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  #21  
Old 3rd August 2009, 06:28 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Thorns, with further research I've restricted the Inside Barriers Method to sprint races of a maximum distance of 1,400 metres. Unfortunately due to circumstances I haven't kept records.

Out of interest, yesterday there were 8 qualifying races - an inside barrier horse won all 8 races. There were three good divvies (Unitab):

Quirindi R6 - $14
Kalgoorlie R5 - $30
Bendigo R2 - $69.

Last edited by michaelg : 3rd August 2009 at 06:49 AM.
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  #22  
Old 3rd August 2009, 11:46 AM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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I know I'm showing my ignorance but, can you please explain "odds on races".
I think I know what you mean, I just want to know for sure.
Its a good selection method, nice and simple, just how I like it.

Cheers,
Mike.
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  #23  
Old 3rd August 2009, 02:03 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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An odds-on race is when the fave's price is less than $2.00.

In fact, the fave in one of yesterdays's races was odds-on, so it would have been a non betting race.

By the law of averages, the inside barrier should more or less win only half these races. Maybe slightly more than half because they might be favoured in sprint races in spite of the many factors that can come into play. Maybe its just currently going through a very lucky period.

Last edited by michaelg : 3rd August 2009 at 02:11 PM.
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  #24  
Old 3rd August 2009, 06:11 PM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Ta, Michaelg, thats what I thought. But I've made lots of mistakes since I've taken racing seriously. to tell the truth I had more success and fun when it was just a larf.

Good luck to you,
Mike.
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  #25  
Old 4th August 2009, 06:36 AM
syllabus23 syllabus23 is offline
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G,day Mike...This is worth a look for someone embarking on a punting career,It looks pretty innocuous to me,but the Mods may percieve some threat to their fiefdom.Lets hope not.
http://www.goarticles.com/cgi-bin/showa.cgi?C=1685742
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  #26  
Old 4th August 2009, 07:46 AM
nomdeplume nomdeplume is offline
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Michael,

Perhaps heavy tracks should be excluded from the mix?

Also, as backing six or seven runners per race, perhaps leave any runner paying less than say, $6, out of contention?

It seems as though it is the long priced winners, which will be needed to give this idea any long term viability.

Without doing any checking, one would suggest this system cannot work. Will be pleased to be proven wrong.

That said, have noticed there are quite a few eligible races today, Tuesday.
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  #27  
Old 4th August 2009, 08:08 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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When I was testing the system I also looked at rain affected tracks to see if there was any merit in omitting them, but over a period of time they showed an acceptable profit.

As to a minimum price - I dutch-betted the selections and they showed a slightly better result than level betting, so I decided the only limit on prices would be odds-on. In fact, I also experimented "on paper" with a loss-chasing stakings plan using dutch-betting which was even more profitable.
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  #28  
Old 4th August 2009, 08:50 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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Were you using a divisor style plan sych as 6 point divisor?
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  #29  
Old 4th August 2009, 10:09 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Thorns, I was using a very simple plan "on paper". I started with a target of $100, and when there was a losing bet I added the loss to the $100 which then became the new target. The best results I had was when the fave was drawn in an outside barrier so that the outlay was not large, and when I struck a winner the return was quite pleasing.

However, at one time I used a different plan with real money. Some time ago I mentioned on this forum that one of my friends was "field betting" with his own stakings plan which he revealed to me. All I did was to vary this plan to adapt to fields of 13 and 14 runners so that I only bet 7 horses which was those drawn in the inside barriers. I stopped because this type of betting doesn't really appeal to me.
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  #30  
Old 4th August 2009, 10:19 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Thorns, I was using a very simple plan "on paper". I started with a target of $100, and when there was a losing bet I added the loss to the $100 which then became the new target. The best results I had was when the fave was drawn in an outside barrier so that the outlay was not large, and when I struck a winner the return was quite pleasing.

However, at one time I used a different plan with real money. Some time ago I mentioned on this forum that one of my friends was "field betting" with his own stakings plan which he revealed to me. All I did was to vary this plan to adapt to fields of 13 and 14 runners so that I only bet 7 horses which was those drawn in the inside barriers. I stopped because this type of betting doesn't really appeal to me.
Damn, I asked that question hoping you were going to disclose this one lol
Cant fool you it seems
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