Morning Michaelg,
Just mulling around your trainer lay thingy and I realized that the trainer with the best ranking on BF more often than not scores the worst on the neural trainer ranking. What's more the trainer with the worst ranking on BF scores max points on nuerals.
Don't know what this means (maybe it's just me misreading the data) but it does get scary for your system.
As an example Geelong R1 #5. Last on BF and 1st on TA neural.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Flem R5 #4 shows 1st trainer ranking on BF and last on the neurals?????
******???

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Hi, Two Bets.

Yes, the neurals can be very puzzling. I think they are based on the trainer's record at the distance and also at the track, whilst Betfair ranks the trainer by his/her's overall strike rate regardless of distance or track. Betfair also shows the trainer's (and jockey's) strike rate over certain periods including the last 100 races.

I would be more inclined to believe Betfair's ratings than the neurals, but others might disagree.

For the time being, I'm discontinuing the bet method.

Lay method.

Yesterday there was one accident from the 7 races for a profit of 2.30 units.

There have now been 16 smiles (Maria elegantly call losses "accidents" so I'll call successes "smiles", and hope it'll bring luck) from 18 races for a profit of 8.20 units.

Interestingly, if every horse in the 18 races including the fave had been backed to Win, then the outlay would have been $240 for a return on Unitab for $299.90.

Today's races:
Donald R6
Donald R8
Penola R5
Penola R6
Penols R7
Devenport R8

A very bad day yesterday - 2 accidents from 6 races for a loss of 4.70 units.

There have now been 20 smiles from 24 races for a profit of 3.50 units.

One race today:
Casterton R3.

I have been looking on-and-off at another lay Method which should make us very skeptical because of its illogical rules. They are:

1 ) No Maidens
2 ) Minimum of 9 runners.
3 ) Minimum of 13 points in the DFS poll.

For some reason these selections have not performed very well. For example, there were 10 selections yesterday - they were all beaten. Unfortunately I have kept no records. I have e-mailed NSW TAB a couple of weeks ago to see if their DFS archives can be assessed, but to date there has been no reply. Does anyone know if this can be done?

Out of interest, there are 2 selections today. I will list them and see how they go...

Casterton R4 no.1 - Boyd's Bay
Casterton R8 no.1 - Peratin

Hopefully the Forum Curse won't strike.

LAY

A bad day yesterday. The fave won the sole qualifying race for a loss of $1.70 units.

There have now been 20 smiles from 25 races for a profit of 1.80 units.

No qualifying races today.

LAY DFS Poll
Yesterday's two selections were beaten for a profit of 1.90 units.

Today's selections are:
Seymour R6 no.1 - Miss Gundowring
Mt Isa R3 no.2 - Turn The Dial
Mt Isa R4 no.2 - Olympic Vision
Mt Isa R6 no.5 - Golden Time

Correction - Mt Isa race 3 number 2 is Sundae Senor, and as there are only 8 runners it is NOT a selection.

Today
Mt isa
r5-1 - 3.00not fav
r6-1 - 2.25f
r7-2 - 2.80f
Seymour
r1-1 - 2.20f
r5-5 - 3.00f
r8-2 - 3.50f

maybe just started at the winning time.

I read system where horse must be between $5-$10 and in the top five ratings or selected in the top three by two pro tipsters. Fields with 7 runners or less are out.

Hi Feather ,

Your plan seems to be going well.

Can you say what the other rule about Trainers is once the $2.00-3.80 price of the possible selections have been targeted.

Cheers.

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Cheers.