Nanook,

thanks for the figures,

THE FIRST 3 LINES OF SP FOR HORSES THAT HADNT RACED WITHIN 21 DAYS REURNED A PROFIT!

THE FIRST 3 LINES OF SP FOR HORSES THAT HAD RACED WITHIN 21 DAYS DID NOT RETURN A PROFIT.

I REST MY CASE!




Marcus25,

yeah i understood the rule but i didnt get why the beaten favorite bit was included.



Sportz,

Thanks for the explination but it smacks of retro fitting to me,ie it wasnt based on what works best over a lengthy period of time but was introduced because a few good winners fitted the rule at the time of inclusion.

Yes, but I included the 21 days or less ONLY because it was a rule that I often used anyway, and deleting horses outside that range did seem to improve the situation in the test period, so why not.

It's only "retro fitting" if you introduce rules which you wouldn't normally use or which have no real logic behind them, purely because it makes the past figures look better.

This is meant only as constructive comment, I would have thought that the 21 day rule is self explanantory i.e.,. surely this relates to the horses fitness??
Why 21 days ?? .... why not 22 or 19 or 18, well I guess you just have to draw the line somewhere. Today I ruled out a place bet in PR2-2 Brockeys Ace purely on the 21 day rule (thankfully) but then missed PR4-5 Attadale on the same rule so there you go!

When relating to Metro class horses the 21 days refers exactly to three weeks.

Good horses don't race at flemington on saturday and then murtoa on friday in 20 days (usually). That's why the rule in general Weds to Weds, Sat to Sat etc.

When applying this rule it has to be flexible to account for 19,20,22,23 days based on the individual circumstances.

I still maintain horses stepping up in grade are a lot better value and do better than those stepping down. How many city placegetters go to the country and go around half the price they should be and run nowhere.

A real mugs bet in general.

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Sportz,

We seem to have different veiws on retro fitting,i maintain that if you base your rules on what works in a certain test period and not what will be best for long term profit then the system is doomed to failure.


Partypooper & Chrome,

You talk about fitness and good horses like they are the most important factors in this game,what about having a profitable edge or angle that most people are ignoring,surely that is more important,

Nanooks figures prove that the 21 days rule is a myth!

well i turned 21 21 yrs ago does that count

21 +21 = 42 = 4 + 2 = 6

So today in every meeting its race 6 horse 6 .

WHAT???????

Cheers.
darky.

Surely the 21 day rule would be dependant on whether the horses are sprinters, middle distance horses or stayers and what class of races are being targeted. quick turnarounds of 7 to 14 days seem to favor sprinters and it tells the punter one important fact, there have been no 'issues' with the horse since it's last start and it's fit and ready to go [again].

Blanket stats covering everything don't suit all systems and indeed all race types either. They can be quiet misleading. Barrier positions are a classic example of misleading stats. For all races they suggest there is no real inside barrier advantage [minute anyway]. Break them down to field sizes and I'd rather a draw from 1 to 7 in a 16 or 18 field sprint.

Oh no Crash, not that damn 1-7 thing again.

I feel exactly the same way about that rule as Dale does about the 21 day rule. I have no argument with anyone who wants to delete horses from wide barriers. I just can't work out what's so special about barrier 7 that he is left in while barrier 8 is out. Weird.

Similarly, I guess you could say why is 21 days allowed but 22 days not. Well, as Chrome suggested, when concentrating on Metro races, the 21 days refers to exactly three weeks, Sat to Sat, or even Wed to Wed. Now, it may not always work out, but over the years, I've pretty much stuck to that 21 day rule.

If you have a mechanical system with set rules, you have to have a cutoff point somewhere. I guess that is Crash's answer to the barrier 7 thing too.

I guess that's the difference between a mechanical system which you stick rigidly to and a general set of rules which you can vary slightly depending on the situation.