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#21
7th January 2006, 10:53 PM
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Sportz - not to discredit, b/c ratings are a hard business to perfect, but a word of advice: perfect the method of rating prior to perfecting the method of punting.
There are some errors, unfortunately. Examples - Lad of the Manor (118) outrates Lotteria (114). Lad of the Manor outrates Spark of Life (116) and Takeover Target (116) (two best sprinters in country) Xcellent (117) outrates those sprinters and Lotteria. Leica Falcon rates the same as TTarget and SOfLife???????? Desert War only rates 112. Zipping rates 114. Sur Dex (113) outrates Desert War (112) Railings (115) rates inferior to Leica Falcon (116) even though Railings is a multiple G1 winner, Leica Falcon's best win a G3, the time they met Railings beat Leica Falcon, carrying more weight. That one needs serious examination. As I said - not trying to discredit, but work these out properly, or else like the house built on bad foundations, all else will fail. Good luck, it's a long journey. 
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#22
8th January 2006, 09:06 AM
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Duritz,
You are simply looking at the horses' overall records, whereas my ratings are a combination of things: (a) My personal opinion of the ability of the horse, (b) It's previous record, (c) It's current record, (d) It's ability to win it's upcoming race. If I simply rated them on their overall records, I would probably agree with most of your examples of 'errors', but I don't. For example, 75% of horses on the list are currently spelling, so their next run will be their first-up run, and a fair part of the rating is based on how I expect them to go in their next run. So, I'll go through your examples: Lad Of The Manor is a top horse, but more importantly, he's a terrific first-up & second-up horse, so I've basically given him a bonus for that. (2 other good examples are Red Oog and Confectioner, both terrific first-up horses. I've rated them both about 2-3 kgs higher than I'd rate them later in their campaigns.) So that's why I have Lad Of The Manor rated so highly. I agree Lotteria could possibly be rated slightly higher than she is though, because she also has a 100% first-up record. I may reassess her rating when it comes time for her first-up start. Xcellent's rating is based on dry tracks (if it's a wet track, he simply won't qualify) and also races over middle distances to staying events. He is unlikely to race in Australia early in his campaign anyway (if at all), so he won't be racing against horses like Takeover Target, Spark Of Life etc. The same applies to Leica Falcon. His rating is based on how I think he'll go in longer races. He simply won't be racing against the top sprinters you mentioned as he only qualifies from 1400 on. I think he'll have a terrific year and be highly competitive in anything from 1400-3200. Railings, by comparison, needs 1600m and he doesn't go well first-up, so that's why I've rated him inferior at this stage. He DOES however have a terrific 2nd-up record, so when it comes time for his 2nd-up run, I will probably raise his rating. A similar story with Desert War. 4 previous first-up runs for just 2 thirds. And he's never won at less than 1600m. That's why I've rated him about 2-3 kgs lower than I would have him later in his campaign. Meanwhile, Sir Dex has quite a good first-up record and has won at shorter distances, so I think it's reasonable to have him rated ahead of Desert War, based on how they should go at their next runs. Zipping's high rating is just my personal opinion. On his previous record, he probably only deserves to be rated at 53(111), but I just think he's highly promising. The same applies to a few other up and coming horses which I've rated higher than you might expect. (ie. Leica Falcon) Hope that explains everything. I'm reasonably confident with how I've rated the top horses. At the moment, I think my biggest mistake has been being too lenient and including too many horses with insufficient class. But I think things will improve when the quality of the racing increases. Last edited by Sportz : 8th January 2006 at 09:19 AM.
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#23
8th January 2006, 09:19 AM
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Oh so these ratings are for where they are right now, ie if they're spelling, where they'll be first up. I thought they were like say the timeform ratings or the world-ranking ratings or the expert form ratings - what their peak is.
Apologies, however I think in that case you may be taking six steps when one was all that was needed. I'll be interested to see how it evolves. PS - Leica Falcon, Xcellent etc not running against Takeover Target and Spark of Life doesn't mean the ratings shouldn't be comparable. The ratings should cut across boundaries like distance so you can compare sprinters and two milers and say - which was better, based on what they did at their distance?
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#24
14th January 2006, 01:07 PM
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Saturday Jan 14
Today's rated runners: GCST R3 - 1 HAVANA WIND, 3 WILLY LEICA GCST R4 - 2 DECIBEEL, 3 PERMISSIVE, 4 COINCIDENTAL GCST R5 - 13 FASHIONS AFIELD, 14 PINEZERO GCST R6 - 1 COOL FRONT, 2 DEUXIEME, 3 AMEX, 4 MITANNI, 5 FUMBLE GCST R8 - 1 ALL BAR ONE, 4 COVET THEE, 5 ALGORITHM CANT R8 - 5 SMART MAXIE SAND R4 - 1 TOULOUSE LAUTREC, 2 CANDY VALE SAND R5 - 1 FOREST SPY, 5 GIBERNAU
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#25
14th January 2006, 01:18 PM
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Today's selections:
Plan 1 GCst R3 - 1 Havana Wind & 3 Willy Leica GCst R4 - 3 Permissive & 4 Coincidental GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield GCst R6 - 1 Cool Front GCst R8 - 1 All Bar One Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie Sand R4 - 1 Toulouse Lautrec Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy Plan 2 GCst R3 - 3 Willy Leica GCst R4 - 4 Coincidental GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield GCst R6 - 3 Amex & 4 Mitanni GCst R8 - 1 All Bar One Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie Sand R4 - 2 Candy Vale Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy & 5 Gibernau Plan 3 GCst R3 - 3 Willy Leica GCst R4 - 4 Coincidental GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield GCst R6 - 3 Amex GCst R8 - 5 Algorithm Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy & 5 Gibernau Plan 5 GCst R6 - 2 Deuxieme Plan 6 GCst R4 - 2 Decibeel & 4 Coincidental Sand R5 - 5 Gibernau Plan 7 GCst R3 - 1 Havana Wind GCst R4 - 2 Decibeel GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield GCst R6 - 1 Cool Front GCst R8 - 5 Algorithm Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy Plan 8 GCst R3 - 3 Willy Leica GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy
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#28
14th January 2006, 05:29 PM
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Quote:
Had him on top... not damn at all 
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#29
14th January 2006, 05:34 PM
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Quote:
Gday Sportz... I dunno about that....as they say u can't win em all... but the Coast was ok today.. struck a couple of winners on top thru the day so It was a good result for me. There were a couple of longies get up.. but it wouldn't be a feature day without the long shots coming up now n then In the MM they hyped Churchill Downs and he may have been unlucky, missed that start according to the caller... I liked the horse that ran 3rd at big odds... I couldn't find Singo's runner tho.. you would have to be good to find that one
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#30
14th January 2006, 05:41 PM
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Yeah, I noticed you had Tereschenko on top. Well done.
I'm just mad at myself for not including it in the ratings list this week. Oh well, never mind. Live and learn. A day like this with roughies getting up tends to suit you more than me. Last edited by Sportz : 14th January 2006 at 05:46 PM.
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