OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#21

17th February 2006, 09:47 AM

Stix

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Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 3,012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merriguy

Interesting thread, guys --- but I can't see you getting any big returns by backing the favourite with the field in races with only six starters

The maths simply don't work out. The fields have to be bigger; or the standout has to be other than the favourite or near favourite.

Think strike rate is the key...... it has to be.....!!

Granted, larger divy's in larger fields, but strike rate should compensate for that. The reliance on a few roughies to fill the placings is what has to tick it over.... I say good luck and I'm in for the ride.....

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#22

17th February 2006, 10:32 AM

Real Deal

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 550

Let's be honest, no matter what the facts say-any profit i will be happy with over a fair period of time. I have found barring the massive roughie roughie 2nd and 3rd where it pays quite well that the best results come when it is an even field, even though the favourite still wins-normally you can double or triple your outlay due to a few winning chances.

Guys time will tell, but i am going to try and see this one through till autmns end at least.

#23

17th February 2006, 10:48 AM

Sportz

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Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 11,973

Mav will tell you about it. This is the way he bets. Takes his top pick to win from the field and just hopes roughies come home in the placings.

#24

17th February 2006, 10:50 AM

Stix

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Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 3,012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sportz

Mav will tell you about it. This is the way he bets. Takes his top pick to win from the field and just hopes roughies come home in the placings.

...... and the winner

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#25

17th February 2006, 10:53 AM

Imagele

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Tasmania

Posts: 383

Quote:

Originally Posted by Real Deal

Should the favourite win these 2 races it will be interesting to compare the exacta dividend with the trifecta dividend.
i.e. the fav./field exacta- $4-00 unit.=$20-00

#26

17th February 2006, 12:25 PM

Stix

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Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 3,012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Imagele

Should the favourite win these 2 races it will be interesting to compare the exacta dividend with the trifecta dividend.
i.e. the fav./field exacta- $4-00 unit.=$20-00

I'm an exacta man - hence why I opened a UNITAB account (Im a Victorian), where (as I stated elsewhere on this forum) the divys for exacta consitently out perform that of TAB and S-TAB.

Some unbelievable

examples of exacta results:

28 Dec Cobram Harness bet was R7 10-2,9,11
- S-TAB $ 174.1
- NSW TAB $92.0
- UNITAB $959.8

12 Jan Geelong Harness bet was R8 5-2,6,7
- S-TAB $133.8
- NSW TAB $158.2
- UNITAB 419.1

An example of where the exacta outstriped the tri was on:

28 Dec Cobram Harness bet was R7 10-2,9,11
Exacta R7 10-2,9,11 for $1 unit - Cost = $3.00 Return $959.8 POT = 31,993%
Trifecta R7 10-2,9,11-Field for $1 - Cost = $27 Return $1585.6 POT = 5,872%
So if you had the exacta 9 times (9 x $3 = $27) the return would of been $8,638.2

12 Jan Geelong Harness bet was R8 5-2,6,7
Exacta R8 5-2,6,7 for $1 unit - Cost = $3.00 Return $419.10 POT = 13,903%
Trifecta R8 5-2,6,7-Field for $1 - Cost = $24 Return $1830.4 POT = 7,626%
So if you had the exacta 8 times (8 x $3 = $24) the return would of been $3352.8

And yes I was on the end of these little rippers....

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#27

17th February 2006, 12:50 PM

Tubby

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Posts: 152

I too love exactas Stix and have been "lured" in by some similar results to the examples you have given. However I also find (and this is purely anecdotal) that there is just as many (if not more) races where the exacta is a bit disappointing. I sometimes wonder if I would be better just putting the equivalent money into a boxed quinella (i.e. a greater number of units).

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#28

17th February 2006, 01:20 PM

Stix

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Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 3,012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tubby

I too love exactas Stix and have been "lured" in by some similar results to the examples you have given. However I also find (and this is purely anecdotal) that there is just as many (if not more) races where the exacta is a bit disappointing. I sometimes wonder if I would be better just putting the equivalent money into a boxed quinella (i.e. a greater number of units).

I must admit I'm more often suprised by the divy than disappointed... and helped by the fact that UNITAB still out performs the others....

Boxed Quinellas would certainly improve my strike rate which is currently 12.6% to about 28%, but would sacrifice divy return I reckon....... However the av. Div of $69.9 makes up for that and 205% POT soothes any residual worries

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#29

17th February 2006, 01:27 PM

Ade

Member

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 207

Good luck with this selections Real Deal. I'll put a dollar on those as well, they do look good chances.

Best of luck!

#30

17th February 2006, 01:41 PM

Real Deal

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 550

Hmmmm. Not the best of starts for my first collect. will post results after next race.

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