#21
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Well that was lucky. First blood to me on Betfair with Bowhunter home at $8 [paid $8.30w Stab]. I'm happy with $8w but should have had $50 on it ! |
#22
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![]() Most of the action is in the last few minutes just like the other markets. Generally up until then the Betfair prices are much worse than on the tote. A rule of thumb I use is that if you can get on at a price that looks pretty similar to the Tote prices early in the betting, your probably looking at a runner that is going to be a big drifter. Although this is just an observation. I've not tested it.
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#23
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![]() Thanks for that tip. I was like a lost little lamb, but at least I took some Layer's money :-)
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#24
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Crash, I suggest you download the Betfair Advantage Tool. It claims that Bowhunter at jump was backable at $10.50 and paid over 20% better than all TABs. In this instance you probably would have been better off offering to back it at (say) $11.50. Rather than paying the virgin tax. Chances are for a longshot like that you would have been hit. If not then you could always negotiate a bit down as a last resort. |
#25
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Will get the Advantage download. I don't think these Layers can Handicap from a decent form guide. Bowhunter at $10.50? They are insane. I jumped on at an early $8 because I thought it would go down to about $4 ! |
#26
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Well, one man's trash is another man's treasure I guess. Nice job. |
#27
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![]() Howdy Crash,
Good to hear you're a convert. Soon enough you'll forget all about the TAB's and wonder where this service has been all your life, LOL. As for your questions, personally i prefer to use the bookies fixed price markets as a comparison, as the tote can often be difficult to judge with all the jumping around. Plus you know that should the tote be displaying a large overlay to the bookies market, plenty o' moola will be acomin'. Similarly, Bowhunter (Col Tidy + IAS) opened at 8's and 7's respectively, drifted to 9's before shortening to close at 8's. Under this arrangment you might set a price of 10's on betfair and should things move against you, take the 9's with the bookie etc etc. Certainly should you see $10.50, you would be inclined to have a nibble. Just my preference, but seems to work. (EDIT: I should add that the above would apply to the more fancied runners). Oh and don't forget to include a 5% premium in your betfair prices to compensate for the commission.
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I like Bing Lee. Last edited by mad : 14th February 2007 at 02:20 PM. |
#28
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#29
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crash, You'll notice some very strange prices on Betfair. In some instances you can make a killing, others you'll wonder why bother with Betfair at all. It's about picking and choosing I guess. Also you have to allow that you are going from a big percentage takeout to a slim one. Therefore prices will generally be over what you expect. Within this though are movements that can definitely be taken advantage of (including early markets).
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#30
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![]() Thanks for all the info. from everyone. Hopefully I can fill a few jam jars [little ones to start with].
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