I think someone did a study on here recently and found that backing Beadman on horses at $6+ over the last 6 months or so produced a VERY nice profit.

Geez, Beadman on a horse over $6? Must be about 4 rides a month!

In reply to the original question..........he didn't help Prince Arthur much the other week. Or should a comment like that go in the How Sydney Racing Is Run thread? Hottest case I've seen in years, and what was said?
You guessed it.

If a punting life was just so easy...

Jockies run hot and cold from week to week and even day to day. All of them perform better at some tracks and are very average at others, depending on their riding style which suits certain type of runners better than others etc. Some jockeys ride better in the wet than they do on dry tracks and vis-a-vis.

Like horses, from ride to ride I doubt jockies will ever have a static rating that can be put on them for mechanical use in stats.

Ok, I accept that.. In the ongoing quest for the perfect system one sometimes runs off on tangents that are fruitless endevours...

Now let me rephrase the original.. In my rating system I add two kilos for Beadman and I give Josh Parr and Tye Angland their allowance back because I believe they perform like seasoned jockeys...

On looking at races won by Beadman I'm tempted to give the runners another 2kgs.. That's 4kgs for Beadman or 2.67 lths bonus just because Beadmans riding... Which begs the question "how much does Beadman lift a horse?"

And so we are back full circle.

Kind Regards all
OzPunter

Of course there is the ebb and flow of form for both horses and jockeys.
That's just a natural occurrence.
No horse, no jockey, no thing is perfect.

You have to reverse the situation and ask "how often does this jockey stuff up compared to chance of horse"?

Beadman is miles ahead whichever way you look at it.

Did he stuff up on Prince Arthur - I'm not so sure.
The odds were ridiculously unders especially when looking at the credentials of his opposition.

Beadman drops the horse out to last with the horse throwing it's head around uncomfortable with the slow pace. Beadman hunts up on the fence, the pace a crawl, horse still uncomfortable. Beadman tracks his main chances but gets boxed in by two horses. A wall of horses, but PA was not going like a winner 200m out. He also copped two bad buffetings and the horse directly in front drops back onto him at a crucial point.

I don't think PA was ever going to win that race at any point. Been over the replay several times. You can see Beadman riding him out and the horse not responding.

The slow pace, beat the horse in my opinion.

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OzPunter,

If you want to quantify how much he lifts a horse

Ordinary Win Probability 50.44%
Ordinary Place Probability 82.45%

Beadman Win Probability 57.75%
Beadman Place Probability 89.15%

Beadman "lifts" a horse to win an extra 7.31%
Beadman "lifts" a horse to place an extra 6.70%

__________________
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Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

The best jockey will nearly always return unders on the tote. George Moore or Beadman, the end result is the same. Too many followers that never bet to form or ratings or price. Must admit though, the bloke is ************ good.