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#1
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Ok, that's a bit cheeky, but let me explain, I've been working a plan that I guess you could say is "mechanical" although it is constantly being "tweaked". I am now into my 5th year and I've just doubled my bets again (from Jan 1st) and hit the jackpot today at Bunbury, hence this post!
As I bet for the place my overall POT is very small but consistent. (the same plan by the way also shows a win POT slightly higher overall) To be able to live off this I will need to Double my basic bets again at some point, I am worried about all sorts of things, the dreaded losing runs that I KNOW will come (ridden out heaps of em) I think I've got the patience thing under controll, but there's still a lot I need to digest. I'm just seeking any snippets that may help, (I realise that no-one is going to broadcast their winning method) I'm talking about attitude, etc etc. eg. 4 bets in one day recently, ......... I kid you not 3x4ths + 1x3rd (but 7 runners) all in photos, all backed for the place............. hhhuuuu, devastating, but the effect on my data base....................... hardly a ripple. But still it affected me mentally, I just need a little push somehow! |
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#2
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Don't bet the rent money and you will be fine Party!
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#3
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Partypooper,
If you need to double your bets to create a reasonable income, I would suggest not doing so. Let me explain.... You would be far better finding something that gives you more action, twice as many bets, rather than just doubling your exposure. Of course, it must be something stable and proven. There are many advantages to this 1.Your results are less likely to have temporary aggressive peaks and troughs denting confidence (although you will still have good and bad days) 2. The impact of adverse results will be less to the overall outcome on the day or week. 3. You probably won't be so nervous as just doubling your bets. 4. If you don't have confidence in anything other than what's proven to yourself over the last 5 years, and I can understand this, then don't just double your bets straight away, use percentage of bank (not reducing) until you are betting double or more, this will also build confidence. I would be worried about the effect of higher bets on your returns. If you need assistance you know my email, I have a place method that breaks even at TAB prices, but you do need to watch the markets, rather than place all bets in advance.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 426,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2025 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
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#4
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I know your frustration by the way.
One of my methods selected Going Spending at Caulfield, but did not qualify on price. On the tote it was $8.50, $8.70 and $9.00 Would have turned a losing day into a winning one, but longterm has to be the goal,and if I continually backed the horses further out in the market, it's a big fat loss! So I have to be patient and let these winners not disturb me ![]() P.S. Should have known when Read opened it at $4.50 ![]()
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 426,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2025 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
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#5
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I agree with Chrome and increase your percentage as your bank grows....
well done by the way ,,5 years and growing with just place betting,,,out of interest if you had backed your selections just for the win or even e/w would that have affected your bottom line ?? and another thing,,,if your bank is fairly substantial ,,dont leave it in Mr Reads bank account ,,, put it in an good interest bearing account while its sitting there,,,seems fairly basic i know but it didnt dawn on me to do this for over year ![]() |
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#6
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Thanks Chrome, as you know I have been looking for another method for a while now, and although some are promising it usually involves watching the markets which at the moment I can't do........ I do see your point about spreading the investments though.
maverick, yes as it turns out my basic plan shows a very similar POT for the win as well so could easily just swap to EW, however one of those "tweaks " I was talking about from Jan 1st, was 1 unit the win 2 units the place. It just happens to have started off on a good note so I am much more confident now. I've never left a cent in IAS, I can't see any product that has an edge there?? (though I agree there could be other advantages when the stakes get a bit higher.) Crash, fortunately I collect rents rather than pay em' bad news is ;it took me 40 years to get there! |
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#7
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Quote:
800 bets returning 103% (unitab odds) or with a few filters 510 bets returning 115% Cheers |
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#8
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This is a subject close to my heart and I'm pretty sure young Crash skirted the concept in one of his informative posts. To beat my drum again, I only bet on the place for what I call favorites so I'm subjected to pitiful returns but of course the strike rate more than copensates.
Crash's theory went along the lines of the fewer times you bet the less you lose. (If I've got the wrong end of the stick Crash I apologise, it's just something that stuck in my mind and was a long time ago). Since most peoples wagers come down to a trade-off between strike rate and dividends it sems to me that it makes sense "work wise" to aim for he highest strike rate possible (ie. the fewest number of bets). Reduced work load for same return !
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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!" |
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#9
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[QUOTE=TWOBETS]
Crash's theory went along the lines of the fewer times you bet the less you lose. (If I've got the wrong end of the stick Crash I apologise, it's just something that stuck in my mind and was a long time ago). QUOTE] When it comes to form study it makes sense. Careful selection of 2 or 3 races to study and bet on is far better than betting a whole race meeting card where a lot of the races have runners with very little exposed form or even no exposed form. It often means the difference between profit and loss. System betting with lots of bets might be a different cup of tea, depending on the system. I haven't enough experience with systems to draw any definite conclusions regarding number of bets. |
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#10
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Quote:
808 bets returning 103% (32% SR) 60% place retuning 97% 420 bets 115% (38% SR) 64% place 102% all unitab figures over the last 10 months. |
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