How do call pt adel value @ $1.48 after one of their most deplorable games since entering the comp,i know there home this week and i think they might win, but their no value at that price and i would never back carlton at odds on either, hope they win for you but i'll be staying clear of those teams

cheers

Sorry Goldmember,but I managed to reply to you under the post,(afl round 9).
Actually it's probably a more appropriate place for it.

Cheers Mo.

Thats ok mo,i just put the H2H stats up for people to view as a guide, but i wouldn't back them all the time, as i watch most games and sometimes i do'nt agree with them either , its up to the individual to use them how they like.

cheers

Sure. But the bookies are not normally that far off, so large overlays (large +EV) are often not actually value. My point is that the 15% might be too large a buffer.

E.g. I subscribe to the tennis package. I did an analysis of the results and found that large overlays have not been profitable. Why? Because the handicapper missed or overvalued something that the bookies didn't.

You can always check with other cappers to see what their opinions are, and if they agree there's value then it could very well be a great bet.

I don't like your attitude for your responses. You seem to be under the impression that I'm just a punter, well I'm not. I've been a full-time advantage player since I left high school and have learnt a few things along the way.

I feel there is a bad wind blowing here.I do hope it calms down.

I make mention of a 15% buffer.Here's what this means.
A bookmaker assesses a game as being to hard to call.(Lets just imagine it is the Carlton/Bulldogs game).
He can't give evens each of two,so he gives $1.92 (if he really wants the business he gives $1.95).
I look at the game and think Carlton by 8 points.
With the formula I use,which is what bookmakers appear to use if you analyze line betting prices,I have Carlton at $1.68.
If you divide 1.95 by 1.68 you get 1.16 which is 16% overlay.
How difficult is it to be 8 points or so more accurate than someone else.

Look I've been losing most of my punting life.I would like to win and steering others
to win would give me satisfaction.
I'm here to learn and share.Thats all.

Mo.

"I'm here to learn and share.Thats all."

That's why most of us here.

" feel there is a bad wind blowing here.I do hope it calms down"

That's cool. It's calmed :wink:

I realise why you want a buffer. In theory it makes alot of sense. Only bet on large overlays and then you're much more likely to be betting with +EV (positive expected value). In practice it's not that simple though. A large overlay means either you or the bookie are pretty off. You should check the market and other sharp bettors for their opinions. If other sharp bettors seem to think the line is value, then you are probally fine. If they disagree with you about your large overlay, you may have missed something they didn't.

I'm not saying large overlays are not profitable, you just have to be careful.I don't think you should exlude smaller overlays. The smaller overlays are generally where alot of bettors make their money. You should really bet any line your formula/system says is value.

If you exclude the smaller overlays, who might be throwing potential value away. As long as you are more accurate than the bookies longterm, these smaller overlays will profit and so it's worthwhile betting them.

Not saying what you are doing is wrong, just offering an opinion I've formed from my own experiences as well as the views of experienced sharps I respect.