luv2bet,

lomaca has began to analyze the results over the past few months, and is continuing to do so.

Backing every "raw" selection (there have been 1811 of them since 19/04/10) would have produced a very small profit with each-way betting, comprising of a profit on Win but a loss on Place. So it looks promising, and with filters/rules it might turn ot to be successful.

For example, lomaca has discovered that omitting last start winners would have improved the Win results, but broke-even with Place, which is an improvement.

I've e-mailed lomaca with the following information:- if a selection's "placed-points" from its last two starts had single figures, then over the past two days there were 10 selections for one winner of $3.30, and three placegetters for a total return of $4.44.

However, if the "placed points" came to 10 points or more, there were eight selections for three winners totalling $21.30, and six placegetters for a total return of $13.40.

We'll see if anything good comes from it, providing lomaca's data base can identify the amount of "placed-points".

Lov2bet, judging on last start winners, and placed-points from the last two days results it would seem that the method doesn't do all that well with horses that are fancied in the market, however I'll still look at your suggestion about the Unitab ratings.

michaelg,
If his data base cant calculate the 'placed points' maybe it could calculate a minimum acceptable price, ie has to have sp of >$4.
are those figures that you mentioned based on best tote prices or from one of the totes?
cheers

luv2bet, the results are based on only one TAB.

lomaca has contacted me and suggested filters that would have shown a good profit for win and place betting.

1) No Maidens
2) No NTD races.
3) No last start winners
4) Max days of 10 since last start.

There was fifth, but looking at my results it eliminates too many races so I'll omit it for the moment, but will identify it with the selections to see how it goes. This filter says that the selection must have more than 2 points in the 12 Months ratings than the second horse.

With the 4 filters it reduces today's selections from eight to one. It is:

Sun Coast R8 no.1

michaelg
sunshine coast race 8 no 1 has a 12m of 29. there are a number of other horses with a higher 12 rating.. is this right

Luv2bet, you're right.

My mistake - it's number 4. It's $17 in the pre-post market.

Please ignore filter 4 - I misread lomaca's e-mail. I must be getting getting old.

Well done Michael,

Great work and I do appreciate the time you put in and the worth of your posts well done!!

Cheers
Twodogs

Thanks, Twodogs.

The selection won, paying $9.20 and $3.40. Thanks must also go to lomaca for coming up with the filters.

Out of interest, from the seven non-selections (those that the filters eliminated) there were two winners totalling $8.50, but three selections totalling $4.70 for a loss of $2.30.

Unfortunately there are no selections today.

Today's selections are:

Hamilton
7/11*
8/11*

Taree
4/7
7/4*
8/11

Townsville
5/8

* = 2.5 points gap between top and next horse in the 12 Months ranking.

Have you looked at when the 12 month rating is also the Base Rating? Im thinking that horses in their best form may prove to be under value. Any thoughts?