understand they happen when gambling and risking money. The statistics for my systems tell me I am never going to be 100% right. But if you know you have an edge then you will eventually come out in front. The more you recover from losses to hit new record profits the better equipped you will be to handle those losses.

I keep pushing, I keep analysing and I just keep going at it. One of my goals is now to make 10K in a day.

Cheers for the update, i understand how those highs and lows work, yesterday working with your modified idea i lost on the first race at Randwick, it's kinda a kick in the face backing 5 horses in a 6 horse field and the winner is the one you didn't back.

I was only working on a $150 return but spent the rest of the day chasing it, got in front by about $10 going in to the last bet of the day, bam another loser so ended the day with a loss of $114, still up about $110 for the week on the last day, the numbers are small but am only working with a $1000 bank to start during the trail period.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

Shaun,

Im glad it doesn't just happen to me. I know it really is a pain though. I guess from yesterday you have two races you can now look at in order to find a filter so the losses don't happen again. Small fields might be something to avoid ? You would need to check your results though. Maybe a race with too many last start winners ? maybe a race where you have chosen all horses with inside barriers and the winner came from an outside barrier ?

There are lots of ways to analyse a race and find those bad races.

Great to hear your up $110 for the week. Just look at the long term number. I record my record for 1 day, 4 days, 5 days, 7 days, 14 days, 28 days(I class this as one month), 90 days, 180 days and 365 days. As long as some of those numbers keep improving I know I am on the right track. Also make sure anything 28 days and longer is always in profit. Those are the ones to really care about.

hopefully today goes well for you, I am already sitting on about $1300 profit today but its a long way to go and that can disappear quickly.

The filtering part is an interesting thought, since i have no control over selections i guess i could look at the winning and losing races, what type races won,distance, starters, price and anything else i can think of recording, as the winning and losing races continue it may help to filter out possible losers or even capitalize on winners,

Cheers mate, appreciate your input.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

I started with about $1,800 bankroll exactly 20 months ago now, been adding in $50 a fortnight to build it up but also managed almost $4,000 profit in that time span as well which i'm super proud of and keen to build further. The issue i've had is that its almost exclusively been on sports and particularly the AFL. I'm not sure whether its the lower market %'s that make it easier especially when you shop around for odds or what but I can just seem to make sport work for me much easier.

I still work daily to try and find a horse racing angle and update my data, I feel like as my data builds I get closer to finding something that will work. But for now its been a real bonus that I'm able to build a bank up with sports betting as well. Fortunately the NBA system I referred to in another thread is already up 11 units in the 3 days that I was able to bet it (before attending the manikato and cox plate at the weekend). A mate of mine that I talk to a lot about punting was able to follow it and record the data while I was going and it made a further 20 units while I was away. Fingers crossed the edge continues to be there for some time.

In closing i've managed to turn over $36k in that time period for my profit at 11.1% POT. I think the opportunities are there for anyone to take advantage of, especially if you still have access to bookie promos etc, you just have to be willing to do the work and have some patience. Its been a long journey for me in these forums etc but I feel like its gradually all coming to fruition. My absolute ultimate long term goal is to have a sort of passive income that I can feed into a share portfolio for retirement, but thats still some time off.

Love these kind of threads by the way, always generates a higher level of thinking.