Re your post #30,
Risk of ruin calculator can be downloaded at www.twonix.com under the heading "punting articles" at left of page.

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

JFC.
And Einstein and all you other scientists!
You are all very clever.
But you take the fun out of gambling.
Bit like that bloke who tells you the answer as to why that woman wasn't really sawn in half.
I know she wasn't really sawn in half.But it sure is entertaining.

Perhaps you should offer your juvenile paternalistic advice to Dr William Ziemba, who I presume recently co-authored a pertinent book with William Benter.

I'm prepared to bet that Benter is not the most successful gambler in the world as whoever that might be would probably shun publicity, but most people would be content with Benter's Powerball equivalent a year.

http://finmath.stanford.edu/seminar...emba2004Win.ppt

Sing it with me...

"Duritz is always running around, trying to find, certainty..."

Expected run of outs for 10% = 65
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''' 20% = 31

Betting level stakes , bank should be at least 3.5 times the run of outs.
E.g. 10% SR for a run of outs of 65 X 3.5 = 228
Bet $1.00 for a bank of $228

20% run of outs 31 X 3.50 = 109
Bet $1.00 for a bank of $109

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Expected run of outs for 10% = 65
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''' 20% = 31

Bagman, how did you arrive at the above [what formula] ?

'Expected' [it will probably happen] just doesn't make sense. Have you worked out the odds of either of the above happening ? So why are they expected and why did you settle on 65 and 31 ? Why not more [or less]?

I think it would be a very long wait indeed for either of the above outs to ever happen. They might happen, yet so might 200 runs of outs for either 10% or even 20%. It's seems like nonsense to me to say this is the [definitive?] run of outs you can expect. Please explain, I'm mystified. Thanks.

Bhagwhan THANKS for that, that is EXACTLY the kind of answer I am looking for, now could you kindly tell us the maths used to arrive at those answers, so I can apply it to other examples?

Crash - Grade 3 schoolboys know the maths for working out the odds of a series of outs as in your example. In that respect, with a calculator or Excel I can happily calculate the LIKELIHOOD of any series of outs, which is the maths you provided, but that's not the question I asked. The question I asked is what run of outs should one prepare to expect at some point, given the strike rates, and THEREFORE what is a safe betting level, given the strike rates? That is exactly what Bhaghwan has endeavoured to (and seemingly succeeded to) answer.

No harm though Crash, always do enjoy your electic posts.

But, again, Bhagwan, show us the maths please?

Actually Grade 3 schoolboys DON'T know the maths. If they did then what are they still doing in Grade 3?

But Duritz, if you claim to be able to do such basic probability, how can you NOT realise that once more Bhagwan is talking nonsense.

Obviously the largest run of outs increases with the more bets you make.

Anyway here are the maths.

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Run.html

To paraphrase Groucho, maybe a Grade 3 schoolboy can understand that, but where on Earth am I going to find one.

Thank you JFC, I feel vindicated. I also think Bagman's figures say nothing. I had previous stated on an earlier page: 'Expected runs of outs' are meaningless. I did however extent the courtesy for him to explain his reasoning.
I had explained previously [3rd or 4th post here] how to work out [simply] the odds of an any run of outs. The odds of various possible outs happening are more meaningful and useful than 'expected". Surely a grade 3 schoolboy should have been able to take it from there for their betting purposes Duritz ?

Cheers.

Was that:
a) eclectic.
b) electric.
c) epileptic.
d) I should buy a better dictionary.

KV