PS to previous post.......

You would have noticed that Canterbury contributed b****r all to the div's so I hope the ref. to the state of the track put a few off betting there.

If punters do bet on heavy tracks they should check that their fancy has shown some form in the wet, rather than expect it to do something it has'nt
done before.

Gerry

Quite so Gerry, we remarked on this a couple of weeks ago with Xanadu, betting on tracks more swamp than turf is crazy, unless there is a known "swimmer" in the race.

Still, some punters would bet on anything, they seem to enjoy the process more than winning itself. To them profit is just icing on the cake.
Nothing wrong with that either, if losses kept in moderate levels, people do all sorts of things for recreation.

Good luck

just a small amendment to add ***

7 7 RUMOUR AND SCANDAL*** 52.84 $2.00
7 9 CHUNKY CUSTARD*** 49.94 $4.90
7 3 AVIONICS 48.80 $7.70
7 12 EXALTED BROTHER 47.30 $14.70
7 10 ROWDY ROCKER 46.50 $21.20
7 13 SIVI SOKO 45.50 $34.00
7 2 GOGOCANNY 42.00 $100.00
7 4 DISQUIET 42.80 $100.00
7 5 LOTTO MEO 43.30 $100.00
7 6 BERGSTROM 33.30 $100.00

Rated 17 races.

Results are for a flat 1 unit bet or level stakes, and the 3 seperate figures are the returns based on A) Betfair's WAP or weighted average price just before the jump B) Betfair's SP and C) (not so) SuperTAB.

Top rated (i.e. shortest priced) picks, 3 winners from 17 tries.

Sandown 0/3, outlay 3, return nil
M'ville 2/6, outlay 6, return A 7.71 B 7.32 C 6.8
E. Farm 0/3 outlay 3, return nil
Rosehill 1/5, outlay 5, return A 7.78 B 7.4 C 6.8

Overall on top pick A -1.51, B -2.28, C -3.4 or a loss of 8.88% to 20%.

Top rated 2 (i.e. 2 shortest priced) picks, 7 winners from 34 tries.

Sandown 2/6, outlay 6, return A 16.18 B 16.11 C 12.9
M'ville 3/12, outlay 12, return A 11.51 B 10.97 C 12.8
E. Farm 0/6 outlay 6, return nil
Rosehill 2/10, outlay 10, return A 14.19 B 12.7 C 11.2

Overall on top 2, A 7.88, B 5.78, C 2.9 or a profit of 8.5% to 23.2%

Win chances (those marked ***) 7 winners from 42 tries.

Sandown 2/8, outlay 8, return A 22.71 B 23.89 C 19
M'ville 2/13, outlay 13, return A 7.71 B 7.32 C 6.8
E. Farm 1/7 outlay 3, return A 10.92 B 9.4 C 8.5
Rosehill 2/14, outlay 14, return A 38.42 B 36.24 C 31.9

Overall on win chances A 37.76 B 34.85 C 24.2 or a profit of 57.6% to 89.9%.

Fairly evident where the value lies. The thing is, if you want the top odds you have to be either at the track or at your PC. I guess the Tote is OK if you want to have a few drinks at the pub. Tab and make the battle even harder as the day wears on and your judgement becomes a little clouded!!

Gerry

Nice to see a good track up north for a change.

Won't be rating all these tomorrow.

Eagle Farm

Race 2) 4* 1* 12* 5* 2 8
Race 3) 14* 2* 15* 11* 17* 8 4
Race 4) 9* 4* 12* 11
Race 6) 2* 17 1 18 4
Race 7) 4* 6* 5* 12* 13
Race 8) 9* 6* 2* 18* 5* 8 11

Flemington

Race 3) 2* 17* 4 12 11/3
Race 4) 2*/4 7* 3* 1
Race 5) 4* 3* 2 5 7 8
Race 6) 6* 5* 16 1 11 17
Race 7) 6* 9* 2* 4/5
Race 8) 10* 4* 7* 8 9

Morphetville

Race 1) 1* 2* 4* 5 3
Race 3) 1* 4 6* 3/10* 5/7/9
Race 4) 6* 9 4 1 7 5 10
Race 5) 4* 9* 1* 2 7 3
Race 6) 5* 7 3 9 6/8
Race 7) 7* 11* 8 6 3
Race 8) 5* 12* 6 1/11 9

Randwick

Race 2) 4* 7 1* 2 5 6
Race 3) 4* 1* 6* 5 8 2/3
Race 4) 8* 3* 5* 9* 7*
Race 5) 4* 6 5 11 10 12
Race 6) 10*9*14*7* 5 12
Race 7) 7* 12*/13*10* 6 2
Race 8) 8* 5* 11* 7* 12 14

Gerry

Eagle Farm
4 1 GLASS HARMONIUM*** 65.70 $1.30
4 3 IRONSTEIN 60.02 $10.20
4 9 TULLAMORE*** 58.50 $20.70
4 4 SHUFFLE THE CASH*** 58.30 $22.80
4 2 TINSELTOWN 57.80 $29.00
4 8 DE FINE LAGO 53.00 $100.00
4 5 PERSIAN STAR 52.70 $100.00
4 7 RAEBURN 52.60 $100.00
4 6 VIKING HERO 51.30 $100.00
4 10 WARRIOR WITHIN 49.70 $100.00
4 11 STREETS AWAY 46.68 $100.00
4 12 THE CHEVRON 45.80 $100.00
4 13 MANCUSO 38.40 $100.00

Flemington
4 2 PERTURBO*** 60.50 $2.10
4 4 BIG SPIRIT 58.50 $3.70
4 1 STANZOUT 56.00 $9.90
4 3 ANTEROS*** 55.50 $12.30
4 7 KENNY KID*** 55.00 $15.30
4 10 WORDMASTER 50.20 $100.00

7 6 GEEJAYHAITCH*** 59.40 $1.80
7 9 STREAKY FELLA*** 56.20 $5.00
7 2 BOOM 'N' ZOOM*** 55.10 $7.80
7 5 RISK IT ALL 52.70 $22.80
7 3 SWOOPER 52.10 $30.30
7 4 DAVCON 51.60 $38.60
7 11 ERUPTIOUS 49.90 $90.10
7 8 SERMON 49.10 $100.00
7 7 PERMIT 45.00 $100.00
7 13 CHEVIOT BEACH 43.60 $100.00
7 10 LITTLE SLAPPER 41.80 $100.00
7 15 ENCLOSED 24.40 $100.00

8 7 TITUS VINIUS*** 53.50 $3.30
8 4 EUPHORIC REALM*** 52.44 $4.20
8 10 PLIERS*** 51.50 $5.70
8 2 RIVETED 50.18 $9.40
8 5 ORIENTAPED 48.70 $17.30
8 8 PRINCE OF CAPERS 47.50 $29.50
8 6 WOOKAH 46.60 $44.80
8 14 SET TO TALK 46.50 $47.00
8 1 NO JURISDICTION 45.74 $67.70
8 11 MALLOY 45.10 $92.70
8 9 RED HUSTLER 44.90 $100.00
8 3 RICEMAN 42.32 $100.00
8 13 CALIFORNIA VALLEY 40.00 $100.00
8 12 CHEERFUL JURY 33.70 $100.00

Morphetville
4 6 RULING TO WIN*** 48.80 $3.60
4 4 LENNYBE 47.70 $4.60
4 9 AKHABRACH 46.74 $6.40
4 1 IREL 46.34 $7.30
4 3 ROAD WARRIOR 43.68 $21.70
4 5 CURRENCY CUGAT 43.50 $23.50
4 2 MAGICAL SUNDAY 43.10 $28.10
4 10 DANCING HAVANA 43.00 $29.40
4 7 LUVBITE 42.74 $33.10
4 11 ULTRA SAVINGS 41.00 $75.20
4 8 TRENCHTOWN 40.00 $100.00
4 12 LUCENUP 25.50 $100.00

5 4 FAST FRANK*** 50.00 $2.90
5 2 ACE OR JOKA 49.18 $3.50
5 1 FANTASTIC GLEN*** 47.90 $5.30
5 9 JEUNEALISTIC*** 45.60 $12.90
5 3 WOODLAND JACK 44.00 $26.20
5 7 SACRED SNAADEE 43.84 $28.20
5 8 NOSTOPPINTHEMUSIC 41.82 $73.70
5 5 INTERVIEW 41.30 $95.50
5 10 GOLDRIDGE 37.50 $100.00
5 11 CHERILYN 33.90 $100.00

6 5 NOTDATPETITE*** 53.00 $1.40
6 3 BELFAST BOY 48.90 $5.60
6 1 CIRO PRINCE 45.70 $23.50
6 6 SOME CALL ME TIM 45.00 $32.90
6 8 MY UNCLE VINNY 43.60 $66.30
6 9 VINEGAR HILL 43.60 $69.80
6 2 XAIETA 42.00 $100.00
6 10 FAPPIANO'S LAD 40.30 $100.00

Randwick
2 1 CROSSBOW*** 55.40 $1.10
2 2 ZACHARY*** 48.00 $19.10
2 7 KING USAIN*** 46.30 $44.30
2 3 ENDOR 43.50 $100.00
2 6 GOOD VIEW 43.00 $100.00
2 5 GOGRA GOGRA 42.50 $100.00
2 8 PATIO 41.00 $100.00
2 9 RANCHERO 25.60 $100.00

3 1 SCARF*** 55.60 $1.40
3 5 SHE MUST BE OBEYED 50.74 $7.60
3 6 NEXT THE UNIVERSE*** 49.00 $16.70
3 4 MYALLA GOLD*** 48.84 $18.00
3 2 GIRESUN 46.24 $64.40
3 8 GREAT HEART 45.50 $94.20
3 7 BARSINOLA 45.46 $96.10
3 10 PROCYON 41.50 $100.00
3 3 KIRINATA 39.30 $100.00
3 9 PRIVATE LABEL 36.00 $100.00

4 3 LADYS ANGEL*** 59.80 $2.60
4 8 SQUAMOSA*** 58.20 $4.00
4 5 JEST CREWSIN'*** 57.40 $5.30
4 4 SKYTRAIN 54.60 $16.50
4 1 ROYAL DISCRETION 54.50 $17.20
4 9 FITNESS FANATIC*** 53.00 $34.20
4 6 PRINCE BRAEMAN 52.90 $35.90
4 2 MONTANA FLYER 47.10 $100.00

5 4 MIKIYAMA*** 55.20 $1.80
5 5 SANDBERG 51.38 $6.30
5 6 CODE WORD 51.00 $7.30
5 11 REUBEN PERCIVAL 48.80 $19.40
5 12 ROCKET ROD 47.50 $36.00
5 8 LINBOB 47.00 $46.00
5 9 DANEFOX 46.80 $50.80
5 3 OUR CANNAVARO 46.58 $56.70
5 1 ANYTHING 44.72 $100.00
5 2 TWO TOWERS 37.50 $100.00

6 10 MR ARMSTRONG*** 54.72 $3.50
6 8 TIMETABLE 53.36 $5.00
6 12 CARNEGIES CRUZIN 52.74 $6.20
6 5 MUTAWARATH 51.52 $9.70
6 2 ARLINGTON 50.78 $13.10
6 15 MAJESTIC GEM 50.50 $14.70
6 7 DEVILS ARCADE 49.64 $21.20
6 13 CHAMELEON 48.10 $42.70
6 1 DELAGO STAR 47.50 $56.60
6 14 QUICK PEEK*** 45.44 $100.00
6 16 ASSERTIVE BILLY 45.04 $100.00
6 4 MARTIN PLACE 44.80 $100.00
6 9 KLOSE*** 44.20 $100.00

had something on Crossbow Race 2 Randwick, top rated at $1.10, saluted and returned $14.20 Betfair SP and $9.30 on (not so) SuperTAB.

Gerry

A quick look at todays results using level stakes of 1 unit.

Rated 13 races.

Top Raters ( 13 bets ) won 3 of these for a Strike rate of 23%
Betfair SP returned 21.84 for a profit of 68%.
SuperTab divs 15.7 or a profit of 21%.

Top 2 raters ( 26 bets ) won 6 races for 23% strike rate
Betfair SP returned 34.09 units or a profit of 31%
SuperTab returned 27.3 units or 5% profit

Winning Chances (32 bets ) won 6 races for a 19% strike rate
Betfair SP returned 38.26 for a 20% profit
Supertab returned 28.90 for a 10% loss.

All in all, not a bad days work,

Gerry

Well done Gerry!

Cheers

Won't be rating all these tomorrow.

1-2-3 consensus & " * " win chances.

Ipswich (Dead)

R1 9* 7 1 8 5
R3 15* 14* 13 12 9 8
R4 5* 1* 4* 2 9* 3
R5 5* 12* 4* 10*/11 7 17
R6 11* 4* 10* 13* 3
R7 7* 3* 4 6 8 9/10
R8 2* 15* 1 11*/12* 14 6/9 11

Moonee Valley (Slow)

R3 4* 1* 7 5 8
R4 3* 4 6* 1
R5 5* 2 4 6 7
R6 6* 4* 11 2 10 9
R7 4* 3* 1* 6* 5*
R8 5*/7* 9 4/11

M'ville (Dead)

R1 4* 5* 1 3 2/7
R2 2* 5* 4
R4 7* 3* 9* 4/8* 10
R5 8* 6* 9 3/7
R6 12 7/8* 13 11 9
R7 10* 2* 9 6* 11 14
R8 11* 15* 13* 17 7

Rosehill (Heavy)

R1 1* 2* 6* 4* 7* 3 8
R2 1* 2 3 10 11 5/9
R3 3* 4 1 6 5
R4 2*/5* 6* 9* 8
R5 12* 6* 8 10* 7 11
R6 9* 7 3* 12 8
R7 10* 12* 6/11* 8* 13 15
R8 6* 8 13* 11 9