Keep it up moeee im finding it an enjoyable read and quite interesting. The only dog that stands out for mine today at sale is arvo's athena in the 5th.

OK I've been inspired out of my laziness to apply my method to the Sale dogs today. It is an extension of what I posted advising Mooee ealier in the thread, and here's the results of handicapping based on that. Only the raced brigade have been rated. If a dog hasn't raced, it is ignored for the sake of this method:


Race 1 name price
3 STONEYS CHOICE $2.9
5 BAYLES MAGIC $4.7
7 BIG RUSO $6.1
4 POPS MEMORY $6.1
8 CAMERA SHY $14.5
6 FOXY TIGER $29.9
2 KANSAS JACK $64.1

Race 2 name price
3 MISS DAISY $1.9
2 SALE CITY $2.4
5 SNOW EXCEPTION $20.8
6 KINGA LAD $48.1

Race 3 name price
8 JOEL LEIGH $3.9
5 TEDDY EVIL $4.1
2 MADDYS TERRAH $5.6
3 GALLOPING TARA $6.7
1 FUNKY BOMBER $9.2
4 MOVE OUT $21.4
6 DAMAS DOZA $92.6
7 CRICKET CUTIE $294.2

Race 4 name price
8 THIS IS LIVING $1.6
1 ELECTRIC ELLIE $6.6
7 GRAND DUTCHESS $7.5
2 STRATHMORE $21.8
5 COMMANDO SHANE $41.0
3 MELALLY LAD

Race 5 name price
8 ATOMIC JET $3.5
1 JABBER WOCKY $4.4
2 ARVOS ATHENA $6.1
7 ROCKY $7.4
3 ENDLESS PIT $8.4
4 LEE LU SUSIE $15.2

Race 6 name price
7 BRIDGE OF HOPE $2.0
6 BLUE MANIA $5.7
5 SHELBURN $9.0
3 LINUS $12.5
1 FUZZ $16.0
8 TUCKER THIEF $31.3
2 FESTER CRAWFORD $50.5
4 DUCAL PRINCESS $78.1

Race 7 name price
1 STAY COOL $2.1
8 JAILHOUSE ROCK $4.6
6 KICKBACK MISS $11.0
4 LATROBE WARRIOR $11.1
7 SPANISH DRUM $15.4
5 FREDS GRANDO $21.2
2 DETERMINATOR $64.9
3 SMURFS ATLANDRIA $277.8

Race 8 name price
7 JOEL ALEX $3.9
6 FLYING VIRUS $4.5
8 BILLIE GENE $5.6
1 SCORCHIN $6.3
2 FEEL THE FURY $9.3
4 BLUE BONNIE $20.4
5 REMAIN SILENT $62.5
3 BAMBOO $92.6

Race 9 name price
2 SYONIC STORM $2.3
8 TWISTED TEDDY $5.8
4 BRETT TO WING $9.6
5 BE HUMBLE $12.8
1 BEAU IDEAL $13.9
6 RAITCHU $16.3
10 PANDORA LASS $17.5
3 GALLOPING GAIL $75.8

Race 10 name price
6 SCRUM $4.2
7 SILENT RUNNING $4.6
2 REGAL JAMES $6.3
8 JAGATH $6.9
3 KILMANY GHOST $12.1
5 EFFJAY HORRO $14.4
4 WILD WENCH $14.9
1 ZOLAS GIRL $43.5

There is no off position on the genius switch.

So down $28
and $10
Then another $15
and yet another $36

WHAT'S THAT? - A RETURN? - YOU'RE KIDDING?
My Goodness!

Okay running tally.

Invested $89 - Return $34.20

POT = 34.2 - 89 = -61%

Loss of $54.20

What did we buy for this big loss.
For one thing,my Comfort Factor is not $100 but more like $50.
So the actual wagers will be halved from now on.
And I really need to sort out those short races like the Cranbourne 311 metres.They are killing me!
And perhaps move out of the poor quality and get into some reasonable quality races.
The concern here is that the fair dinkum form students would be concentrating on these races so the value would be eaten up by the professionals.

The value being eaten up by the professionals is a fallacy Mooee, because we all get the same odds on the dogs. If they were eating up the value, then there'd not only be none left for you, there'd be none left for them too, thereby defeating the purpose.

Hey BTW about track records, trust me, they vary greatly. You'll improve the method markedly as soon as you stop using them and use average times.

If it looks like a horse and walks like a horse,then it is probably a horse.
The only way to judge whether the ratings being outputted are accurate,is to record the results.
And the sample has to be large.I CAN'T WAIT!
So I have decided to rate races where I have some sort of idea of the main chances and approximate prices using the Watchdog formguide assessed prices.
Then I can compare the ratings suggestion of the market.

GEELONG Race 8.

1. TUSKEN RAIDER -5.5 5% $20
2. FLYING EOS -6.8 3% $33
3. DYNA SHERLOCK -5.9 4% $23
4. PEDRO ALLEN -4.3 8% $12
5. SCRATCHED
6. WANNADOO Winner 45% $2.20
7. FIRING ZONE -3 13% $7.30
8. ROUGE FOX -2.2 20% $5.20

Okay.So looking at these,there are 2 concerns.
The white has had a lot of success in Queensland and is having its 1st start here.Did I under estimate its ability?.It left the scene 2 months ago with ordinary form.Will the trainer have it near its peak?Just in case it runs its best let's adjust its rating.

And the other query is will the PINK be able to run out the distance.
I am having a lot of trouble with dogs running well over short distances and failing over further.This is mainly due to my yardstick of using track records being wrong.Let's adjust here as well.

The chances are now.

1. TUSKEN RAIDER $21
2. FLYING EOS $36
3. DYNA SHERLOCK $23 down to $6.10
4. PEDRO ALLEN $12.40
5. SCRATCHED
6. WANNADOO $2.20 out to $2.40
7. FIRING ZONE $8.00
8. ROUGE FOX $5.20 out to $7.10

I find these a very comfortable set of prices.
So the betting goes like this:

TRIFECTA
6/3,7,8/3,4,7,8 - cost is $4.50

And the Green for $20 a win at over $3.20 but will take any odds.

Moeee,

As per your request in the other thread here is my analysis of the Cranbourne Race 5 (races in 15mins)

Dog	TAB_No	Norm Dist Odds
INQUISITIVE JAY	1	$ 14,558.86
TURBO UNO	2	$ 1.88
FLICKA FRIEND	3	$ 29.47
GUNNADOO CHARM	4	$ 2.51
DYNA CONROD	5	$ 43.08
DYNA JEWEL	6	$ 78.97
MOONSHINE MAGIC	7	$ 41,930.01
BLACK BUBBLE	8	$ 17,579.07

This program doesn't give the exact market figures but lets you identify which dogs to concentrate on. I wouldn't bet this race normally but for today lets see how this pans out for a fun bet : Any2 for dogs 2 , 4 and 3.

Sorry about the colours but it was a cut paste job from excel.

Hope this helps.

OK by the time I wrote the thread the race was just about to start.

It finished with Number 2 winning.

One thing I forgot to mention was that was a 3 race rating. Below is the 2 race rating :

Dog	TAB_No	Norm Dist Odds
INQUISITIVE JAY	1	$ 24.32
TURBO UNO	2	$ 1.80
FLICKA FRIEND	3	$ 9.69
GUNNADOO CHARM	4	$ 320,400.78
DYNA CONROD	5	$ 15.34
DYNA JEWEL	6	$ 4.24
MOONSHINE MAGIC	7	#DIV/0!
BLACK BUBBLE	8	#DIV/0!

Depending on the number of races you go back you will get different numbers. I usually look around the 2 race rating, 3 race rating and 5 race rating before determining my selections.

Obviously in this race we should have taken the any2 using the 2 race rating as it resulted in paying $4.10 with 2 and 6 coming in. It also picked the quinella paying $8.20 and exacta paying $7.80

Good Luck

I don't understand why you have 2 sets of ratings WESNIP.
Firstly Gunnadoo Charm is way overs,but in the other market,Dyna Jewel is way overs.
Obviously one or both of those markets is wrong.
I didn't rate that race yet,but will try and be honest without bias and do it soon.
I would like to see if I can run as well as you did by picking the winner.
Today I had a shortie called WANNADOO and it ran nowhere.
And the winner had 8 starts at the track distance for one minor placing.
And the winner only pays $5.40!
Can anyone out there tell me the system that predicted Pedro Allen as being the winner?
That is the system I would like to read more about.

Bye the way THANKS WESNIP.

Moeee,

The way the ratings work is purely based on times (with some track and box bias). Obviously each race time is going to be different for different reasons.
Thus the different ratings look at different time frames for the race times. The first rating (2 races) takes a look at a shorter number of races thus I class this as the current form of the dog. Whichever dog shows the lowest odds using this is more than likely the dog in "form". The 3 race rating is the one most people use as it allows a better feel for the last month of racing in the dogs career.
The 5 race rating (if available) is used for the medium term - longer term rating that shows which dogs have performed over their career. Further back than 5 races isn't really necessary but I sometimes do it if a dog has raced a lot.

The ratings allow me to look at which dogs have improved over the 5 race period and also which dogs just ran into a bit of bad luck. I usually look for a certainity which is a og which rates lower than $1.20 on all 3 ratings and then I check out the form. The form usually shows a couple of the other dogs got checked heavily. For instance you said Pedro Allen, Did you know in its last 8 starts it had been checked 6 times. This is because it was a bit slow out of the box, or because it had bad box draws. It lost a combined 22 lengths due to the checks. This shows that if this dog actually got a clear run he was a good chance. On the other hand our favourite Wannadoo had only been checked 4 of his last 8 starts and hadn't been checked at all in his 3 previous starts. This is because he usually gets away quickly but looking at his draws he has been running out of the inside boxes recently and this could have been improving his chances. Looking at Wannadoo also shows that he has not raced well in outside boxes with no wins from boxes 6,7,8.

So based on the form it looks like Wannadoo is not such a good selection after all. In fact it is about even with Pedro Allen if Pedro Allen can get a clear run. Of course in box 4 I wouldn't think this likely. o lets go to the speed charts. Looking at those Pedro Allen has the best split time marginally. And Box 5 is scratched which will give Pedro Allen an easier run. looking at his rating he had a Quick escape from the box last race and there is a good chance he could repeat this performance.

Looking further into this I noticed the dog in box 2 has been running wide which could be a problem for Pedro Allen. He has a 1 dog gap and this may be enough to get clear before any collisions occur. This also shows me the dog in Box 1 is going to get a nice clean run through the first corner. So my rating for Dog 1 should be up a bit more as he should get a good run and miht be able to rail it and get to the lead.

Finally the dog who ran third has a great record from box 8. He likes to run from the outisde boxes so he needs a rating boost as well.

I could through this for most of the dogs but it takes a long time to rate a race properly. That is why i use my 3 rating system to come up with some selections and then I concentrate on these races.

I hope this explains how I do some of my form and might help you in some of your ratings.

Good Luck.