I like Perth because its usually fairly consistent and handy for when the weather is wet on the East Coast, but I have also found it difficult recently. I didn't have many selections last weekend over there; -I really liked Black Douglas - its last 2 runs were run at very good times and Harvey was on board. I didn;t listen to the race or see it so don't know what went wrong.

Yeah, I actually used to do quite well in Perth back a few years ago, but I've found it really tough there over the last couple of years.

Hi Sportz,

Thought you might be interested in an update for your ratings since I last replied (end July). These figures are since you started rating only several races each Saturday (from 7th June 2008).

I only take note of your top rated horse's price. Any race with equal top rated horses is eliminated. I then eliminate all horses rated > $3.20. I have also ignored the WA rated and NZ rated races (although the latter you did get the winner Princess Coup last Saturday.

Results from the races left after these few eliminations are :-

197 bets for 75 winners (38.1% S/R) and 132 places (67.0% S/R)

Betting $10 win on each selection (Using Sportsbet Citybest+ dividends) your bank would stand at $455.50 (POT % = 23.1%)

Interestingly, if we break the bets up into the States we find the following:-

Adelaide 49 bets 24 wins (49.0% S/R) Bank = $352.00 (POT % = 71.8%)
Brisbane 46 bets 19 wins (41.3% S/R) Bank = $138.50 (POT % = 30.1%)
Melbourne 58 bets 20 wins (34.5% S/R) Bank = $34.00 (POT % = 5.9%)
Sydney 44 bets 12 wins (27.3% S/R) Bank = -$69.00 (LOT % = -15.7%)

Looking at Place results (betting $10 using Sportsbet's Citybest+)

Adelaide 49 bets 37 places (75.5% S/R) Bank = $113.00 (POT % = 23.1%)
Brisbane 46 bets 35 places (76.1% S/R) Bank = $98.00 (POT % = 21.3%)
Melbourne 58 bets 37 places (63.8% S/R) Bank = -$23.00 (LOT % = -4.0%)
Sydney 44 bets 23 places (52.3% S/R) Bank = -$83.00 (LOT % = -18.9%)


Interestingly, if we ignore the Melbourne and Sydney results (is it harder to win at these venues?), then we have the following results for Adelaide and Brisbane:-

95 bets 43 wins (45.2% S/R) Win Bank $490.5 (POT % = 51.6%)
95 bets 72 places (75.7% S/R) Place bank $211.0 (POT % = 22.2%)

Again you would agree these are more than acceptable returns.

Let's hope your good work continues and the results continue to run our way.

Thanks for all your hard work it is much appreciated by all who read this forum.

Try Try Again

Wow. Thanks a lot for that. That's a reasonable size sample now too.

Yes, it does seem tougher in Sydney and Melbourne. I'm not surprised about Melbourne as I've always thought it was tough there for the top raters, but Sydney is a surprise to me. The top raters used to go pretty well there.

I actually left out 3 races on Saturday in Brisbane and Adelaide which I was originally looking at. I should have posted them instead of Perth, because all 3 produced top rating winners which would have qualified for your system - She's In The Guide, Eleda and Just Flipper.

I heartily agree with try try again...keep up the good work!

you the man Sportz

and don't worry about Sydney ,,,funny tracks, weird jockey tactics ect ,,things well settle down and get better ..

well done in Adeliade,,usually a strong point for me but i cant buy a winner there....(maybe its because Merlot Now isnt winning anymore ???)

Oct 11:


E.FRM 4
RT . ODDS . HORSE
50 . $2.0 . 3 REGAL CASTANEA
21 . $4.8 . 7 ATHENAS GIFT
13 . $7.7 . 6 BRIEF ME
13 . $7.7 . 8 PUNCH UP
4 . $25.0 . 1 BURGUNDY PRINCE
-----
1 . $100.0 . 2 CROWNING FORCE
1 . $100.0 . 5 UNDER CONSTRUCTION


E.FRM 5
RT . ODDS . HORSE
46 . $2.2 . 1 SCATTERGUN
22 . $4.5 . 3 PAY ME
10 . $10.0 . 10 CHIEFCOMINGFIRST
9 . $11.1 . 5 CURRIGEE
8 . $12.5 . 8 COCKAIGNE
-----
4 . $25.0 . 4 CEDAR MANOR
2 . $50.0 . 7 OLYMPIC TIME


E.FRM 6
RT . ODDS . HORSE
36 . $2.8 . 17 ON THE FRIDGE
16 . $6.3 . 7 CATCHIT
16 . $6.3 . 4 ROCKEM
8 . $12.5 . 18 OUR MAGIC
6 . $16.7 . 16 HESASHOW
6 . $16.7 . 10 PELLTRO
-----
4 . $25.0 . 15 RELEASE ME
4 . $25.0 . 6 MORNING COLOURS
2 . $50.0 . 1 ST VERDI
2 . $50.0 . 9 MONASHEE KNIGHT
1 . $100.0 . 12 CALUMET


E.FRM 7
RT . ODDS . HORSE
56 . $1.8 . 8 GHETTO BLASTER
16 . $6.3 . 4 BOLD REASON
10 . $10.0 . 7 FORESTRENO
6 . $16.7 . 10 TORNADIC SKY
3 . $33.3 . 3 OLLIE VOLLIE
3 . $33.3 . 9 STYLISH QUALO
-----
2 . $50.0 . 2 MR HORNBLOWER
2 . $50.0 . 14 MOGLICH
2 . $50.0 . 13 VOCALIC
1 . $100.0 . 1 COCKTAIL SUPREME
1 . $100.0 . 12 GENERAL PATTON


ROSE 6
RT . ODDS . HORSE
56 . $1.8 . 5 FAULCONBRIDGE
18 . $5.6 . 7 IMVULA
13 . $7.7 . 9 STONE CANYON
10 . $10.0 . 4 BUNDORAN BREEZE
2 . $50.0 . 2 THE CHIEFTAIN
-----
1 . $100.0 . 8 READY TO LIFT
1 . $100.0 . 1 LUVULEO
1 . $100.0 . 3 MI CASA


ROSE 8
RT . ODDS . HORSE
36 . $2.8 . 4 BOBADAH
20 . $5.0 . 7 ALVERTA
14 . $7.1 . 13 BLESSUS
14 . $7.1 . 1 GERMAN CHOCOLATE
11 . $9.1 . 6 CROSSWISE
3 . $33.3 . 3 RAGS TO RICHES
-----
2 . $50.0 . 5 DANZIPPO
1 . $100.0 . 10 WESTERN BEAU


CAUL 5 (YALUMBA STKS)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
54 . $1.9 . 1 POMPEII RULER
13 . $7.7 . 2 SIRMIONE
11 . $9.1 . 3 CASUAL PASS
11 . $9.1 . 7 GUILLOTINE
6 . $16.7 . 8 LARGO LAD
-----
5 . $20.0 . 6 C'EST LA GUERRE
1 . $100.0 . 5 VIEWED


CAUL 7 (CAULFIELD GUINEAS)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
37 . $2.7 . 11 WHOBEGOTYOU
14 . $7.1 . 14 TIME THIEF
13 . $7.7 . 13 LORD TAVISTOCK
12 . $8.3 . 7 DREAMSCAPE
11 . $9.1 . 3 ALL AMERICAN
4 . $25.0 . 6 FERNANDINA
-----
3 . $33.3 . 19 BONDARCHUK
3 . $33.3 . 2 DUPORTH
2 . $50.0 . 15 GOGOCANNY
2 . $50.0 . 12 MINNESOTA SHARK
1 . $100.0 . 4 ROCKDALE
1 . $100.0 . 1 VON COSTA DE HERO
1 . $100.0 . 5 CARNERO


CAUL 8 (THOROUGHBRED CLUB STKS)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
42 . $2.4 . 7 OLONANA
24 . $4.2 . 3 IMPRESSIVE EAGLE
10 . $10.0 . 11 MARGHAM
8 . $12.5 . 2 MARVEEN
6 . $16.7 . 10 DAMSELFLY
5 . $20.0 . 1 VIENNESE
-----
4 . $25.0 . 6 OKAYLAH
3 . $33.3 . 4 VELOCITEA
2 . $50.0 . 8 PACHANGA


CAUL 9 (LE TAN STKS)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
26 . $3.8 . 10 BENATAR
19 . $5.3 . 14 DISTINCTIVE LASS
19 . $5.3 . 2 BEL MER
10 . $10.0 . 9 HANNA ROSSA
6 . $16.7 . 5 TANGO AMIGO'S
6 . $16.7 . 15 TRANQUILITY BASE
-----
5 . $20.0 . 11 JOYEUSE
2 . $50.0 . 1 CHINCHILLA ROSE
2 . $50.0 . 3 BELONG TO MANY
2 . $50.0 . 8 ZIPANESE
2 . $50.0 . 7 ABSOLUTELYFABULOUS
1 . $100.0 . 6 I HAVE NO FEAR
1 . $100.0 . 13 HELLUVA PARTY


CHEL 2
RT . ODDS . HORSE
38 . $2.6 . 1 TAHNEE TANGO
26 . $3.8 . 2 TO A FAULT
17 . $5.9 . 7 SUN DOG
14 . $7.1 . 4 COSMIC COMMANDER
-----
5 . $20.0 . 5 DRUMBEATER
1 . $100.0 . 6 MOST HANDSOME


CHEL 5
RT . ODDS . HORSE
33 . $3.0 . 9 BOAT QUAY
27 . $3.7 . 4 WHO'STHIS
19 . $5.3 . 1 OBGLO
12 . $8.3 . 5 BOLD LINE
8 . $12.5 . 8 MISS RAZZLE DAZZLE
-----
3 . $33.3 . 6 CHART TOPPER
1 . $100.0 . 7 LORETTA BELLE


CHEL 6
RT . ODDS . HORSE
34 . $2.9 . 2 ROUGH CHANCE
23 . $4.3 . 7 E'MINOR
11 . $9.1 . 3 TRULY BEAUTIFUL
11 . $9.1 . 1 HOLY GUACAMOLEY
8 . $12.5 . 4 LADY BRANAX
8 . $12.5 . 8 SHEZA'S DREAM
-----
3 . $33.3 . 6 LA VISCOMTESSA
2 . $50.0 . 9 HER ALIBI
1 . $100.0 . 5 ALL ABOUT ANNIE


CHEL 7
RT . ODDS . HORSE
46 . $2.2 . 5 VALOROSO
23 . $4.3 . 7 READY MADE
10 . $10.0 . 3 BOLD GIGGLE
8 . $12.5 . 12 IJUBANI
5 . $20.0 . 4 BY SEA
5 . $20.0 . 13 ROCKBANK
-----
2 . $50.0 . 8 TWO SHADES OF BLUE
2 . $50.0 . 9 BARKER LAD
1 . $100.0 . 6 SELLERS
1 . $100.0 . 2 ORME

Didn't include the Toorak today as the ratings suggested the race was FAR too open. Well, as it turned out, I probably should have included the race anyway.......

CAUL 6 (TOORAK HCP)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
15 . $6.7 . 3 ALAMOSA
14 . $7.1 . 19 ROCKWOOD
12 . $8.3 . 2 ORANGE COUNTY
11 . $9.1 . 12 MOLOTOV
10 . $10.0 . 10 SEA BATTLE
8 . $12.5 . 14 TURFFONTEIN
-----
7 . $14.3 . 6 THE FUZZ
7 . $14.3 . 1 BON HOFFA
6 . $16.7 . 16 KINGDA KA
3 . $33.3 . 17 PILLAR OF HERCULES
3 . $33.3 . 8 HERE DE ANGELS
2 . $50.0 . 11 MARCHING
2 . $50.0 . 13 RAHEEB
1 . $100.0 . 9 OUR SMOKING JOE

Here's a summary of Saturday's ratings:

E.Frm 4 - Eq 3rd rated Punch Up won the race.
E.Frm 5 - 2nd rater Pay Me won and the first 4 was found in the top 4 ratings.
E.Frm 6 - Top rated On The Fridge won well. The first 4 paid $5433 on Unitab and it was very gettable by simply taking the runners in bold for first and all the horses above the line to fill the other 3 placings.
E.Frm 7 - Disappointing result for the ratings as the winner was only rated eq 7th.
Rose 6 - Top rater Faulconbridge won as expected. The price wasn't too bad in the end considering he looked close to a certainty.
Rose 8 - Eq 3rd rated Blessus won the race.
Caul 5 - Top rater Pompeii Ruler finished 2nd behind outsider Douro Valley in an upset result.
Caul 7 - Top rater Whobegotyou won brilliantly and the ratings found the exacta with 2nd rated Time Thief coming second.
Caul 8 - 5th rated Damselfly won the race from 2nd rater Impressive Eagle who really should have won.
Caul 9 - An upset result and another example of why I don't like wide open mares races with big fields. I generally try to ignore them, but sometimes I still get sucked in. Will learn my lesson one day.
Chel 2 - Top rated Tahnee Tango won the race and the trifecta was found among the 4 bold runners. Certainly not a big dividend though.
Chel 5 - 2nd rated Who's This won and the trifecta was found in the 5 selections above the line. Again, it didn't pay a huge amount.
Chel 6 - Won by Eq 3rd rater Truly Beautiful, with the first 4 found in the top 6 ratings. Again, you could have had just the bold runners to win.
Chel 7 - Terrible result for the ratings. An absolute shocker!

Oct 15:


CAUL 3
RT . ODDS . HORSE
34 . $2.9 . 3 INVINCIBLEKINDNESS
30 . $3.3 . 2 DANDAAD
13 . $7.7 . 10 REPUTABLE
11 . $9.1 . 4 MAKEADREAMCOMETRUE
6 . $16.7 . 5 RED SQUARE
4 . $25.0 . 1 MOJO PIN
-----
1 . $100.0 . 7 DOOSRA DIAMOND
1 . $100.0 . 12 COUNT THE DIAMONDS
1 . $100.0 . 11 BUTWAITTHERESMORE


CAUL 4
RT . ODDS . HORSE
49 . $2.0 . 5 BORN PRINCESS
18 . $5.6 . 1 PENNY BANGER
12 . $8.3 . 3 KALASH
6 . $16.7 . 8 TULLY DREAMER
6 . $16.7 . 12 TANGO'S CHOICE
5 . $20.0 . 2 AL'S BEST MATE
-----
3 . $33.3 . 4 WHISPER BAY
3 . $33.3 . 10 TOSSIT AROUND
1 . $100.0 . 7 OVERTAKE
1 . $100.0 . 14 SATSUMA


CAUL 6 (THOUSAND GUINEAS)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
26 . $3.8 . 2 GALLICA
26 . $3.8 . 8 ROMNEYA
18 . $5.6 . 1 PORTILLO
7 . $14.3 . 12 FLY HIGHER
5 . $20.0 . 10 CATS WHISKER
4 . $25.0 . 4 GLOWLAMP
-----
3 . $33.3 . 7 LOVE AND KISSES
3 . $33.3 . 9 KIMILLSY
3 . $33.3 . 11 SPARKS FLY
3 . $33.3 . 3 TAAMEER
2 . $50.0 . 5 OVAL AFFAIR
1 . $100.0 . 6 DAN BARONESS


M.BR 6 (MURRAY BRIDGE CUP)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
38 . $2.6 . 8 DOLLOPS
27 . $3.7 . 9 THE GEM
10 . $10.0 . 1 ROAD WORKER
6 . $16.7 . 2 MERLOT NOW
6 . $16.7 . 17 DYNAMIC HERO
5 . $20.0 . 3 FREE THE ROBBER
-----
3 . $33.3 . 5 KELTAH
2 . $50.0 . 13 SCRUBBY CREEK
1 . $100.0 . 6 CLUB LIQUID
1 . $100.0 . 12 COPPER DAYS
1 . $100.0 . 4 JIM'S PARTY
1 . $100.0 . 7 TORA TORA TORA
1 . $100.0 . 11 EXALTED THOMAS