Using Nick Aubrey's method we get

22% SR over 1000 races

100% chance of hitting 5 runs of 15 outs

60% chance of 1 run of 22 outs.

See prog. "The Risk of Ruin" (Google it).

cheers demodocus - thats very interesting - i googled risk of ruin and found plenty of good reading....looks like a late night of mathematical reading ahead....

i guess i have been lucky so far - only ever 9 outs -

BOBBY,

it's statistics!! You, personally may go for ever without reaching the statistically proven number of outs, but someone else will pay for your "luck" to make the numbers correct.

On the other hand, it may strike when you least expect it and last for far longer that the stats indicate.

Hope it never does!

I'm sure that actuaries all over the world will be fascinated by your insight. The mortality tables are obviously rubbish ..... I hope nobody tells the AMP (I have shares in them).

I'm not averse going into a fight, but in this instance, I cheerfully decline.

To fight an unarmed man is totally unsporting.

There are only two things certain in life "death and taxes"

Next time think again!
Good luck with your punting!

Hi Bhagwan,

You put up a "system" based on Place Rank = 1. It seems to have disappeared from this thread.

I have modified it further to achieve >100% POT.

Thanks for the idea

Looking forward to this weekend to see if there are any qualifiers!

Is this it?

Place Ranking = 1

LS Win less than 0.8 L

Age 4 YO

4 + Career Starts

SP today = $2 - $8

Cheers
darky

Hi Darkydog,

I think it was

Place Rank = 1

Barriers 1-4

Last Start placing 4-9

it gave a 25% S/R and a POT = 52%

Hi TryTry Again,
I always like to write Bhagwans methods down (Always food for thought)
In fact I often put the selections down here on the forum Saturdays amongst the better systems I have.
Cheers
darky

Hi Darkydog,

Look at including these rules to Place Rank = 1

8-14 starters

Last start 4th to 8th (I eliminated 9th last start from Bhagwan's method)

<= 2000m

3yo to 6yo

barriers 2,3 and 4 (I eliminated barrier 1 from Bhagwan's original method)

These extra rules increased the S/R and the POT%

Cheers