The idea is just to reduce liability by as much as you can.

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Yeah, it does work a treat.
Don't panic if it goes against you and your profits will far outweigh your losses.
That's why I posted my surprise, something this good and simple is kicking butt

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Sorry, yes I mean 110% on the back side DOH!

No, never seen a $1.02 lose yet.
In fact, I watch every race in-running with a bot, and I can't ever remember a $1.01 losing.
I'm sure they have, but I've not seen it, and I've watched thousands of races.
Plenty lose at $1.10 and $1.20, even saw a $1.05 go down the gurgler last night, but not at $1.02.

If a $1.02 gets beat, I only lose the back stake.
I get the full original lay stake, so there's no risk of actually losing too much at all.

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Gotta laugh.
I raised the issue of trading several years ago.......and was howled down. Oh well.

Chrome, many a 1.01 has been beaten. I once saw 2 go down in the same race! A runner was way out in front, traded at 1.01........and fell at the last! The now new leader was also well ahead of the rest, traded at 1.01.......you guessed it, came a cropper at the last, leaving the next horse to go on and win. It is rare but they do get beaten.

I believe it because I've read the data in the files, but I haven't seen it happen live.

Might be dangerous, I might start laying $1.01 everywhere

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Where I find massive shifts like this is in sprint races, say 1000-1400m

Very rarely in 2000m+ races.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

I need the formula for laying two horses in the place market, now i know i can't make a profit if they are both placed but if one of them is placed i would like to return a set profit plus the liability lost on the other runner.

For example 2 runners priced @ $1.50 and $1.70

If the $1.50 horse runs a place the other horse will retun me say $10 plus the liability i had to pay out on the plaed horse.

Hi Chrome, is your method just for favourites? is there a price range?

Thanks for sharing your ideas as usual.

__________________
All generalizations are dangerous.

Yes, I concentrate on favourites.

As it won't damage my returns, let me explain exactly what I do...

I go over to the UK markets about lunchtime and look at the favourite in each race.
The markets are usually around 110% or better to back (lays prices offered).
I place a lay bet a tick above the back price.
I place another lay bet 10 ticks below that.

So $3.50 and $3.00 for example.

An hour or two I go back and see what's matched and what's not, some ,markets will have scratchings, so all my bets on that market disappear.

So I resubmit any missing lay bets, and adjust any unmatched bets a tick above the offered back price.

I go through this cycle every hour or two until at least one of my two bets for each race is matched.

So far - so good.

You'll find some bonanza lays, such as matched at $3.00, favourite is deposed as favourite and trades at $6.00 at the off.
You've got a massive advantage here.

You'll find some lays that give little or no advantage, favourite trades close to the layed price anyway.

You'll also find favourites that trade just below the layed price, frustrating, but that's life.

However, you already have a massive advantage by laying the drifters early.


That's that covered, the next part is a doozy

Say your $3.50 lay bet is matched and there is a power of money for you horse late, the $3.50 lay bet is matched, the $3.00 lay bet is matched and it's trading at $2.50 now.
You have double the liability at over the odds!!!

Well ,you've layed the horse at $3.25 for twice the amount, or possibly $3.10 if you lay to fixed liability rather than stake.

What I do is place an opposing win bet to keep in play for the second lay bet at the original odds.

So we have a $10 lay at $3.50
We have a $10 lay at $3.00
We have a $10 back (in play) at $3.50

Risky?

Not really, I've layed thousands of horses this way.

Just laying all favourites in market percentages of 110% (approx) gives a longterm profit of around 5% after commission.
Using the 10 tick below strategy returns around 7.5%

Taking advantage of the inplay insurance bet returns around 15% after commission is paid!

Why, because not only do we have the laid lower advantage, not only have we reduced the liability on the shorteners (enough times to make it worthwhile)

AND......

A lot of horses will trade at $3.50, trade at $3.00 and end up trading at $3.50 or $3.75 or $4.00 or better.

So you have laid a $3.50 horse at $3.00.
or a $3.75 horse at $3.00
or a $4.00 horse at $3.00

You have to your armoury
The early advantage of laying drifters
The early advantage of getting both bets triggered and the odds drifting.
The advantage of in play to try and lay lower

You have the ones that trade lower and never trade higher in running.

This happens rarely enough providing you've gone through all other insurance options to make it well worthwhile.

You'll easily return 15% including commission if you don't get rattled by 4 or 5 winning favourites in a row.

Follow it to the letter, and you'll make a killing longterm.

A word of warning: NEVER use in play to get you out of trouble, Murphy's law will see you come unstuck. Treat it mentally like insurance in BlackJack. If it gets matched, it's a bonus, if it doesn't - move on.
Make sure if you're below the trading price by the time they jump, you've cancelled the in play bet also.
Make sure none of your original bets are not in play - can happen if you haven't unticked the keep bets box.

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your selection will be the one with last 3 runs totalling 10 or more
but there must be at least 2 placings in those 3 runs...ie 253
119 228 343 you get the drift i cleaned up today and got back 75 of the 200 i lost the other night .....