Well he gave you a clue in his interview, I was quite surprised by the points he made which weren't followed up. He was very open, except when it came to Betfair of course

Firmers win more races than drifters as crackone says.

Sean said I have a price in mind and keep backing until it reaches that price.

What is apparent is that when the shorties move they continue to move in that direction as opposed to the longer priced horses which pogo stick all over the place. You'll probably get one horse that is smashed in price on the day, but the rest are all over the place before they reach their resting point or SP.

If a horse is $2.00 and it goes to $1.80, chances are it will go to $1.70.
If the horse goes to $2.20, chances are it will go to $2.40 or rest back at $2.20.

This is not just useful for arbers or traders, but useful for backing and laying at the best price.

If you can spot the moves, I've generally backed or layed then gone in for half the stake at a better price to bring it below or above the initial price.

So I've layed below the final price or bet at least 10% above the SP price.

I don't arb as such, I'd call it a half arb like a half kelly.

Perfect example was Kharsya in the UK.

Should have been $1.50 according to the openers.
Moved into $1.41.
No support for any other runner
Backed at $1.40 for $200
Firmed into $1.25 layed for $100

I've effectively got $100 @ $1.55 on a $1.25 shot

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Well whatever your doing Chrome it sounds good. I just can't get my head around figures enough to do anything with that style of betting. I did give it a go once with Betfair, but got my backside kicked. It takes a certain talent I think and it's not one of mine:-)

Backed at $1.40 for $200
Firmed into $1.25 layed for $100
those figures are surley wrong why didnt you just lay 224@ 1.25 for a guaranteed profit of 24???
i could be wrong but if you back 200@1.40 you win 80
if you lay 100@1.25 you lose 100
iether way you lose????

Life sure gets complicated - don't it

**************** if you layed at $1.25 for $100 you would lose only $25 not $100
If it wins In $80 out $25 profit $55
If it loses In $100 out $200 lose of $100

Yes, so it's $100 @ $1.55 effectively instead of the $1.25 it jumped at.

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