Interestingly, todays selection of lone leaders [any barrier] and backmarkers from outside barriers where there is more than 1 leader, without any study of the form of the race or these horse's form, produced the following results from these 3 meetings:

Casterton
4/8 1440 Super Mario (8)" L 9.20w 3.00p
5/6 2603 Semper Paratus (7)" L 6.10w 2.10p
6/6 35x2 Soul Prince (4)" L 1.90p
Gunnedah
7/12 2112 Miss Sarah Jane (8)" L unp.
8/15E x045 Last Little Indian (2)" L 3.80p
Sale
4/7 6x36 Bourbanbretty (10)" L unp.
5/7 353x Our Black Douglas (NZ) (12)" B unp
6/12 3250 For Now (9)" L 3.10p
7/2 10x6 Royal Lakes (8)" L 4.10p
9/4 7341 Hoaks (18)" B 13.40w B 3.70p

A good day for the win or place bettor [Unitab prices].

Monday 14/7/07

A couple of pathetic meetings but lets have a look out of interest [no form study].

Pakenham
7/7 90x0 Baron Ruthven (16)" B
8/8 1009 Cavalier Queen (12)" L [1100m If she can cross cross over to lead quick enough]
9/3 9x53 Voukefalos (14)" B

Port Macquarie
7/1 4x16 General Ledger (11)" B
8/1 3314 Calder (8)" L
9/10 3354 Ravinsky (NZ) (18)" L [1400m If he can cross over]
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9/10 3354 Ravinsky (NZ) (18)" L [Scratched].

Crash

This is a very interesting thread.

When you look at the lone leaders, do you take into acount their distance record?

like you see horses that can run 1200 metres but die in a hole over 1300 metres, so if they are the lone leader in a 1300 metre or greater distance do you still select them?

Wise one

Todays and Sunday's selections were just the runners that met my original criteria, without the slightest look at their form for anything, including suitability over the distance. track. condt. etc. Whether the selections are good first up, second up or anything else. Takes me about 10min. max.

Naturally for betting purposes it would be a good idea to scrutinize the form suitability for the races they are now running in which would produce less runners to bet on but produce higher overall win SR. Then again, considering Sunday's results, it might be better to ignore the form completely!

Well I did finally have a peek at the form of today's runners and I 'm going to back them. Anything over 5/1 I'll back ew. The Leader Cavalier Queen's last win over 1100m was also from the outside barrier [same class] with the same jockey, so I'll take that bet too.

I've been picking up handfuls of very nice priced winners over the last 12mths. now that I'm concentrating on pace in my form study.

Port Macquire is SLOW so I'll leave that meeting alone as 2 bets are top weights and haven't any proven wet track form.

crash,

Do you mind telling me where you get your form for determining if it is a leader, on pace, midfield, backmaker ?

Or how you determine the classification from form data available.

Thanks

I have been using Past the Post for about a year: http://www.pastthepost.com.au/ There is about 5 different form guide options.
I use 'fields' to get the basic lists I've shown here and I mainly use 'Time-long form' [last 10 starts and includes adjusted times for distance and other time considerations too] for serious form study. Most horses are rated [dry or wet ratings] and almost all have running position [L, P, M, B]. The site is cheap for the info available so it doesn't have scratchings.

Todays 3 selected runners were 60/1 16/1, 18/1 so they didn't really firm into betting propositions but I did have a small e/w on the 16/1 for zero result. The track was dead 4 too.

crash,

Thanks for the answer.

I'll check them out. Interestingly I checked those horses on Racing and sports and found that

7/1 4x16 General Ledger (11)" B - regarded as on the pace
8/1 3314 Calder (8)" L - - regarded as on the pace but not the only one.

Interestingly though if you use the AES and AFS figures Calder was far superior to the other horses and was an obvious leader.

7/7 90x0 Baron Ruthven (16)" B - regarded as an Off Midfield ( Backmacker in this race)
8/8 1009 Cavalier Queen (12)" L - regarded as n the pace but so were a lot of other horses.
9/3 9x53 Voukefalos (14)" B - regarded as midfield but AFS suggest a strong finisher.
Just thought I would mention it as it would suggest that different places regard horses as different types of runners.

Good Luck.

Thanks for the site Crash, good free course diagrams and time info on there

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