Hermes,

I've spent the past 2.5 years (on and off) trying to work out a stats based system that works consistently. I developed one a couple of years ago that worked unbelievable well for a month or two then fell head over heals.

Only now am I confident about my system (different from early one).

The best advice I could give, having spent hours looking for a good method is keep old form guides. Results can be obtained easily from the Web, however form guides can't - Wizard charges $11 for back issues. So keep old form guides - if you do this for several months you will have plenty of data to work with.

My method tends to be more profitable betting for a win. Win strike rate is about 40% currently with avg div of $4.45. My place strike rate is about 70% - not high enough for place betting - marginally profitable but win betting seems to work much better. I'm considering adopting both methods and running separate banks in addition to a bank for exotics.

Not brand new to this, but new at such things as keeping records, trialling systems etc. Before that a casual fun better.

LOT of about 13.6% over 100 races with a fairly mechanical elimination method for picking placegetters in the trial I mentioned. Need at least 200 race sample to mean anything at all though really. I'm not getting excited.

I'm using the Zip ratings from the Sportsman coupled with recent form factors like last start and days since last start. In my sample only races with 12 or less runners.


Placegetter. You are obviously highly selective about races. Is number of runners a main factor? Simple maths says it must be easier to choose a first, second or third from a small field than from a large.

Thanks Chief. All sound advice. I have a modest collection of Sportsman at present. Slowly building up a database along with the online TAB results. Never tried the Wizard but interested to read topics in these forums about its merits.

$11 a back issue! Forget that!

There's a variety of opinions here on most issues but there seems something of a concensus about one thing: it is best to keep several banks, several systems, as insurance against each other.

A bank for exotics, Chief. Now at exotics I am brand new. Except the odd qiuinella now and then but mainly when I'm too feeble to choose between two good horses. A cop out more than a deliberate betting strategy. Quinellas appeal. Never tried an Exacta. Once lost heaps playing trifectas with mates one afternoon. My total experience of exotics.

I have a vague stragegy of starting with place betting, then win betting, then the rest sometime later maybe. Looking for ideas and systems along these lines.

Privateer and I had this discussion a few weeks back. Basically the race HAS to have more than 7 runners, watch how often your selection runs third in a seven horse field. after that, the size of the field only increases your dividend! I can confidently turn a 20 horse field into a 12 horse race anyway, if not, I don't bet on it.

Hermes, a good way to incorporate a win component into your predominantly place betting is to bet each way but with a multiple place ratio, say 1 x 4.

If the horse runs a place, it can pay as little as $1.30 and you'll still show a profit. If it wins, that's bonus money.

Also, re the field size...personally, I don't worry about that. If your selection method is sound it's the least of your worries. In fact I look forward to the larger fields as they tend to produce great place dividends for even the favoured runners(i.e. Falvelon in the Stradbroke $2.60).

[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-06-25 10:38 ]

Hermes,

Definitely a good idea to get win/place betting sorted out before you even consider exotics. I wouldn't necessarily go for place betting before win though - have a go at both (on paper first!) and see which works for you best - like Chief I have found win betting more profitable than place betting so I generally bet win only at the moment.

I don't necessarily agree that you HAVE to have multiple systems/banks going at once fron day 1. It is hard enough to come up with one winning system when starting out without trying to do 3 or 4 at once. What is important is that you have rules in place to protect your bank - I use one that says if I lose more than 25% of my starting bank in a week (or month if you are only betting a few times a week) then STOP BETTING and review your system. I also never bet more than 2% of my current bank in any bet.

computer entered the same posting twice - so i've taken one out.

[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-25 11:54 ]

Hermes,

A few ideas:

# If you believe that you can maintain a strike rate above 80%, then place betting may be the way to go. If you can't see this happening then you should look at win betting.

# If you bet for a win, it all depends on your avg div as to a req'd strike rate. My method is aimed at a strike rate above 30% and avg div of at least $4. That equates to 120%, or POT of 20%+. Currently it is well above that, however as long as it stays above 20% over the LT my bank will be doing fine.

# With Stats based systems, in my experience you need to construct one that has a set of rules that are not too rigid individually, but combined are powerful. By that I mean, if you have rigid rules they will knock out too many winners and you'll be left with hardly any good priced bets. For every criteria such as LS position, I use 2 or 3 moderate rules which combined are powerful, but individually aren't too daunting for horses to achieve.

# When trialling, only trial on "Paper" for a short period. The reason is, unless you place real money on selections you won't get a proper idea on how accurate the system is. That's because when you have marginal selections, one can ********** a little and include marginal winners, and exclude marginal losers. You'll have some horses which are on the border of being selections and you won't know whether to include them or not. But if you have to place real money on them, your results will be clear cut. I'd suggest placing small bets at the beginning, say $1/race. So if your system doesn't work too well, it doesn't matter much. If your system shows promise, then start increasing your bets, steadily. But don't go from betting $1/race to $50/race in a week, unless you can afford it, cause many systems have bad weeks and you don't want to give away a few hundred dollars straight away.

# Don't take it too seriously - have fun with your method. Horse racing can throw up some odd results at times which defy explanation, so don't get too serious otherwise you'll start going mad when you have a bad week or two. There is nothing worse then spending countless hours working out your selections/method and have it fall in a heap on race day. I'd suggest don't spend any more than 2 hours doing selections each race day. If it takes longer, you're system needs to be improved.

# Review your method regularly - don't make drastic changes if you have one bad week though. But you should review results and see if any minor modifications need to be made.

# Banks - you can operate just the one bank and still have multiple bet types, just keep accurate records on your computer as too which bet types are performing best.

# Field size - Depends on your approach. My system works best on fields on 9-16. However, if you're betting for a place or betting on horses above 10/1 then fields of 17-20 can be profitable as you will receive good divs - the Falvelon example was a good place bet, but a poor win bet in a field like that. Don't except under 10/1 in large fields if win betting, unless we are talking Sunline running against backmarkers. I also wouldn't accept place divs below $2.50 in large fields.



[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-25 12:07 ]

Chief - I agree ONLY IF your paper trialing is showing a profit - in this case move to real betting with small bets. If you can't make a profit on paper then don't bother trying with real money - keep going with the paper betting and revise your system until you can make a profit and only then move to the real thing. Remember that the horses will still be racing next month so don't be in too much of a hurry.