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#2884
9th December 2005, 06:25 PM
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Yeah, good old Greg Ryan.
 Have to pick out the right races though. In my opinion, the best two betting races at Mudgee today were the last two races, so they were the ones I bet on. I often back Ryan in country cups and I almost always back him in the last race of the day. In any case, Paper Boy and Shepishir were my top picks in those races, so two from two there today. 
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#2885
9th December 2005, 07:13 PM
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Quote:
Gday Mad yeah I gave it a good chance .... it managed 3rd I think
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#2886
9th December 2005, 07:19 PM
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Stix Roughies
Having a "crack" at a few roughies.... (Can't seem to pick my nose today - let alone a winner - so might as well try and tip those that would normally beat my tip !
 )(Selection in brackets (my 'usual slecetions")..... lay the crap out of them.... LOL ! Moonee Valley R5 - 9 Cultural Revolution (C Williams) (1) bet 1 x 4 units R6 - 5 Ellenbank (B Melham(A)) (3) bet 1 x 3 units R7 - 5 Ella Noir (M Guthrie (A)) (1) bet 1 x 4 units R8 - 6 Danaman (B Cross) (8) bet 1 x 5 units Good Luck People.....
__________________
Stix .......Giddy Up..... !!
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#2887
9th December 2005, 07:40 PM
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Quote:
Gday Mad You have to be prepared to take the shorts.. he IS the best jockey in the land IMHO, and so most of his mounts are overbet, tho every now and then he will ride one at a price...and I think if you back him every ride, every day you will lose, maybe not a lot but a bit... But if like some, you have the knack (ESP maybe) and can root out his duds you might do ok.. but I am not so sure.. he usually has a full book so that means you need to make 7 or 8 units each meeting b4 you go into profit and the money usually says he is on a good chance... How you root out the duds is totally beyond me, and in reality is probably beyond most mortals, those without extra powers anyway. Take today for instance: Mudgee Race 1 he rode #4 which started at 7/2 and ran unplaced Race 2 he rode #7 which started at 13/2 and again failed to place Race 3 he rode #1 which started at $1.60 (FAV) and won (as it should have) Race 4 he rode #11 which started at 6/1 and ran 3rd Race 5 he rode #1 which started $2.6 FAV and failed to place Race 6 he rode #6 which started at 7/2 and failed to place Race 7 he rode #3 Paper Boy and started 3/1 FAV and won Race 8 he rode #5 which started 3/1 FAV and Won So a nice little profit made today... but he rode 3 FAVS to win.. But should they have been FAV.. that is my point with him.. His name makes em favs. Now how anyone can honestly say that the horses that he rode that won, Shepishir and Paper Boy, other than the odds on pop, were good things are playing with themselves. How. out of those 8 races do you decide which ones are crap. The longest price horse he rode today was 6/1 . That tells me that most people thought all his rides had a good chance in all races..I cant see that you can consistently make money backing G Ryan, because his rides are usually pretty short. His next outing is on Sunday at Cowra as best as I can see Race 1/7 is probably a good thing probably odds on Race 2/5 should be at decent odds, but wait n see Race 3/2 has a good chance ran 2nd last 3 starts (imagine the price on this one) Race 4/1 Will be short.. last start winner Race 5 NO ride ... YET Race 6/2 should be any price Race 7/4 should be any price Hope I am proven wrong.. but that is the way I see it
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#2888
10th December 2005, 08:46 AM
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Apparently, I lied
 Well, I was told we were spelling her, then coz she pulled up so well and was still looking for more, they kept her up. Anyway, Barrier is perfect, Distance isnt completely beyond her, but the rosehill straight is a bit long and usually see's her get collared at the end. Not sure on the riding tactics, but in this field, its worth including her in any exotics because she is the kind to upset them easy when its all against her. She loves the small fields and is going to get the perfect sit. My only bet today will be as per the best advice I was ever given to save some money.. Only ever bet on your own horse, so I will have an large Each way in Syd R1: Lady Frisco!
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#2889
10th December 2005, 08:56 AM
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Quote:
XPT, I assume that was aimed at me. I'm sorry, but you seem to have misunderstood me. I did not say that those two horses were 'good things' or even that they were his best two rides. I simply said that those two races were in my opinion clearly the best betting races of the day and that Greg Ryan's rides were my top picks in those races. I like to cut down on the races I bet on. At Mudgee yesterday, I didn't even consider the first 4 races. I DID consider races 5 & 6, but in the end, I just wasn't as confident about those races as I was about races 7 & 8. I've said before that I like backing Ryan in country cups and in the last race of the day, so those were the first two races I looked at. If Ryan had been on some donkey with no chance, I wouldn't have backed him, but when I went through those races, Paper Boy and Shepishir came out on top and I was quite confident about them. I must point out however, that they were not my only bets. In R7, I also had a saver on Mister Daylight and in R8, I did likewise with Mia Amanda. I certainly wouldn't advise anyone back Ryan in every single race. Going on the figures I've seen, I think you'd make a loss of about 15-20% or something like that. Paul Harvey and perhaps Darren Beadman are the only two top jockeys that you could back every time and have a chance of ending up in front. As for Sunday, I haven't looked at them yet, but if he's on a bunch of no-hopers or odds-on chances, then of course I won't be betting on them. As I said, you shouldn't just blindly bet on him without studying them first to see if he has a genuine chance. Last edited by Sportz : 10th December 2005 at 09:15 AM.
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#2890
10th December 2005, 10:28 AM
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Quote:
Nah not specifically aimed at you... my point is that his rides are just about always in the market, and I am unable to see how anyone can distinguish which are good and which are not so good... other than using prices as a guide.. If you set a floor price of say 5$ for a Ryan ride you would have gone out backwards at Mudgee (assuming NSW TAB prices) Had you set $4 as your floor you may have shown a profit.. My point is that the winners he rode yesterday, were favs, as his rides are lots of times.. and we know backing favs sends us to the red ink..would it be fair to suggest that we back G Ryan on favs only? I wouldnt think so, because then you miss the odd good priced winner he rides.. and the mob can be wrong and are wrong 60% of the time.. he rode one at cessnock a couple of weeks ago at better than 16$ (from memory). Again I say, it is very difficult to say which are his better rides of the day, because they are all good according to the mob. Shepishir is a case in question, I could not seperate it from Mia Amanda and the 4.. It won and Mia Amanda ran 2nd.. but in my opinion both were unders.. They should have been about 9/2 the field.. And yet you said it was a good betting race to back Ryan... when you are getting 9/2 (5.5) there is a fair amount of risk involved... I would have thought Pants Man was the horse to load up on if you were backing Ryan.. granted it was odds on, but it was close to a good thing as evidenced by the price.. and that it won..I dunno I might be wrong here.. The other bloke to back is Robbo (when he isnt having a holiday).. But when do you back him? He is probably the 2nd best jockey in the land... I would suggest maybe a Saturday at Kembla/Newcastle when he is riding for the top trainers, just a suggestion, forget Beadman, he is just about always on genuine winning chances, and still mangages to get knocked off every now n then (too often for my liking) Following jockeys is wrought with danger.. That was the main thrust of my post and most if not all will send you into negative territory, over the long run.. even the good ones... Harvey may well be the exception... Don't forget that I prefaced my original post by saying that I consider G RYAN the best in the land
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