Desi posed the question earlier as to " how do you determine value ?" . The answer is probably much like the perennial question of how long is a piece of string. There is no correct answer only personal preference.

In short though,value determines wherther or not you will make a profit over the long term . If you consistently back $2.50 runners and only win 33% of the time you will make a loss. If you invest the same money on $4 runners which you have assessed at $2.50 and you are right 33% of the time you will make a profit.The art is in identifying runners that are otherwise not considered winning chances by the general public. One must identify runners whose odds are not diluted due to mass media exposure, sky flashers, late mail tips on the radio etc .

Another method is to use work out the percentage chance of your horse and multiplying this by the decimal percentage odds of each horse. Where i have rated a horse showing $4.00 in the pre race market at 100 % ( or points) I invest 25 units ( 100% x 100/$4.00) whereas if I rate the same horse at 90 points I wager 22.50 units ( 90% x 100/$4.00) and so on. Hope this helps anyway.

John

Thanks John and Mr Ed for your input...

I listen to 2ky in the mornings and follow their racing programme for the week...I have noticed that while some of the pundits who offer tips are quite good (agree race callers can come up with useful picks...must record which ones are lol) generally the rest of them would appear to fall way below the success rate % of forum members (eg William, XPT, Mav, Mr Ed, etc.)


My observation though is (and has been pointed out by your posts) that having the data, information, tips or whatever is only part of the equation and perhaps I may be overcomplicating the whole thing but I think I can improve on not so much my strike rate but my $$$ profit if I have a different approach...

I will follow up on your suggestions- watching the markets...working out what I feel is value in relation to the markets...and calculating the appropriate amount to wager on selections...

Thank you again...

Desi,

You can't look for value unless you have a price for your selection/s. Alternatively if you have a system that returns winners 25% of the time, getting more than $4.00 for your selections may then be considered value.

Once you have your price you can then know if what you are getting is value or not.

You will find there are generally two types of people on this forum.
Ones that by whatever method, price their selections and then shop for value.

And then others (by far the majority) who have a system that selects a certain percentage of winners and they just accept whatever the best price is they can get, regardless of whether it is value. They then hope that the average of the prices they can get is enough to show a profit.

You will get arguments for one or the other and I am not here to say one is better than the other, the choice is yours, as it always is when gambling on the horses. Destiny is in your own hands.

gday desi i find quinella betting fun more collects more often,choose ideally one meeting no need to bet on every rcea at that meeting when you find a race with limited chances say 4 selections and are certain that they are the only hopes then box them $6 for the $1 unit you will be surprised how often you collect,you wont get rich but lots of fun to be had.exacta betting is ok i like to put the short price fav to run second alone with say 3 or 4 in the market to win $4 for the $1 unit shorties have a habit of running second.good punting desi

i rarely bet at tamworth but there meeting on tuesday looks real good,take alook at these quinella suggestions and pretend you are working on the box four system.race1.1/3/4/5 race3.1/6/7/9 race5.3/6/7/9 race8.1/3/5/9 these bets would cost $24.00 for the dollar unit see what the return is at the end of the day.

16/08/05