Basically, YES! Maybe not in the short term but it is a definte YES!

I started reading about this subject to prove those who said it was impossible were wrong. I am a convert, plain and simple. I was wrong, they were right. Sometimes we can't see the woods for the trees and try to make a system work anyway we can. Retro fitting variable after variable, applying 3/16 of 5/8 of F*** A** and coming up with a winning formula because we want it to be.

Zlotti,

Thanks for the reply.
That said, does it mean to profit, you must either have a method that profits level stakes or you price your chances and bet to obtain value.

Pricing horses and betting to your own market seems to be a lost art, with not many people devoting much time to it on these forums.

I must admit, in posing these questions I already have my own answers but like to know what other knowledgeable persons think. It is always good to double check your thoughts with others.

There is always a chance I am wrong.

I dont know if I'm stepping over the mark here but has anyone ever checked the SR of the Free Ratings for wins/places in the newsletter or Lucky Lil's or adapted filters for their selections or added them as a filter to yours.

Top Rank

There is no way you could classify what I do as knowledeable! If this was so, I would be too busy spending my money somewhere to be reading and writing in this forum. It is a hobby, I like numbers, probability, risk etc.

My understanding of Racing is very limited and very narrow. To give an example, I have never looked at form, I wouldn't know where to start. I don't know one jockey from another, and as for trainers, aren't they what you wear on your feet?

To me a race is mathematical or should be. If the handicapper has done his job, every runner in every race is just as likely to win as any other runner. If this isn't so, why bother dumping weight on their backs in the first place?

So, (the purist's aren't going to like this) I see an 8 runner race with 1 selection as a 7/1 chance of winning and start building from there. (Sad eh?)

Now to clarify about form, I said I don't look, not that I don't use it when someone else has rated it. The other bug bear is the pricing, false favourites, emotional money, small pools, big swings in price before jump, even bigger after, fast, good, slow, dead and heavy tracks. It has more variables than marriage and I've been at that 22 years and still can't fathom it out.

Here is a simple question for you. If you're average strike rate at selecting winners is 25% consistently, you have a bank of $500 and you are flat stakes betting. You back only runners that are paying max $3. How long before you have no bank?

Zlotti

I have been playing with "last minute" bets. I copy from WA Tab and paste, sort, etc into Excel using Macros (ie pretty automatic).

Zlotti said: "So, (the purist's aren't going to like this) I see an 8 runner race with 1 selection as a 7/1 chance of winning and start building from there. (Sad eh?)"

Whilst we all know this is pretty simplistic (Zlotti included), I don't know my form from my elbow either, but when looking for value has anybody considered the relative value of Place odds compared to Win odds.

I am considering looking at the highest Place/Win ratio (not favourite) and betting the place. This will often be 2nd or 3rd favourite, though not always. Going back through history has raised some pretty long odds at times, but history is not the same a 30secs before the off!

To save me time (and possibly money) has anyone attempted this type of calculation in real time before? Any other comments will of course be welcome.

SeeDee

Thanks for the vote of confidence, (I think) but let's see how http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=10079 goes before I reply in full!

How very true that is.

I've been working out ratings for NSW for a few months now and previously always struggled with converting them accurately to prices. When the system spits out its results on past data I come out about 3.2% ahead over the last 10 years (30,000 suitable races) just betting on the best horse regardless of price. Now I can price them reasonably accurately I can come out about 12.4% ahead just taking horses which finish with an SP above my rated price (now only 14000 bets). Only theoretical figures admittedly but quite encouraging of the bet when the price is right method.

To quote a famous hook nosed politician - Having said that let me say this:

On and off for about three weeks now I've been trying to use those prices to make (small) bets to try out the system. I'll have the real time odds up and a couple of sets of SP prices and I'm trying to get the best price on my horse provided it is above the price I set. It's taken me a bit of practice but I don't miss many bets now and usually get a reasonable price. But what a pain in the ******** this method of betting is!! Juggling three races, half a dozen screens, cursing because the price has gone down when you thought it was going up, deciding Best Div was going to pay more than fixed price but it dives at the last moment. I don't know if I could be bothered doing all this on a regular basis (although it does seem to be working according to plan). I suppose for some it's the thrill of the chase but I'd prefer a system where you can make the bets after the scratchings then sit back and relax and enjoy the races as they come up.

Anyway, my opionion Top Rank, Sure if you can price your horses accurately you can make more money - I think we all knew that anyway. But I'm working on another system where I can make money with less time staring at a computer screen.

Just read it back and I sound like a right whinger. Sorry about that. I don't hate it that much cause I'm here doing it again today, but I don't think I'd enjoy doing it permanently as a source of income.

Cheers

KV

Good afternoon. I'm in the middle of the "putting it to them" (no luck yet unfortunately) and have just zipped into this thread. Laughed out loud at KennyVictor's first post. Quite a few really entertaining people in this forum!!!
Have to disagree with you, Zlotti, however: successful punting is based on psychology and NOT mathematics. Likewise KV, you know my view that ratings are a dead end as,effectively all they tell you is that if the various horses racing around the place had somehow got together IN THE ONE RACE yesterday or on whatever day they ran the times/figure etc that constitute the ratings, we NOW KNOW who would've won ON THAT DAY!!! But what about tomorrow?
Last Saturday Flowerdrum paid $78 on Unitab (66s on course) in MR7. Why did it start so unfancied?? This mare was brought from England where it had 5 wins from 16 starts. It could've been with a mind to breeding BUT since it was being raced then we have to assume that someone thought they would make money with it. John Sadler put in in a 1300 race in April (last place) then a 1400 (2nd last, though it HAD a win in England at this distance). Last Saturday Sadler was still persisting over 1600 metres. Was he certifiably crazy (at those odds!!!!) OR was he telling us to get on? What was in his mind? Well, you might say the horse had "bad form" and Sadler was just being overly "hopeful" (ie irrationally optimistic) or you might say "John's got a plan". Oh, did I mention that Flowerdrum's OTHER 4 wins in England (from 8 starts = 50%!!!!) were over .......1600 metres? Now it's 5 from 9.
I had 11 bets using my method No1 for Flowerdrum, and Atapi ($21 IASbet). I do have a filter which just put Poetic Papal (150s into 70s) out,so I was still a little peeved despite those wins. I have two other angles (methods): one involving trainers placing their horses in the "wrong" race First Up, and the other to do with multiple entries from a trainer. Interesting thing is, for example, that (using 40-1 shots say) these horses win much MORE often than their "mathematically" expected rate. In simple terms not all longshots are the same in the way that every slot IS the same 36-1 chance on a roulette wheel.
Get inside the trainers heads and that's the end of ratings/form study and hours of HARD WORK. Cheers and good luck.
P.S. The last in Adelaide is paying 25s (the only longshot of the day) but I wasn't on it. Must look a little harder!!!

Punter57 you inflexible boffin.

I'm convinced I've only been pecking away at computer keys hour after hour for the last 12 months because my know it all Dad insisted "You'll never make any money betting on horses son". You are quicky becoming as big an incentive to prove the mathmatical approach works.
Glad to hear of your successes and I'm sure you must get great satisfaction from outwitting the **************s but OUR METHOD'S VIABLE TOO GODDAM IT.

There, I feel better now.

KV

Punter57

This is why we have free will and varying bets on a field of runners. You make your decision by getting inside someones head and I by adding up and reducing the overall risk. Could you imagine what would happen to the price of one of your selections if we all thought the same? 1388 people wagering between $1 and $nth on the same runner, what would you spend your $1.04 return on?

And finally, try telling the TAB or a Bookmaker that its NOT mathematics. They win when you win and win when you lose.... how is that possible I wonder? From a mathematical point of view, if you were in the middle of "putting it to them" and you have had "no luck yet unfortunately" the best you can do is breakeven. Unless of course you use a mathematical progressive staking method...

Good luck with whatever way you choose to bet.