Partypooper.....I'm enjoying having a rant about longheld views...mates not interested in my theories and usually buy me a beer to shut me up...that works.
Your idea on faves would stand up if the price in every race was 2/1 the favourite.
What about races where the favourite is Evens..that would imply that the fave wins one in every two races...or 4/6 would mean the fave wins 3 of every five races?
If you go down the 'one in three faves wins a race' road then you are taking unders every time you back a horse at less than 2/1...the logical extension is that the higher the price of the favourite the better the value you are getting...this flies in the face of our herd instinct that says the more people that predict a certain outcome then the more likely it is to occur.
Winning fave Stats tell us that 2 out of 3 times the herd is wrong.
Might be a system in long priced favourites?

Thought of a system once where you(on the TAB) back the Friday paper poll topper for the last race Saturday.
Friday's picks are done on Thursday in a rational calculated way...unless the cadet/coffee boy is busy then he picks as quick as he can...in that case may pay to add up your favoured tipsters who have a reputation to consider.
The last race Saturday sees a lot of drunk money hitting the TAB...full of dutch courage playing up their winnings and going for the big collect...mugs chasing money...and all-ups distorting the pool.
You see blokes late every Saturday lurch their way to the terminal with a glance at the screen for the tote fave and on goes their money...the cumulative effect of the drunk and desparate money sees the fave firm and in come the fluctuation watchers adding to the momentum as the 'fave's' price tumbles.
A good time to get a bit of 'value' about the journo's Thursday pick.
Be interesting to see some work on a system using those rules.

You make sense WaggaMick
You must be Rich.
But somehow you don't sound like a winning Punter even though you seem to understand everything a heeuvva lot much better than most.
I hope I'm wrong and you are a winner.
Then when I go and search through your stuff, maybe I can be a winner too.

Nope, don't see it.

The proportion of winning is in direct relation to the price. A 5/1 favourite will win less than one in three, a 4/6 favourite will win more than one in three. You'll lose less, the shorter the price because of price bias, so what?

It is an illogical extension to assume that the higher the price, the more value.
Now, if you were to take advantage of price anomolies elsewhere, that's a whole different ballgame, but to assume a higher price means more value is an invalid assumption.
Many factors are reasons for higher prices, field size being just one.

Let's say we have a favourite at evens in a ten horse field, and in another race the favourite is 4/1 in a ten horse field.
Does this make the second favourite overs????
No, because they win less.

The horse is clearly overs if it is 4/1 with the tote but 7/1 elsewhere.

Considering price only that is.

The biggest mistake made is to assume that bigger prices are more value, and smaller prices are less value. The shorter the price, the less you lose.

The only way to take advantage is to find either a form edge, or a price edge.
In other words, find somewhere where they have mispriced the horse, rather than just accepting that a big price is value.

if you can get the best odds of every horse that starts between 1/1 - 7/2, then you need never do the form

What this means, is getting the best price available, not just backing all the 7/2 shots!

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Mooee,
Not rich!
I'd be ToorakMick or VaucluseMick!
I have a tendancy to think outside the square...which leads to more questions than answers.
I'm in a syndicate with a couple of two year olds and have a 410 bet every now and then.
Learnt(and still learning)from my many punting mistakes.

and typing mistakes!
$10 not 410

How do you talk to your fellow syndicate members?

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Just as the soon to be drunk money hits the greyhounds around 5pm each Friday. It's amazing what happens to the pools with lots of $10' and 20's being thrown in. People love fav's and the #1 box around that time of night.

Thank you Mark.

Its gives me the thought that in that price range using the IAS - OPENING market then multiplying that by 1.2 and ONLY betting those at that price or better.

Whether you bet those at over 7/2 E/W would be a judgement call .

Food for thought.

Cheers and thank you .
darky.

Darky,

You need higher odds than those unfortunately.
Multiplying by 1.2 still shows a loss.
You would need to get set on all horses at those odds, even the firmers, and that just doesn't happen, unless you secure early odds and 1.20 is available.

The figure is more like a multiplier of 2.0

To justify this, I went back through the IAS data I had and recorded where a price multipier of 1.2 or more was available on Betfair.

__________________
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Now with over 419,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/05/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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Optimistically!
Owned and trained greyhounds...owned and worked pacers...now in a thoroughbred syndicate.
You learn to take the good with the bad...EI, shin soreness, rashes, etc, etc.
Racing (owning, punting and training) is better than all the philosophies and religions when it comes to coping with everyday life. You develop a fatalism to cope with the bad and develop an appetite for risk that when it pays off is well celebrated and recognised for the transient thing that it really is.
PS..thats not how I talk to my fellow syndicate members...they'd sack me on the spot.