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  #1  
Old 18th April 2008, 09:07 AM
Stix Stix is offline
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Default The sky is falling.... Throw your hands up in the air...

The get out the darts call when a track is Wet is the biggest Phurphy in racing. Why?

Some horses that "perfer" the better going are often scratched from races because of the track being soft and not their ideal surface

Conversley there are horses that are scrathched or threatened to be scratched when the track is firm and fear of jarring up because it is not their ideal surface.

Some horses get through the heavy going better than others as some run better on top of the ground than others.

There appear to be a lot of people who use logic and (rating/handicap)methods when assessing races, but throw their hands up in the air when the tracks are wet.........why?! Why doesn't the same "logical" methods not apply to assessing selection on Wet tracks? Are the methods actually flawed?

Some people on this forum and the Horse Racing Forum say "NEVER bet on wet tracks". Is it because their method/stats/research doesn't stack up when the track is worse than dead..... Things like the following are offered up:
"Knew I shouldn't have bothered posting becasue of Wet Tracks"
"Bring out the darts, its a wet track"
"I go fishing/golf when it rains"

I must admit my method works in any condition (keeping detailed records since 2000). I'm not here to promote my method or record, just wondering why it is...

So I ask again..... are they biased against Wet track because their method doesn't stack up on slow-heavy tracks.... think the answer is YES!
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  #2  
Old 18th April 2008, 02:40 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Wink

Hi Stix, I prefer wet tracks and always bet more. "The wetter, the better".
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  #3  
Old 18th April 2008, 03:23 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Stix.

I must confess I was one of the Believers AGAINST too until Marcel Plante from trb gave me very nice letter explaing the ins and outs of wet track betting

Cheers.
darky.
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  #4  
Old 18th April 2008, 04:03 PM
Stix Stix is offline
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Thing about this thread....oh, and thanks Darky and Mark for your thoughts (positive or otherwise)...... is that I can bet my bottom dollar (it's a long way down), that the people that are - not so much aimed at - but will find themselves in this category - HAVE READ THE THREAD and "bothered" not to reply or post..... which is validation in a way.

Winter must be like hell for their missuses !!!
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Old 18th April 2008, 05:37 PM
crash crash is offline
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Talking

Not my missus old sun, believe it or not, she picked 6 winners from 8 races in Melb. the week before last. I was floored! She seems to have developed an uncanny ability for form-line form study. She's leaving me for dead lately, that's for sure.

Last edited by crash : 18th April 2008 at 05:47 PM.
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  #6  
Old 18th April 2008, 06:49 PM
Privateer Privateer is offline
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I fail to see why posters are apparently annoyed that nobody has come forth to challenge the “bet in the wet” theory. If something works for those of you that DO bet on rain affected tracks, GREAT JOB! I don’t bet in the wet for a number of statistical reasons but in the end it also boils down to my belief that it adds an additional risk to a bet and is a risk that can be eliminated. Minimising the risk factors are the key to making a profit as is the self discipline required to stick to your guns. That is simply MY view and I don’t want to force anybody to agree with me.

It is also a matter of personal preference. We all have our idiosyncrasies. Some won’t bet at Moonee Valley. Some swear against betting on the footy. Others steer clear of apprentice jockeys or horses resuming from a spell. Whatever it is, it is a choice and does not require a detailed interrogation or explanation.
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