Hi Crash,
I see a lot of people giving a lot of weight to PP odds. Explain to me if you will the logic behind basing bets on PP odds as opposed to say SP odds.

Cheers,
KV

Kenny,

The main difference for a system is you can put your bets on after knowing track condt. rather than being in front of the pc. [most people aren't in the position to do that or don't want to be] before each jump. Mechanically, PP is based on past performance ratings for a good track. The data boys hate them as they haven't the data base for PP mostly to do a 'past 5yrs.' check.

For today and tomorrow with odds from the Herald Sun but I use $2.50 to $7 as newspapers dont print PP's of $6.80 [most people would use a Newspaper] this is what the system has lined up [original rules as I have printed]:

Must be Good track to bet.

Friday; Walcha R4/6 Mafia don
Saturday:
Cheltenham: R5/11 Slinky Nandina
Rosehill: R1/1 Bye Bye Bella, R3/4 Palabiro, R7/10 Aqua D'amore
Doomben R1/1 Moving North, R6/6 Minassi, R7/1 Shysu

Check em' out. Nothing wrong with that line up !

Just noticed the Walcha bet is a Cups race. Scratch that as a bet. Interesting to see how it goes, but Cups are not generally good performers for this system.

Hi crash, and grub,
After 3 months of chopping and changing, adding and subtracting this system, I have ruled 2005 off and started afresh for 2006.
I agree with crash on a couple of things, well maybe one.
Cups – out, especially if it is the venues name as was Wakcha today.
Below are the rules that I know of that Crash first wrote about.

1. Sat. Metro Adl. Syd. Brisb. No Hurdles, Maidens or 2yr. old races.
2.Add placings last 4 starts. Total must be no more than 9 [0 or S =10] Ed: I use this rule in a lot of my systems as it guarantees decent form and fitness.
3. Last start must have been 21 days or less
4. Track no worse than dead.
5. Max weight 57kg after any apprentice allowances.
6. Morning line odds no more than $7 from:

I must admit I have never looked at track conditions. I also have changed rule five and rule six.
Been happy with the metro ones, I then looked at the non metro. Then I separated the provincial and country venues, and have a different rule for each.

Under $3.00 price - I made a profit Sept, Oct, Dec, and a loss Nov and January.. but I have found a rule that eliminates just about all bar a handle full - well left me with two for one win - january. Yesterday there was only one at rocky r2-3 morning glory. But i am about to put rocky into prov status.

So far this year
Metro Jan 16r x 9w $41.90
Metro Feb 10r x 4w $14.80

Prov 15r x 8w $50.80

Country 12r x 5w $21.30
(however applying the rule that I have for under $3.00, it would result in 4r x 2w $23.70) both paper price's were $6.50 & $5.50

I would be really interested in your findings Grub and what results you can find

Crash I did send you not one but two dollars, but it must of rolled down your beautifully manicured lawn into the lake there. maybe if you put on your scuba diving gear you maybe be able to find it :-)

Would you buy a system with the following results?

WIN S/R 20.1% (Av. Price $6.16) 23% POT
PLC S/R 44.3% (Av. Price $2.43) 36.6% POT

EXACTA SYSTEM
EXA S/R 11.1% (Av. Price $27.46) 20.1% POT

TRIFECTA SYSTEM
TRI S/R 11.1% (Av. Price $270.72 based 40.6% of full divy) 21.7% POT

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Feather,

How do you know our 'perfectly manicured' lawn slopes down into the lake? Are you closer than I think? The Brake is getting into her scuba gear as we speak....

Did you have a good look at that Walcha Cup [wish I did]. Mafia Don ran 3rd. The bottom weight and best priced won at 20/1 [small field too] which just 'happened' to have Dale Spriggs on board and just 'happened' to have a very poor lead up to the race [to get the min. weight] and just 'happened' to have won the race last year !!! Feather I think you would have done a lot better if you had stuck to good tracks. Wet tracks stuff up the PP odds.

Stix,
I wouldn't buy any system [except this one of mine for a $1 and anything the management here is offering of course :-)]

Thanks Crash/feather,

I look forward to having a play as time permits.


feather,

Youre results for this year are pretty grand - might have to look into you disregarding track condition and see if that might be a deceptive edge there or perhaps look at including them if they have some wet track form. Anyway lots to think about. Thats what makes this whole thing enjoyable - die of boredom just following a set of rules (no matter how good they are) and not trying to analyse and improve.

Got to run and working tomorrow so I might post tomorrow evening what selections I had for SAT from original rules and see if you can set me on the right track.

Cheers

Grub

Not withstanding crash, your hatred of system sellers.... the statistics (although proven... but excluded for our arguments sake) would not appeal to you... ??

If it was free.... of course there would be plenty of takers, but not the thrust of my hypothisis......

Is there anyone that would consider parting with their "hard earned" on a system that worked !! ...... not over a specified period of time, but over any period you named.... within the last 10 years?....... me no speak &H^T

You can only do your best and offer.....

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

I had a good look today at all meetings from WA tabonline. For the original rules I came up with this lot below. Aqua D'amore was in a Stakes race, so I dropped that one [could easily win it]. Another I dropped was in a F&M race.

Cheltenham: R5/4 Chemin*

Rosehill: R1/1 Bye Bye Bella, R3/4 Palabiro

Doomben R1/1 Moving North, R3/1 Milady Clang,
R4/3 Lasting Luck*, R6/6 Minassi*

Hobart R2/3 Concurrent*

Stand outs*

Hi Crash!
I do not use your system rules, but in some races we are remarkably close with the selections.
Could it be, that by using (any) sensible selection criteria, the most likely horses to win or place in that race will come to the top? (at least ON paper, anyway!)

here are my selection for the same races

CHE race5: 4,1,8,6
ROS race1: 1,4,2,9
..... race3: 4,2,6,1
DOO race1: 11,6,10,2 /this is the only one we differ markedly
...... race3: 5,1,3,4
...... race4: 1,3,7,12
...... race6: 12.4.6,7
ELW race2: 1,3,2,9