We shall see Mr. lets wait for the AFL
P.S. Have you backed St Kilda 20 times to win the premiership.

Opening balance $425

Bet 13: $20 on Cowboys +5.5 at $1.92

Closing balance $195

Didnt see too many people take Reds 13+ @ $10 (unitab)
Pass the crystal ball boys
cheers

Wow. What happened Mr J? The gremlins seem to have stolen $210 from your balance.

For real I had chiefs winning by 7.5, so had reds +10.5. I think it was sportz that suggested that maybe I should only pick the bets I'm more confident in (for the comp anyway). Don't like backing the reds so no bet for the comp. Sportz owes me an extra $20 or so, but what's $20 going to mean in 200 bets time.

Lol...yeh make that $405.

Sorry Mr J. All my fault.

Do you bet on every game, no matter how close the line? Or are there some games you won't touch because you think the bookies have it pretty much spot on? My ratings had the Chiefs winning by 9, so I considered the start of 10.5 a bit close. As I said earlier, I did think about backing the Reds, but in the end, just couldn't bring myself to back a team that had such a poor record in NZ.

Opening Balance :$286.10

bet 11 multi sportodds

NRL Knights Try [1st scoring play] $2.65 **
NRL broncos -3.5 $1.48

$30 @ $3.92 = $117.60

Closing Balance $256.10

Yeh if it's too close I won't bet. My buffer is around 2pts (use a spreadsheet, probally similiar to the formula the guys have posted up).

E.g. the canes and the bulls. My line is -11.89, it'd only be a bet if I could get -9 or +14.5. It's -/+ 12.5 so no bet.

That was the only non bet for s12 for me this week.

For NRL, the first line I saw for the cowboys was +4.5, which wasn't a bet for me (I had +3.3). That was offshore, when I look in Aus I saw +5.5 which makes it a bet.

The broncos I have at -11.02, but the line is -10, so no bet.

I like to have a 'perceived' edge of at least 5% on every bet. So in theory my system (if it works) should hit better than 5%ROI (55% winner against the line).

So it's not that I bet EVERYTHING, it's that I bet all games my system says I have an edge on (which seems to be most). Some games a no bets at one bookie but a bet at another. The +4.5 vs +5.5 for the cowboys was a great example. You can often find a pt better by shopping around the aussie and offshore books.

This week, my line vs the bookies:
NRL
Cowboys +3.3 vs +5.5
Raiders -7.88 vs -4.5 (this is what I got, most are -5 or -6).
Broncos -11.02 vs -10
Dragons -8.12 vs +1.5

S12
Chiefs -7.39 vs +10.5
Hurricanes -11.89 vs -12.5
Blues -4.95 vs +6
NSW -13.34 vs -5.5
Cats +4.26 vs +11
Sharks -1 vs -4.5

So some are close and some are far off. Results suggest that I do have a larger advantage on the larger overlays (ie the further my price is from the bookies), but not in proportion to how far it is actually off. E.g. my perceived 5% edges have hit 6-7% ROI. My perceived 20% edges have hit 10-15% ROI etc. Those figures are made up but it's just to show that when my lines are close to the bookies I'm more accurate than my perceived edge suggests, and when I'm way off from the bookies, I'm either way off or they are (and it's more often them than me).

"Wow. What happened Mr J? The gremlins seem to have stolen $210 from your balance."

How about we call it a handicap. If I managed to win this comp from that balance, I will be a very very very very very very happy man. Means I probally made 30-40 units