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#22
23rd February 2007, 05:40 AM
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Mark's progress:
$3000 bank. 24 picks, 13 bets, 12 winners, 92.3% strike rate. Total profit = + $129.00, or +4.3% of balance. For the poor among us: $300 bank = $12.90 profit divided by X amount of hours effort = y$ per hr. profit [?] On the up-side though, the hourly rate here should gradually improve:-) 
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#23
23rd February 2007, 10:51 AM
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Friday
Bank: $3129 Bets: $31.29, $18.77 and $12.51. Now the all important losers. Albury R1 3 BARNESSA R2 8 EASY DOZEN R3 9 MR MELBA R4 6 PREDOMINANCE R5 6 MEXICAN WIND R6 10 CONCHITTA R7 5 STASH OF GOLD R8 2 REGAL HAWK Doomben R1 7 HALF CIRCLE R5 2 GLORIOSA HONEY R6 12 SPECIAL DAD R7 3 INNOCENTLY R8 3 TELFIRE R9 4 ANCIENT TITLES Kyneton R1 10 SILVER ELEGANT R2 7 FIVECLOCKSOMEWHERE R3 10 RAPID GIRL R4 2 OKILLY DOKILLY R5 9 MIDNIGHT MARMALADE R6 5 PRINCE OF SCRIBES R7 13 CHEEKY LAUREN R8 6 CALABISCA Penola R1 2 MR CONTROLLER R2 5 SERENADES R3 8 ZENAL R4 5 BLUSHING NEMO R5 6 LIONETTE R6 1 DIAMONDS AT DAWN R7 3 JARAQ STAAR Quirindi R1 10 OUR SHINING LIGHT R2 6 HILLSTAND R3 7 STAND BY YOUR MAN R4 3 PRE NUP R5 1 MIDNIGHT AVENUE R6 6 SUN VEGAS R7 5 TEEPEE GEEGEE R9 8 AIN'T NO SUNSHINE A years worth of equal 2nd or 3rd raters, explains the several missing races. A repeat of yesterday's strike rate would be pleasing.
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#24
23rd February 2007, 11:33 AM
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One of the problems with Oz racing is surely that the pools are so small that an hour or so before the race there may be nothing to match.
For example, at this moment, the first at Quirindi has a whole $30 in kitty. Doesn't this effectively stymie the idea that Maria encouraged of set and forget? P.S. Nice work yesterday, Mark
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#25
23rd February 2007, 01:07 PM
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Mark does a Maria (2 day trial)
Quote:
First I look at the the deduction factor ( which I use as the PP)then the the actul fav with the lowest odds and the horse with the highest amount of money on it. When a horse has all these stars aligned, it is obviously the favourite.Same for second fav and third fav. Things get interesting when one horse has, say, the lowest odds, another has the highest reduction factor and a third has the most money on it. then I have to make a personal call. BTH all this only takes a minute as I only look at a race for the first time 3-4 minutes before the start. Regards
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#26
23rd February 2007, 07:51 PM
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Quote:
Not a good day. 37 selections 20 bets 4 winners (80% win rate) Loss of $26.33 New bank would be $3102, and bets would remain the same. Winners in my top 2 were down. Winning 3rd picks were up, hence the small loss today. I still believe there is merit in this and will be starting from scratch on Monday.
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#27
24th February 2007, 12:09 AM
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mark u r joking when u said not a good day...i made 200 plus on your selections ty very much and that is big bikkies for me....ty again
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#28
24th February 2007, 03:19 AM
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Mark,
Just some observations - for what it's worth. I have looked at thousands of races now through an access database of Betfair prices and fluctuations. If you layed every horse in every race in the final minute before they jump, you'd make a killing. You just need a huge bank to cover the longshot liability. Laying favourites, you get close to breaking even with a very slight profit. An interesting observation is that the average price traded on any runner is extremely close to the final price, which surprised me greatly. Especially as I thought the longer priced horses go out to 100/1 and 200/1 in the final minutes, but what is shown is not necessarily what's traded. If you LAY every horse in the $3.00 to $8.00 range, you make a decent profit also, but if you back favourites over $3.00 you also make a profit. This is with no other filters and every aussie horse race Betfair have a market on. One thing stands out massively though, I could not understand how I made a killing laying certain horses, as the database showed almost breakeven with just a smidgen of profit. The answer lay (forgive the pun) in obtaining better (or worse) than the average traded price or final price. Being able to weight my bets according to underlay, I made significant profit, and testing this over thousands of races, it solidified my philosophy. The Golden Goose doesn't lay it's eggs with 5 minutes to go, or as they are loaded, the bird flies in an erratic pattern dropping golden eggs along the way, if you have the will to bring a basket and spend time collecting those eggs, it all adds up to pure gold 
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#29
24th February 2007, 12:03 PM
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Well, i was going to give day 3 lays for the 2 day trial, but the site I use for the form just refuses to open. grrrrrrrrrrrr
Chrome, I would like nothing better than to lay every runner at the back prices in the last minute or so, but I just cannot type fast enough. I reckon a team of experienced Betfairian's working together would be able to clean up making last minute books on just about everything.
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